{"title":"Voting Amid COVID: The Response of Voters to Voting during the Pandemic","authors":"Charles Stewart III","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3931936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3931936","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is a tour of mostly public opinion evidence about how COVID affected the experience of voters as they cast ballots in 2020. Topics covered include turnout, reasons for not voting, precautions observed in polling places, and the confidence voters felt about whether the layout of voting locations protected them against the coronavirus. Key findings include: (1) individual turnout analysis using the CES shows that respondents were less likely to vote in counties with high COVID death rates; (2) Democrats who knew someone who died of COVID were less likely to vote, but not Republicans; (3) voters with poor health, less interest in the news, and higher educational attainment were more likely to vote by mail, as were Democrats and those living in counties with his COVID death rates; (4) highly engaged Democrats were more likely to vote by mail than unengaged Republicans, while the opposite was true of Republicans; and (4) voters were highly confident that the layouts of voting locations protected against the spread of COVID. An interesting complicating finding is that many of the factual and attitudinal answers to survey questions about voting were identical whether or not the respondent’s report of voting was validated. This raises important methodological and theoretical questions about not only the validity of the findings in this paper, but also the findings in research that relies on self-reports about the experience of voters (or election officials, for that matter) on Election Day.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122194763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Enríquez, Horacio Larreguy, J. Marshall, Alberto Simpser
{"title":"Online Political Information, Electoral Saturation, and Electoral Accountability in Mexico","authors":"J. Enríquez, Horacio Larreguy, J. Marshall, Alberto Simpser","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3897408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3897408","url":null,"abstract":"While digital platforms have facilitated protests and challenged democratic norms, mass online campaigns could also enhance electoral accountability. We evaluate the electoral impact of non-partisan Facebook ads informing millions of Mexican citizens of municipal expenditure irregularities in 2018. Vote shares of the least malfeasant incumbent parties increased by 6-7 percentage points in directly targeted electoral precincts. This effect was greater where ads targeted 80%---rather than 20%---of the broader municipal electorate. These substantial impacts of high saturation social media campaigns reflect interactions between citizens that spill through social networks, including to untargeted precincts, rather than responses by politicians or media outlets.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130346819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Vox Populi, Vox Dei? Tacit Collusion in Politics","authors":"C. Johansson, Anders Kärnä, Jaakko Meriläinen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3871061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3871061","url":null,"abstract":"We study competition between political parties in repeated elections with probabilistic voting, allowing a multidimensional policy space and multiple political parties. This model entails multiple equilibria. When parties hold different opinions on some policy, they may take different policy positions that do not coincide with the median voter’s preferred policy platform but converge towards it. In contrast, when parties have a mutual understanding on a particular policy, their policy positions may converge (on some dimension) but not to the median voter’s preferred policy. Parties may collude with one another and take a position that differs from what the median voter prefers, despite political competition. Collusion may collapse, for instance, after the entry of a new political party. We substantiate the theoretical arguments with descriptive evidence using Swedish survey data on politicians and voters, which suggests that there is competition on some dimensions and collusion on others.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122156933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rising Political Populism and Outmigration of Youth as International Students","authors":"Murat Demirci","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851858","url":null,"abstract":"Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. To answer this question, student migration from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia is explored, applying the Synthetic Control Method. The estimates show that the rise of populism in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Limited evidence for worsening higher education options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign education to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. <br>","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128385818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Did Industrialization Increase Support for the Radical Left? Evidence from the 1917 Russian Revolution","authors":"Paul Castañeda Dower, A. Markevich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3856903","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3856903","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the only universal election in Russia in the era of industrialization. Using a novel dataset on the 1917 Constituency Assembly elections, we find that a larger share of industrial workers dramatically increased voting for the radical left party, the Bolsheviks. We explore within-region variation in voting and use instrumental variables estimation, based on the presence of Carboniferous-era rock strata, to establish a causal relationship. We show that industrialization did not lead to a simple shift to the left but also polarized the electorate, pointing to a mechanism of political instability in revolutionary Russia.