{"title":"Financial development and poverty reduction in developing countries: New evidence from banks and microfinance institutions","authors":"Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou , Kevin Sylwester","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2016.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2016.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The literature on financial development and growth has received a lot of attention over the past two decades. Unlike growth, not much of consideration has been given to poverty reduction. Moreover, most of the past studies focus on bank and stock market development. The advent of microfinance institutions (MFIs) lets to think about the potential role MFIs can play in a countrywide economy. In this study, we consider to what extent banks and MFIs reduce poverty. We apply the instrumental variables approach, namely the fixed-effects two-stage least squares, to a panel of 71 developing countries over the period 2002–2011. Using credit to GDP as the main financial development indicator, the results indicate that banks reduce poverty when poverty is measured by the headcount ratio and poverty gap. As for the squared poverty gap, there is no significant effect of banks. On the other hand, MFIs do not appear to have any impact on poverty regardless of the measure of poverty employed. These results imply that while banks have some ability to reduce poverty, MFIs do not, at least at the aggregate level. Our results are robust to the use of assets to GDP as an alternative measure of financial development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 82-90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2016.06.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock return comovement and Korean business groups","authors":"Chan Ho Cho , Tim Mooney","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores whether business group affiliations affect the covariance structure of stock returns in Korea. We find that the stock returns of firms belonging to the same business group show positive and significant comovement. The strong comovement between group returns and firm returns is explained by correlated fundamentals. We find strong comovement among business group affiliate earnings. Moreover, variance decomposition of returns shows that cash flow news plays a relatively more important role in explaining group comovement than discount rate news, suggesting a link between stock return comovement and the “tunneling” and “propping” behaviors of business groups. Finally, return comovement increases when a firm joins a business group.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 71-81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bank regulation and financial fragility in developing countries: Does bank structure matter?","authors":"Jeroen Klomp , Jakob de Haan","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using data for 1238 banks located in 94 developing and emerging countries, we explore whether the impact of bank regulation and supervision on banking risk (measured by the banks’ Z-scores) depends on bank structure. Our findings suggest that stricter regulation and supervision increases the banks’ Z-scores. Notably capital requirements and supervisory control diminish banking risk. However, the effectiveness of other dimensions of regulation and supervision depends on the organizational structure of banks. Notably activity restrictions reduce risk of large and foreign owned banks, while liquidity restrictions have most effect on the Z-scores of unlisted and commercial banks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 82-90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.11.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling time-varying volatility in the Indian stock returns: Some empirical evidence","authors":"Trilochan Tripathy , Luis A. Gil-Alana","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper models time-varying volatility in one of the Indian main stock markets, namely, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) located in Mumbai, investigating whether it has been affected by the recent global financial crisis. A Chow test indicates the presence of a structural break. Both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models suggest that the volatility of NSE returns is persistent and asymmetric and has increased as a result of the crisis. The model under the Generalized Error Distribution appears to be the most suitable one. However, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is relatively poor.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 91-97"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock return distribution in the BRICS","authors":"George Adu , Paul Alagidede , Amin Karimu","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Stock returns in emerging market economies exhibit patterns that are distinctively different from developed countries: returns are noted to be highly volatile and autocorrelated, and long horizon returns are predictable. While these stylized facts are well established, the assumption underlying the distribution of returns is less understood. In particular, the empirical literature continues to rely on the normality assumption as a starting point, and most asset pricing models tend to overstretch this point. This paper questions the rationale behind this supposition and proceeds to test more formally for normality using multivariate joint test for skewness and kurtosis. Additionally, the paper extends the literature by examining a number of empirical regularities for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS for short). Our main findings are that the distribution of stock returns for the BRICS exhibits peakedness with fatter and longer tails, and this is invariant to both the unit of measurement and the time horizon of returns. Volatility clustering is prevalent in all markets, and this decays exponentially for all but Brazil. The relationship between risk and return is found to be significant and risk premiums are prevalent in our sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 98-109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.09.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alma Lucía Romero-Barrutieta , Aleš Bulíř , José Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
