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Comparing Approval Procedures for New Drugs 新药审批程序比较
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-16 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12746
N. Houy, I. Jelovac
{"title":"Comparing Approval Procedures for New Drugs","authors":"N. Houy, I. Jelovac","doi":"10.1111/twec.12746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12746","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse how drug approval procedures influence the incentives of pharmaceutical firms to commercialise new drugs in the presence of international reference pricing. Since 1995, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) coordinates a centralised approval procedure for specific new drugs in the EU. With such a centralised procedure, the EMA grants simultaneous drug approvals for all EU countries. Alongside, non‐centralised procedures coexist for approvals of other new drugs and approvals can be sequential. We focus on the effects of the exogenous timing of drug approvals, either simultaneous or sequential, and we compare the effects of centralised versus non‐centralised procedures on the firms’ incentives to commercialise new drugs in different markets. In a context of international reference pricing, we show that a centralised procedure limits the number of countries where the firm commercialises new drugs, compared to a non‐centralised procedure. We also show in a simplified framework that countries are better off with non‐centralised procedures, while pharmaceutical firms in theory prefer the drug to be approved everywhere as soon as possible, as in an early centralised procedure. This is in line with the stated objective of the EMA to generate savings for the pharmaceutical firms.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128558575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
How Openness to Trade Rescued the Irish Economy 贸易开放如何拯救爱尔兰经济
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3296972
K. McQuinn, Petros Varthalitis
{"title":"How Openness to Trade Rescued the Irish Economy","authors":"K. McQuinn, Petros Varthalitis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3296972","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3296972","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we examine the performance of the Irish economy over the period 2008 to 2014. In particular we examine whether the recovery observed was due to the successful adoption of structural reforms in labour and product markets or whether the improved performance was due to a rebalancing of the Irish economy, post 2008, away from the disproportionate influence of the construction (non-tradable) sector and back to the more productive tradable sector? Prior to 2007 had seen the emergence of a significant, property-related credit boom which resulted in the Irish economy being increasingly influenced by the non-tradable sector. This was in sharp contrast to the earlier period of the Celtic tiger, which had mainly relied on export-orientated growth. We use a small open economy DSGE model with a tradable and a non-tradable sector to examine this issue. Our results suggest that the financial crisis acted as a rebalancing mechanism for the Irish economy, with the tradable sector contracting less and recovering quicker than the non-tradable sector. Our model-based simulations indicate that the Irish recovery is mostly export-driven with structural reforms playing a very minor role in stimulating growth in the immediate period after the crisis.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129716975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Revisiting Time as a Trade Barrier: Evidence from a Panel Structural Gravity Model 重新审视时间作为贸易壁垒:来自面板结构重力模型的证据
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/ROIE.12547
H. Oberhofer, M. Pfaffermayr, Richard Sellner
{"title":"Revisiting Time as a Trade Barrier: Evidence from a Panel Structural Gravity Model","authors":"H. Oberhofer, M. Pfaffermayr, Richard Sellner","doi":"10.1111/ROIE.12547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ROIE.12547","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we revisit the evidence on the effects of time spent on border-crossing procedures for international trade using a theory-consistent structural gravity model. We exploit a rich panel data set including domestic trade flows and employ a recent econometric estimator that exhibits favorable asymptotic properties. The results indicate a significant negative effect of the time required for border procedures that is driven by the time needed for document preparation. We find that an additional day spent on those procedures corresponds to an ad valorem tariff equivalent of 0.82 percentage points. The parameters of our structural model are used to simulate three counterfactual scenarios, quantifying the effect of past and potential future trade facilitation efforts for middle, low and high income countries. Full endowment general equilibrium effects suggest that lower and middle income countries benefit most in all scenarios in terms of trade and welfare. In times of stagnating multilateral and bilateral trade liberalization efforts, unilateral implementation of trade facilitation carries the potential to induce an alternative stimulus for trade and welfare, especially for low and middle income countries.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134178296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia 贸易冲突对发展中亚洲的影响
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3339178
A. Abiad, Kristina Baris, John Arvin Bernabe, D. Bertulfo, Sheila Camingue, Paul Neilmer Feliciano, M. Mariasingham, Valerie Mercer-Blackman
{"title":"The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia","authors":"A. Abiad, Kristina Baris, John Arvin Bernabe, D. Bertulfo, Sheila Camingue, Paul Neilmer Feliciano, M. Mariasingham, Valerie Mercer-Blackman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3339178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339178","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of the current trade conflict on developing Asia using the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output Table (MRIOT), allowing us to calculate the impact on individual countries and on sectors within countries. The analysis estimates the direct impact on all tariff-affected goods; uses input–output analysis to estimate indirect effects on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, and employment; and allows for redirection of trade toward other producers using the approach of Feenstra and Sasahara (2017). A full escalation of the bilateral United States (US)–People’s Republic of China (PRC) trade conflict would shave 1% off PRC GDP and 0.2% off US GDP. The rest of developing Asia could see small net gains thanks to trade redirection, particularly in the electronics sector. A trade war in autos and parts would hurt the European Union and Japan. The conflict has substantial negative effects on PRC and US employment, but only minor impacts on current account balances.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"175 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133847347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
Optimal Reciprocal Import Tariffs Under Variable Elasticity of Substitution 可变替代弹性下的最优互惠进口关税
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3291165
N. Aizenberg, I. Bykadorov, S. Kokovin
