{"title":"Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Firm Performance: Evidence from Europe","authors":"Miramir Bagirov, Cesario Mateus","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2978119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978119","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends understanding of the relationship between oil prices, stock markets and financial performance of oil and gas firms over the past decade. Firstly, it studies the impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in Europe. Secondly, it examines volatility spill-overs between oil and European stock markets. As oil price changes do not equally affect all industries, the study conducts both market-level and sector-level analyses. Thirdly, it examines the impact of crude oil price changes on the financial performance measure of oil and gas firms, both listed and unlisted, from the Western European region.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"86 22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126288353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uluslararası Kıymetli Metal Piyasalarının Rejim Dinamikleri (Regime Dynamics of International Precious Metal Markets)","authors":"Ayben Koy, Güldenur Çetin, İhsan Ersan","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2992052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2992052","url":null,"abstract":"Turkish Abstract: Bu calismanin amaci, kiymetli metal piyasalarinin dogrusal olmayan yapilarini Cok Degiskenli Markov Rejim Degisim Modelleriyle (MMS-VAR) analiz etmektir. Calismanin gozlem araligi 02 Ocak 2002 – 28 Mart 2016 olup, spot altin, gumus, paladyum ve platine ait gunluk kapanis fiyatlarini icermektedir. Arastirma sonuclari, uluslararasi kiymetli metal piyasasinin daralma, ilimli buyume ve genisleme rejimlerinden olusan bir yapiya sahip olduguna dair kanitlar sunmaktadir. \u0000English Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyze whether the precious metals have a nonlinear pattern by using Multivariate Markov SwitchingVector Autoregressive Models (MMS-VAR). The observation period is between 02 January 2002 and 28 March 2016 and includes daily closed prices of gold, silver, palladium and platinum. Research results have evidence that the international precious metal market have a structure with three regimes as depression, moderate growth and expansion.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127998923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effect of CME Gold Futures and Ice Dollar Index Futures on the KRX Gold Market","authors":"Jae-Seung Baek, Myeonghoon Yeom","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2903671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2903671","url":null,"abstract":"The KRX (Korea Exchange) gold market opened in March 2014 according to the government policy legalizing financial transactions, and traded one-gram unit of real gold by Korean currency (KRW) in the exchange market. Despite the fact that the KRX gold market shows high efficiency in terms of taxes and fees in contrast to the existing gold market, studies on the KRX gold market have been rarely conducted until quite recently. We explore the KRX gold market price efficiency by showing price discovery factors in the market. According to the existing studies, the futures market has a characteristic of leading the spot market. Therefore, this study put forward a hypothesis that the return rate of the gold in the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), in which gold futures are traded at night in Korea Standard Time, would have a positive impact on the return of the KRX gold market, which starts at 9:00am the following day. In addition, this paper goes into detail about the international gold price having a negative correlation with the value of the United States (US) dollar. To test the goal of the research, both the return rate of CME gold futures at t-1 days and ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) dollar index futures at t-1 days are investigated to determine whether they have an impact on the market rate of return in the KRX gold market at t day using regression analysis and vector auto-regression (VAR) model in order to look closely at the factors that determine the market price of the KRX gold market. First, the return rate of CME gold futures at t-1 days has a positive impact of significance on the market rate of return in the KRX gold market at t day. Second, the return rate of ICE dollar index futures at t-1 days could not be confirmed to significantly determine the market rate of return in the KRX gold market at t day.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129535728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Dynamics of Commodity Spot, Forward, Futures Prices and Convenience Yield","authors":"Katsushi Nakajima","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2758433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2758433","url":null,"abstract":"This paper study commodity spot and futures price under a continuous-time setting. The model is an enhanced version of our earlier paper (2015) which was modeled through discrete time. Our model considers a firm, which use an input commodity to produce an output commodity, stores commodity, and trade futures commodity to hedge. Through dynamic programming principle and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, we derive relations between spot price and futures price. The optimal production plan and trading strategy for spot commodity and futures are also derived. The model can be easily modified to consider cash settlement or hedging by ouput commodity futures. Our model can be generalized to include multiple firms which take multiple input commodities and multiple output commodities and multiple speculators.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120963614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Production of Commodities and Multiple Interest Rate Analysis","authors":"R. Vienneau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2885821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2885821","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the application of multiple interest rate analysis to a model of the production of commodities by means of commodities. A polynomial, for the characteristic equation of the augmented input-output matrix, is used in defining the rate of profits in such a model. Only one root is found to be economically meaningful. No non-trivial application of multiple interest rate analysis is found in the analysis of the choice of technique. On the other hand, multiple interest rate analysis can be used in defining Net Present Value in an approximate model, in which techniques are represented as finite series of dated labor inputs. The product of the quantity of the first labor input and the composite interest rate approaches, in the limit, the difference between the labor commanded by and the labor embodied in final output in the full model.