{"title":"The dynamic implications of debt relief for low-income countries","authors":"Alma Lucía Romero-Barrutieta , Aleš Bulíř , José Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Debt relief provides low-income countries with an incentive to accumulate debt, boost consumption, and reduce investment over time. We quantify this incentive effect employing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, calibrated to 1982–2006 Ugandan data, and find that long-run debt and consumption-to-GDP ratios are about twice as high with debt relief than without it, while the investment-to-GDP ratio is sixty percent lower. Our simulations show that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on debt levels but may have a lasting effect over the size of the economy, lowering GDP growth up to twenty percent over time. These results fill a gap in the debt relief literature since, to the best of our knowledge, the quantification of incentive effects is rather scarce. The paper further contributes to the literature by constructing a tractable structural model that is able to replicate the data well and captures key features of low-income countries facing the possibility of debt relief.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125500281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yun Li , Luiz Moutinho , Kwaku K. Opong , Yang Pang
{"title":"Cash flow forecast for South African firms","authors":"Yun Li , Luiz Moutinho , Kwaku K. Opong , Yang Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper applies models in the extant literature that have been used to forecast operating cash flows to predict the cash flows of South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Out-of-sample performance is examined for each model and compared between them. The reported results show that some accrual terms, i.e. depreciation and changes in inventory do not enhance cash flow prediction for the average South African firm in contrast to the reported results of studies in USA and Australia. Inclusion of more explanatory variables does not necessarily improve the models, according to the out-of-sample results. The paper proposes the application of moving average model in panel data, and vector regressive model for multi-period-ahead prediction of cash flows for South Africa firms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 24-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2014.11.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Access to financial services: The case of the ‘Mzansi’ account in South Africa","authors":"Philip Kostov, Thankom Arun , Samuel Annim","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The presence of rationing of financial services in the developing countries is a major obstacle to achieving sustainable growth. In recent years there have been co-ordinated efforts to increase the level of financial inclusion, i.e. to reduce the supply-side constraints restricting access to finance. This paper aims to understand household's latent behaviour decision making in accessing financial services, by analysing an entry level Mzansi account in South Africa. The willingness to access financial services is not taken as given, but it is instead defined by perceptions and attitudes. The Mzansi intervention is appealing to individuals with basic but insufficient financial education. Aspirations seem to be very influential in revealing the choice of financial services and to this end, Mzansi is perceived as a pre-entry account not meeting the aspirations of individuals aiming to climb up the financial services ladder.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 34-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.04.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luis A. Gil-Alana , OlaOluwa S. Yaya , Adedayo A. Adepoju
{"title":"Fractional integration and structural breaks in bank share prices in Nigeria","authors":"Luis A. Gil-Alana , OlaOluwa S. Yaya , Adedayo A. Adepoju","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper employs both fractional integration and structural break techniques in studying the daily share prices structure of the banking sector in Nigeria. Our data span between 2001 and 2012, covers periods before and after the global financial crisis. The results obtained using both parametric and semiparametric methods indicate little evidence of mean reversion since most of the orders of integration are equal to or higher than 1. Long memory is found in the absolute and squared return series. The possibility of structural breaks is also taken into account and the results show a different number of breaks depending on the bank examined. In general, an increase in the degree of dependence across time is noticed, and the most common break took place in December 2008, probably being related with the world financial crisis affecting also the banking system in Nigeria.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 13-23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2014.07.004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What hinders and what enhances small enterprises’ access to formal credit in India?","authors":"Yuko Nikaido , Jesim Pais , Mandira Sarma","doi":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rdf.2015.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate enterprise level factors affecting access to formal credit for small enterprises in India by employing a probit sample selection model. Our results indicate that enterprise size, owners’ education level, being registered under an agency and being involved in diversified activities are positively associated with access to formal credit. However, the ownership of land that can be used as collateral is negatively associated with the likelihood of receiving formal credit. This may be due to an obsolete land administration system resulting in high transaction costs of land as collateral. These results provide some insights into the factors to improve credit constraints for small enterprises in India.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39052,"journal":{"name":"Review of Development Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 43-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.rdf.2015.05.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"55056460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}