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"471 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123052433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Выборы 2020 в США – заинтересованный взгляд из России. Дополнительные материалы (Russian Interested Observers’ Perspective on Us 2020 Elections – Supplemental Materials)","authors":"K. Yanovskiy, Sergei Zhavoronkov, Alexei Kassian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3815314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3815314","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> Дополнительные материалы содержат ссылки, иллюстрации, дополнительные обзоры соответствующие разделам статьи. В частности, в разделе «Выставка достижений и «Акт для народа» представлены четыре мини-интервью с гражданами США из разных штатов показывающего что издержки на получение удостоверения личности с фотографией повсеместно минимальны, равно как и издержки на внесение официально проживающего в списки избирателей. Такие издержки необходимо понести для решения множества не связанных с выборами проблем (вождение автомобиля, покупка в аптеке лекарств по рецептам). Так что требование предъявления такого удостоверения на избирательном участке не является ограничением доступа меньшинства к возможности проголосовать, в то время как голосование без удостоверения создает риски искажения воли большинства избирателей. <br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The Supplemental materials contain additional references on the article’s sections' issues, illustrations, and additional reviews. Materials to the section ‘For People Act’ contains mini-interviews with US citizens from various states. The interviews prove the costs to acquire Photo-ID are insignificant as well as costs to get placed into the voters’ register. The Photo-ID is necessary for driving the car, buying prescribed medicines in the Pharmacy, etc, so costs to get this ID is definitely not minorities’ ‘voters suppression’. The ‘Right’ to vote without Photo ID, on the opposite, creates opportunities to undermine honest elections, to suppress the will of the majority of the voters.<br>","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"432 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125760467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Voting Behavior in One-Shot and Iterative Multiple Referenda","authors":"Umberto Grandi, J. Lang, Ali Ozkes, S. Airiau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3747713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747713","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a set of voters making a collective decision via simultaneous vote on two binary issues. Voters' preferences are captured by payoffs assigned to combinations of outcomes for each issue and they can be nonseparable: a voter's preference over an issue might be dependent on the other issue. When the collective decision in this context is reached by voting on both issues at the same time, multiple election paradoxes may arise, as studied extensively in the theoretical literature. In this paper we pursue an experimental approach and investigate the impact of iterative voting, in which groups deliberate by repeating the voting process until a final outcome is reached. Our results from experiments run in the lab show that voters tend to have an optimistic rather than a pessimistic behaviour when casting a vote on a non-separable issue and that iterated voting may in fact improve the social outcome. We provide the first comprehensive empirical analysis of individual and collective behavior in the multiple referendum setting.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123521475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout","authors":"L. Kaplow, S. Kominers","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3559771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559771","url":null,"abstract":"Prominent theory research on voting uses models in which expected pivotality drives voters’ turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs’s paradox: in practice, many individuals turn out for reasons unrelated to pivotality, and their votes overwhelm the forces analyzed in pivotality-based models. Accordingly, we examine a complementary model of large- N elections at the opposite end of the spectrum, where pivotality effects vanish and turnout is driven entirely by individuals’ direct costs and benefits from the act of voting itself. Under certain conditions, the level of turnout is irrelevant to representativeness and thus to voting outcomes. Under others, however, “anything is possible”: starting with any given distribution of preferences in the underlying population, there can arise any other distribution of preferences in the turnout set and thus any outcome within the range of the voting mechanism. Particular skews in terms of representativeness are characterized. The introduction of noise in the relationship between underlying preferences and individuals’ direct costs and benefits from voting produces, in the limit, fully representative turnout. To illustrate the potential disconnect between the level of turnout (a focus of much empirical literature) and representativeness, we present a simple example in which, as noise increases, the turnout level monotonically falls yet representativeness monotonically rises.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133014545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Testing Post-Election Audit Methods","authors":"K. Dopp","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3531205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3531205","url":null,"abstract":"Three proposed methods of post-election audits were tested for efficiency and effectiveness using 200 random audit sampling trials for each method of each randomly simulated election having 20K, 100K, and 250K total ballots cast in very close, close, semi-close, and not close elections — with both correct and incorrect reported election outcomes. One risk-limiting election integrity (EI) ballot comparison method, one risk-limiting EI precinct comparison method, and two ballot sampling methods — the ballot-polling audit (BRAVO) and the split-the-difference (STD) ballot polling methods — were tested and compared. Results show that EI risk-limiting ballot comparison audits are a more effective and efficient method of auditing elections than either ballot polling method. However, the STD ballot comparison method is more effective per ballot audited than the BRAVO method.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130272785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"There’s (Rarely) a New Sheriff in Town: The Incumbency Advantage for County Sheriffs","authors":"M. Zoorob","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3485700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3485700","url":null,"abstract":"County sheriffs are prominent elected officials in almost all states, with typical duties including jail operation, responding to 911 calls, and making arrests. Unlike other law enforcement agencies, sheriffs enjoy considerable discretion in employment and policy decisions and do not report to a mayor or other higher official. Instead, the voters serve as the chief mechanism for accountability, and Sheriff associations often argue that their democratic selection makes them uniquely answerable, impartial, and authorized to restrain other parts of government. Using an original dataset of more than 5,500 Sheriff elections from across the US, I produce the first estimates of the levels and variation of the incumbency advantage for Sheriffs. In so doing, I show that the average tenure of elected Sheriffs far exceeds the average tenure of appointed police chiefs. In light of widespread reports of misconduct by elected sheriffs and their employees, these results suggest that elections may not be sufficient to produce responsible local government.","PeriodicalId":396883,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Voters & Elections (Topic)","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124677711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}