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116630297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comovement, Index Investing and the Financialization of Commodities","authors":"M. Bonato, Luca Taschini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2573551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2573551","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how the correlations amongst commodity futures have changed since the early 2000s. Using data from 1998 to 2011, we examine differences in the dependence structure of index and off-index commodities, and three major commodities indexes. We find that non-energy commodities included in the index exhibit an increase in comovement with the respective index, whereas commodities off the index do not. We interpret our findings as providing some evidence in support of post-2005 commodity financialization. We show that our results are robust to alternative explanations – non-trading effects and common fundamental characteristics. Finally, our results are supported by the analysis of high-frequency returns dynamics by means of the so called realised beta.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129693755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"CTT Infuses Inefficiency into Gold Futures Trading: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam, Rinku Champramary","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2849388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2849388","url":null,"abstract":"The rationale behind introduction of CTT by government of India is still unclear. But as per few experts, revenue generation was the topmost priority behind the imposition of CTT, besides checking price volatility. In this study by adopting the bootstrap, and modified GARCH methodology, we assessed the impact of CTT in non-agriculture futures commodities with special reference to gold futures traded in MCX. The study finds that CTT has increased the price volatility in gold futures and has significantly reduced the turnover in trading volume, weakening the market to great extent. The imposition of CTT not only affected the gold futures market but also contributed to the inefficiency of the market as the market has still not yet been able to digest the shock that it had received after the implementation of CTT. As per the revenue generation is concerned, if sole purpose for introducing CTT in the commodity futures market was to increase the revenue, than it is not suitable for development of commodity futures market, because CTT has already increased the transaction cost, and market players have already responded to it as volume came down approximately to 43% to 53%. We conclude that CTT has direct impact on policy aspirations as there is a need to transform Indian markets into 'price setter' from being 'price takers'.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114175335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gold Prices and Nifty – Unraveling of an Intricately Interwoven Nexus","authors":"Dr. Shehnaz S R, Dr. Suresh Kumar S","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3012959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3012959","url":null,"abstract":"With the ever changing financial architecture prevalent in the economy and opening up of new vistas of financial engineering highlighting the financial inclusion and education schemes coupled with introduction of new financial instruments, India has been able to widen the net of investments either domestic or foreign direct. The scope of investment by individuals though hovers around safe avenues such as gold, the increasing trend of investment in stock markets cannot be ruled out. However the euphoria and dysphoria associated with up rises and down falls in stock market prices, whether it is consequent to global recessionary factors or domestic political and economic scenario, often pulls or drives away investors to or from the stock markets, especially in the short run. Besides the influence of macroeconomic factors on stock prices, the influence of gold prices on stock prices has spurred the inquisitiveness of researchers all over the world. This paper presents the intricately interwoven nexus that can be established between gold prices in India and the vibrant National Stock Exchange index Nifty 50. Published historical stock index data and historical movements in the gold price per gram in Indian Rupees obtained from official websites of National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and World gold Council are used to build and develop econometric models. The experiments to identify the dynamics and intricacies of nexus between the variables establishes the impact of gold price on stock market index Nifty vis-à-vis their short-run and long-run causal relationship.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131205056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Model of Commodity Prices","authors":"G. Cortazar, Matias Lopez, Lorenzo Naranjo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2811860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2811860","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel representation of commodity spot prices in which the cost-of-carry and the spot price volatility are both driven by an arbitrary number of risk factors, nesting many existing specifications. The model exhibits unspanned stochastic volatility, provides simple closed-form expressions of commodity futures, and yields analytic formulas of European options on futures. We estimate the model using oil futures and options data, and find that the pricing of traded contracts is accurate for a wide range of maturities and strike prices. The results suggest that at least three risk factors in the spot price volatility are needed to accurately fit the volatility surface of options on oil futures, highlighting the importance of using general multifactor models in pricing commodity contingent claims.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123567616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Information Content of Fundamental News vs. Traders’ Positions in Grain Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE and COT Reports","authors":"David Bosch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3334880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3334880","url":null,"abstract":"To compare the impact of fundamental news with the publication of traders’ positions in an event study framework, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with t-distributed error terms is applied to corn, soybean, and wheat futures returns from January 1996 to June 2014. While fundamental news remain an important source of information for market partici-pants in grain futures markets, the results of this analysis reveal that the information content of traders’ positions from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report has gained importance in the corn and wheat futures market. The impact of traders’ positions seems to be more pronounced in grain futures markets, where the presence of commodity index traders is higher and those of professional speculators (money managers) lower.","PeriodicalId":388404,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Commodity Markets (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129909597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}