Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen, Carlos Manuel Pinheiro, Alberto Franco Pozzolo
{"title":"Do multinational banks create or destroy shareholder value? A cross-country analysis","authors":"Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen, Carlos Manuel Pinheiro, Alberto Franco Pozzolo","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12091","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fmii.12091","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We question whether the international diversification of multinational banks creates or destroys shareholder value. Based on a sample of 384 listed banks from 56 countries we provide new and robust evidence that bank cross-border activities create shareholder value, as shown by an economically and statistically significant premium for international diversification. Our results are confirmed controlling for bank fixed effects, time-varying bank characteristics, reverse causality, functional diversification, and instrumenting for the choice to expand abroad. The increase in shareholder value is slightly larger for banks in the middle range of international diversification and in the case of expansion towards less developed countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 5","pages":"295-313"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12091","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87498200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Too big to fail: Measures, remedies, and consequences for efficiency and stability*","authors":"James R. Barth, Clas Wihlborg","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12083","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper evaluates whether reform efforts addressing “too big to fail” actually enhance the stability of the financial system, and whether trade-offs exist between stability and efficiency. We also present and discuss various measures of bank size and complexity since such measures are essential for implementing appropriate corrective remedies. As we will show, there are no unambiguous measures of size or complexity that can fully capture a bank's contribution to systemic risk. Their effects on efficiency are also impossible to capture with certainty. While we recognize the need for additional research and empirical evidence, we do identify weaknesses and strengths of proposed and implemented reforms that could have consequences for bank stability and efficiency.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 4","pages":"175-245"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12083","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109170336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Managerial gaming of stock and option grants","authors":"Yisong S. Tian","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12081","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we examine managerial gaming of different types of equity grants, both at the initial award of the equity grants (<i>front-end gaming</i>) and the unwinding of the equity holdings in the future (<i>back-end gaming</i>). We find that the potential gains from stock price manipulation vary substantially across different types of equity grants. While traditional stock option grants are less vulnerable to front-end gaming, they are more vulnerable to back-end gaming than other types of equity grants (e.g., restricted stock grants). To prevent or discourage managerial gaming, firms should preset all terms of the equity grant in advance and link its future payoff to average stock prices (e.g., by granting Asian stock options).</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 3","pages":"127-152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12081","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109168775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Survive the droughts, I wish you well: Principles and cases of liquidity risk management","authors":"Bruce Tuckman","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12082","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Short-term, liquid assets are highly valued by lenders, but pose liquidity risk management challenges to borrowers. Basic principles to meet those challenges are to conduct liquidity stress scenario analysis; to form business plans for each stress scenario; to hold enough capital to sustain the planned, post-shock balance sheet; and to hold a large enough liquidity reserve to survive the transition from the pre- to the post-shock balance sheet. Historical failures, like Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, and MF Global have a lot to teach about implementing these principles. While regulatory frameworks constrain liquidity positions, they are no substitute for firm-specific liquidity risk management.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 3","pages":"153-172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12082","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109168776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does the bond-stock earnings yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?","authors":"Sébastien Lleo, William T. Ziemba","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12080","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main ways. First, we explicitly relate crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a definition and a measure of robustness for these models. We apply our statistical test and measure the robustness of selected model specifications of the Price-Earnings (P/E) ratio and Bond Stock Earning Yield Differential (BSEYD) measures. This analysis shows that the BSEYD and P/E ratios, were statistically significant robust predictors of corrections on the US equity market over the period 1964 to 2014.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 2","pages":"61-123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12080","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109169798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Development and Functioning of FX Markets in Asia and the Pacific","authors":"Richard M. Levich, Frank Packer","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12079","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fmii.12079","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global foreign exchange (FX) trading volume in traditional FX products and derivatives in Asia and the Pacific has expanded rapidly over the last fifteen years, more so than in other regions. Asian currencies also have experienced exceptional growth in offshore turnover, including non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Trading activity on this scale spread across many countries and currencies underscores the need for a well-functioning infrastructure and exceptional risk management processes. While settlement risks are mitigated for the vast majority of turnover through systems like CLS Bank, the Asia Pacific region would benefit by having more countries and currencies become CLS enabled or tradable under other Payment versus payment (PVP) systems. Though less pronounced than during the global financial crisis, FX markets in the region experienced added turbulence during the “taper tantrum” period of 2013. High turnover currencies tended to depreciate more after taper announcements; though volatility rose more sharply in currencies with low turnover. The FX market is a prominent venue for carry trades that are subject to crash risk. While there is some evidence of herding behavior exacerbating this risk over the past decade, the measures calibrated more recently do not suggest exceptional crowding into carry trades ahead of the “taper tantrum” in 2013. At the same time, our measures of crowdedness for the carry trade show considerable variation over time. Making crowdedness measures publicly available might be advisable.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"26 1","pages":"3-58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12079","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75716939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Chiaramonte, (Frank) Hong Liu, Federica Poli, Mingming Zhou