{"title":"Optimal Reciprocal Import Tariffs Under Variable Elasticity of Substitution","authors":"N. Aizenberg, I. Bykadorov, S. Kokovin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3291165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3291165","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the impact of reciprocal, specific or ad valorem, import tariffs on welfare among N symmetric countries (a free-trade agreement)—using the standard Krugman’s one-sector trade model, with unspecified variable-elasticity preferences (mostly under decreasing elasticity of utility). Without transport costs, any tariff is harmful, a specific import subsidy (export tariff) can be welfare-improving, whereas ad valorem tariffs or subsidies are always harmful. Under transport costs, a small ad valorem tariff can be beneficial; moreover, under sufficiently high transport costs, both kinds of tariffs can be become beneficial. The reason is mitigated distortion: excessive entry under decreasingly elastic utility.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129835629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Bad Sovereign or Bad Balance Sheets? Euro Area Interbank Fragmentation and Monetary Policy, 2011-15 糟糕的主权债务还是糟糕的资产负债表?欧元区银行同业拆散与货币政策，2011- 2015
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3152481
S. Gabrieli, C. Labonne
{"title":"Bad Sovereign or Bad Balance Sheets? Euro Area Interbank Fragmentation and Monetary Policy, 2011-15","authors":"S. Gabrieli, C. Labonne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3152481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3152481","url":null,"abstract":"Does the funding cost differential between peripheral and non-peripheral European banks reflect poor quality of banks’ assets (credit risk)? Or the quality of sovereign support in case of failure (sovereign-dependence risk)? Combining bank-to-bank loan data with supervisory information on banks’ cross-border exposures, we disentangle the role of sovereign-dependence risk and credit risk in the euro area interbank market fragmentation from 2011 to 2015. Before the announcement of OMTs, high non-performing loan ratios on the GIIPS portfolio hindered banks’ access to the interbank market and large sovereign bond holdings raised interbank rates. The OMT and TLTROs reduced both channels of fragmentation.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133154168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Empire Strikes Back: French‐African Trade after Independence 帝国反击:独立后的法国-非洲贸易
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12381
E. Lavallée, J. Lochard
{"title":"The Empire Strikes Back: French‐African Trade after Independence","authors":"E. Lavallée, J. Lochard","doi":"10.1111/roie.12381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12381","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effects of foreign influence on trade, focusing on the close relations between France and its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It shows that between 1960 and 1989 - the golden age of French-African relations - France exported more to its former SSA colonies than to any comparable countries, while they did not export more to France. This excess of French exports concerned a large variety of products, and particularly luxury goods and products in which France was least competitive. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms shows that migration explains most of this additional trade.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133047393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Effect of Free Trade Agreements Revisited: Does Residual Trade Cost Bias Matter? 重新审视自由贸易协定的影响:剩余贸易成本偏差重要吗?
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12380
P. Kharel
{"title":"The Effect of Free Trade Agreements Revisited: Does Residual Trade Cost Bias Matter?","authors":"P. Kharel","doi":"10.1111/roie.12380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12380","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits a prominent gravity model‐based empirical literature on the effects of free trade agreements by accounting for a potential bias caused by unobservable trade costs that operate through general equilibrium constraints. It embeds state‐of‐the‐art panel estimation techniques in a recently proposed two‐step remedy that features a constrained ANOVA‐type estimation. Using a dataset on manufacturing trade flows in eight sectors in 40 countries and a rest‐of‐the‐world aggregate for the period 1990–2002, it finds evidence of significant residual trade cost bias. The direction and magnitude of bias vary across sectors, with the standard one‐step approach used in the literature overestimating or underestimating the partial effect of free trade agreements by up to 110 percent. Overall, coefficients on trade costs variables are jointly significantly different between the standard method and the two‐step method. The biases in partial effect estimates translate into biases in general equilibrium effects.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121573122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Trade Law and Trade Flows 贸易法和贸易流动
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-10-13 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12886
S. Gil‐Pareja, R. Llorca‐Vivero, J. Paniagua
{"title":"Trade Law and Trade Flows","authors":"S. Gil‐Pareja, R. Llorca‐Vivero, J. Paniagua","doi":"10.1111/twec.12886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12886","url":null,"abstract":"This paper performs a structural gravity estimation of the effect of commercial law conventions on international trade flows. We focus on trade law agreements aimed to privately resolve disputes among partners: international commercial arbitration, model law and conciliation. Our results suggest three interesting traits. First, international dispute resolution mechanisms have a moderate positive impact on trade, which is stronger for similar country-pairs in terms of income. Second, this effect is not observed in agreements which do not tackle private resolution mechanisms. Third, international commercial arbitration is the most effective tool to promote trade.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123366680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Does Being an IMF Executive Board Member (Re)Pay? An Examination of IMF Loans and Repayments 担任国际货币基金组织执董会(再)成员薪酬高吗?对国际货币基金组织贷款和偿还的审查
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12629
F. Malan
{"title":"Does Being an IMF Executive Board Member (Re)Pay? An Examination of IMF Loans and Repayments","authors":"F. Malan","doi":"10.1111/twec.12629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12629","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the political economy of IMF loans and repayments using data from 99 countries over the period 1984–2014. We bring two contributions to the literature, analysing: (i) the impact of the presence of a country on the IMF Executive Board and (ii) repayment behaviour (and not only loan requests). We show evidence that loans from, and repayments to, the IMF are influenced by the presence of countries on the IMF Executive Board. In particular, the results indicate that a position on the Board increases the loan amount by approximately 0.5 points and the repayment amount by approximately 0.2 points.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123217353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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