Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, G. Mayr, A. Zeileis, T. Simon
{"title":"Thunderstorm environments in Europe","authors":"Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, G. Mayr, A. Zeileis, T. Simon","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Meteorological environments favorable for thunderstorms are studied across Europe, including rare thunderstorm conditions from seasons with climatologically few thunderstorms. Using cluster analysis on ERA5 reanalysis data and EUCLID (European Cooperation for Lightning Detection) lightning data, two major thunderstorm environments are found: wind-field thunderstorms, characterized by increased wind speeds, high shear, strong large-scale vertical velocities, and low CAPE values compared to other thunderstorms in the same region, and mass-field thunderstorms, characterized by large CAPE values, high dew point temperatures, and elevated isotherm heights. Wind-field thunderstorms occur mainly in winter and more over the seas, while mass-field thunderstorms occur more frequently in summer and over the European mainland. Several sub-environments of these two major thunderstorm environments exist. Principal component analysis is used to identify four topographically distinct regions in Europe that share similar thunderstorm characteristics: the Mediterranean, Alpine–central, continental, and coastal regions, respectively. Based on these results it is possible to differentiate lightning conditions in different seasons from coarse reanalysis data without a static threshold or a seasonal criterion.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131890225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. W. Casselman, J. Lübbecke, T. Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, S. Wahl, D. Domeisen
{"title":"The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models","authors":"J. W. Casselman, J. Lübbecke, T. Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, S. Wahl, D. Domeisen","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source for teleconnections, including towards the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region, whereby TNA sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively correlated with ENSO in boreal spring following an ENSO event. However, the Pacific–Atlantic connection can be impacted by different ENSO characteristics, such as the amplitude, location, and timing of Pacific SST anomalies (SSTAs). Indeed, the TNA SSTAs may respond nonlinearly to strong and extreme El Niño events. However, observational data for the number of extreme ENSO events remain limited, restricting our ability to investigate the influence of observed extreme ENSO events. To overcome this issue and to further evaluate the nonlinearity of the TNA SSTA response, two coupled climate models are used, namely the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI). In both models the TNA SSTAs respond linearly to ENSO during extreme El Niño events but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña events for CESM-WACCM. We investigate differences by using indices for all major mechanisms that connect ENSO to the TNA and compare them with reanalysis. CESM-WACCM and FOCI overall represent the teleconnection well, including that the tropical and extratropical pathways are similar to observations. Our results also show that a large portion of the nonlinearity during La Niña is explained by the interaction between Pacific SSTAs and the overlying upper-level divergence.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129441667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source perspective","authors":"Astrid Fremme, P. Hezel, Ø. Seland, H. Sodemann","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Here we present a pilot study of the sensitivity of summer monsoon precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV; 110–122∘ E and 27–33∘ N, eastern China) to climatic boundary conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), pre-industrial conditions, and the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 emission scenario from two different climate models. Using a quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic based on backward trajectories, we are able to interpret changes in precipitation amount and seasonality in terms of processes at the source regions and during transport that contribute to YRV precipitation. Thereby, we gain insight into influential processes and characteristics related to precipitation variability and the sensitivity of the summer monsoon hydroclimate in East Asia to boundary-condition changes in models. Comparing 10-year time slices similar to present-day conditions from the NorESM1-M and CAM5.1 models to reanalysis data reveals overall similar moisture source regions, albeit with a tendency for a more local precipitation origin in the climate models. The general characteristics of the moisture sources and moisture transport in the YRV are relatively stable across different climate forcings, both concerning the mean location of source regions, transport distance, and the relative contributions of moisture from land and ocean areas. Changes regarding regional precipitation contributions from the East Asian continent indicate that precipitation recycling responds to different climate forcings. We interpret these findings such that models to first order respond with a scaling rather than reorganisation of the hydroclimate to climatic forcing, while land–atmosphere interactions play an important, but secondary, role. If the model simulations are accurate, the moisture source regions and thus the general processes of precipitation in the YRV could remain relatively stable across different climates. However, some differences in moisture source conditions are larger between the different climate models than between different climatic boundary conditions in the same model. It may therefore be possible that current climate models underestimate the potential for non-linear responses to changing boundary conditions, for example due to precipitation recycling. Although limited by the relatively short analysis period, our findings demonstrate that the diagnosis of moisture sources provides a useful additional perspective for understanding and quantifying precipitation mechanisms and the hydroclimate simulated by models and enables more detailed evaluation of model simulations, for example using paleoclimate records.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130748665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?","authors":"Florian Ruff, S. Pfahl","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Historical extreme flooding events in central European river catchments caused high socioeconomic impacts. Previous studies have analysed single events\u0000in detail but have not focused on a robust analysis of the underlying extreme precipitation events in general, as historical events are too rare for a\u0000robust assessment of their generic dynamical causes. This study tries to fill this gap by analysing a set of realistic daily 100-year large-scale\u0000precipitation events over five major European river catchments with the help of operational ensemble prediction data from the ECMWF. The dynamical\u0000conditions during such extreme events are investigated and compared to those of more moderate extreme events (20 to 50 year); 100-year precipitation\u0000events are generally associated with an upper-level cutoff low over central Europe in combination with a surface cyclone southeast of the specific\u0000river catchment. The 24 h before the event is decisive for the exact location of this surface cyclone, depending on the location and\u0000velocity of the upper-level low over western Europe. The difference between 100-year and more moderate extreme events varies from catchment to\u0000catchment. Dynamical mechanisms such as an intensified upper-level cutoff low and surface cyclone are the main drivers distinguishing 100-year\u0000events in the Oder and Danube catchments, whereas thermodynamic mechanisms such as a higher moisture supply in the lower troposphere east of the\u0000specific river catchment are more relevant in the Elbe and Rhine catchments. For the Weser and Ems catchment, differences appear in both dynamical and\u0000thermodynamic mechanisms.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125429791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Hauser, F. Teubler, M. Riemer, P. Knippertz, C. Grams