{"title":"How Accurately Can Z-score Predict Bank Failure?","authors":"Laura Chiaramonte, (Frank) Hong Liu, Federica Poli, Mingming Zhou","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12077","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Bank risk is not directly observable, so empirical research relies on indirect measures. We evaluate how well Z-score, the widely used accounting-based measure of bank distance to default, can predict bank failure. Using the U.S. commercial banks’ data from 2004 to 2012, we find that on average, Z-score can predict 76% of bank failure, and additional set of other bank- and macro-level variables do not increase this predictability level. We also find that the prediction power of Z-score to predict bank default remains stable within the three-year forward window.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"25 5","pages":"333-360"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12077","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91889077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Moon Jung Choi, Eva Gutierrez, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
{"title":"Dissecting Foreign Bank Lending Behavior During the 2008–2009 Crisis","authors":"Moon Jung Choi, Eva Gutierrez, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12076","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyzes the lending behavior of foreign-owned banks during the recent global crisis. Using bank-level panel data for 51 countries, the paper explores the role of affiliate and parent financial characteristics, host location, as well as the impact of parent geographic origin and reach on foreign banks’ credit growth. Overall, the analysis finds robust evidence that foreign banks curtailed the growth of credit relative to other banks, independent of the host region in which they operate. Banks from the United States reduced loan growth less than other parent banks. Neither the global nor regional reach of parent banks influenced the lending growth of foreign affiliates. Parent capitalization and not parent funding explained the behavior of foreign bank credit growth during the global crisis. However, funding did affect the lending behavior of domestic and foreign banks in host countries, with those relying more heavily on deposits suffering a smaller decline in bank lending. Although not the focus of the paper, we also find that government-owned banks played a countercyclical role in all regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"25 5","pages":"361-398"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12076","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91889079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hafiz Hoque, Sarkar Humayun Kabir, El Khamlichi Abdelbari, Viktor Manahov
{"title":"Islamic and Conventional Equity Market Movements During and After the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Newly Launched MSCI Indices","authors":"Hafiz Hoque, Sarkar Humayun Kabir, El Khamlichi Abdelbari, Viktor Manahov","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12075","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the relationship between the Islamic and conventional equity indices by employing the newly launched MSCI Global Islamic Indices which began in 2008. We argue for the case of cointegration supported by fundamental, category and habitat theories, and against cointegration due to the fundamental difference between Islamic and conventional stocks in terms of debt ratio, accounts receivable and interest bearing securities. We find Islamic and conventional equity markets move together despite fundamental differences and given that market microstructure, dividends, capital gains, taxation and governance systems are different across the markets. Almost simultaneous movement of the permanent and cycle components of Islamic and mainstream equity indices has been supported by the application of the Beveridge Nelson (BN) time series decomposition technique. Theoretically, the volatility of Islamic equities should be lower due to their low leverage ratio. Surprisingly, permanent parts of the Islamic indices appear to be more volatile during the crisis period and less volatile during the post-crisis period.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"25 4","pages":"217-252"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12075","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109168023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Comparison of the Efficacy of Liquidity, Momentum, Size and Book-to-Market Value Factors in Equity Pricing on a Heterogeneous Sample: Evidence from Asia","authors":"Bruce Hearn","doi":"10.1111/fmii.12078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12078","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper compares the size and book-to-market value factors of Fama and French (1993) alongside Momentum of Jagadeesh and Titman (<span>1993</span>) with two Liu (<span>2006</span>) liquidity factors formed from 1 year rebalancing and 1 month rebalancing respectively. A heterogeneous and comprehensive sample of the top blue chip stocks of all national Asian equity markets with further differentiation undertaken between sub samples formed for Japan only and Asia excluding Japan for period January 2000 to August 2014. Our empirical results suggest that multifactor time invariant pricing models based on augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework are ineffective in explaining the cross section of stock returns in the presence of significant inter and intra-market segmentation. However an alternative model specification based on a time varying parameter specification and using same sets of factors yields significant enhancements in explaining cross section of stock returns across universe. We find that momentum factor largely lacks significance while a time varying two factor model, based on CAPM plus liquidity factor, is optimal. The liquidity factor being that of Liu (2006) and annually rebalanced. Our findings are important for investment managers seeking appropriate factors and modelling techniques to hedge against risks as well as firm's financial managers seeking to reduce costs of equity capital.</p>","PeriodicalId":39670,"journal":{"name":"Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments","volume":"25 4","pages":"253-330"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/fmii.12078","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109231441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}