{"title":"Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives","authors":"S. Hauser, F. Teubler, M. Riemer, P. Knippertz, C. Grams","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Atmospheric blocking describes a situation in which a stationary and persistent anticyclone blocks the eastward propagation of weather systems in\u0000the midlatitudes and can lead to extreme weather events. In the North Atlantic–European region, blocking contributes to life cycles of weather\u0000regimes which are recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent patterns of the large-scale circulation. Despite progress in blocking theory over the\u0000last decades, we are still lacking a comprehensive, process-based conceptual understanding of blocking dynamics. Here we combine three different\u0000perspectives on so-called “blocked” weather regimes, namely the commonly used Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives, complemented by a novel\u0000quasi-Lagrangian perspective. Within the established framework of midlatitude potential vorticity (PV) thinking, the joint consideration of the\u0000three perspectives enables a comprehensive picture of the dynamics and quantifies the importance of dry and moist processes during a blocked weather\u0000regime life cycle. We apply the diagnostic framework to a European blocking weather regime life cycle in March 2016, which was associated with a severe forecast bust\u0000in the North Atlantic–European region. The three perspectives highlight the importance of moist processes during the onset or maintenance of the\u0000blocked weather regime. The Eulerian perspective, which identifies the processes contributing to the onset and decay of the regime, indicates that\u0000dry quasi-barotropic wave dynamics and especially the eastward advection of PV anomalies (PVAs) into the North Atlantic–European region dominate the\u0000onset of the regime pattern. By tracking the negative upper-tropospheric PVA associated with the “block”, the quasi-Lagrangian view reveals, for\u0000the same period, abrupt amplification due to moist processes. This is in good agreement with the Lagrangian perspective indicating that a large\u0000fraction of air parcels that end up in the negative PVA experience diabatic heating. Overall, the study shows that important contributions to the\u0000development take place outside of the region in which the blocked weather regime eventually establishes, and that a joint consideration of different\u0000perspectives is important in order not to miss processes, in particular moist-baroclinic dynamics, contributing to a blocked regime life cycle.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114351742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future","authors":"N. Tim, E. Zorita, B. Hünicke, I. Ivanciu","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The southern African climate is strongly impacted by climate change. Precipitation is a key variable in this region, as it is linked to agriculture and water supply. Simulations with a regional atmospheric model over the past decades and the 21st century display a decrease in the past precipitation over some coastal areas of South Africa and an increase over the rest of southern Africa. However, precipitation is projected to decrease over the whole southern part of the domain in the future. This study shows that the Agulhas Current system, including the current and the leakage, which surrounds the continent in the east and south, impacts this precipitation trend. A reduction in the strength of the Agulhas Current is linked to a reduction in precipitation along the southeast coast. The Agulhas leakage, the part of the Agulhas Current that leaves the system and flows into the South Atlantic, impacts winter precipitation in the southwest of the continent. A more intense Agulhas leakage is linked to a reduction in precipitation in this region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122093234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection","authors":"Charles G. Gertler, P. O’Gorman, S. Pfahl","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Much of our understanding of atmospheric circulation comes from relationships between aspects of the circulation and the mean state of the atmosphere. In particular, the concept of mean available potential energy (MAPE) has been used previously to relate the strength of the extratropical storm tracks to the zonal-mean temperature and humidity distributions. Here, we calculate for the first time the MAPE of the zonally varying (i.e., three-dimensional) time-mean state of the atmosphere including the effects of latent heating. We further calculate a local MAPE by restricting the domain to an assumed eddy size, and we partition this local MAPE into convective and nonconvective components. Local convective MAPE maximizes in the subtropics and midlatitudes, in many cases in regions of the world that are known to have intense convection. Local nonconvective MAPE has a spatial pattern similar to the Eady growth rate, although local nonconvective MAPE has the advantage that it takes into account latent heating. Furthermore, the maximum potential ascent associated with local nonconvective MAPE is related to the frequency of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), which are ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones with large impacts on weather. This maximum potential ascent can be calculated based only on mean temperature and humidity, and WCBs tend to start in regions of high maximum potential ascent on a given day. These advances in the use of MAPE are expected to be helpful to connect changes in the mean state of the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in important aspects of extratropical circulation.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126917083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, Chris J. Short
{"title":"Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification","authors":"William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, Chris J. Short","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study aims to understand the fluctuations observed in Hurricane Irma (2017), which change the tangential wind speed and the size of the radius of maximum surface wind and therefore affect short-term destructive potential. Intensity fluctuations observed during a period of rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma between 4 and 6 September 2017 are investigated in a detailed modelling study using an ensemble of Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) convection-permitting forecasts. Although weakening and strengthening phases were defined using 10 m wind, structural changes in the storm were observed through the lower troposphere, with the most substantial changes just above the boundary layer (at around 1500 m). Isolated regions of rotating deep convection, coupled with outward propagating vortex Rossby waves, develop during the strengthening phases. Although these isolated convective structures initially contribute to the increase in azimuthally averaged tangential wind through positive radial eddy vorticity fluxes, the continued outward expansion of convection eventually leads to a negative radial eddy vorticity flux, which halts the strengthening of the tangential wind above the boundary layer at the start of the weakening phase. The outward expansion of the azimuthally averaged convection also enhances the outflow above the boundary layer in the eyewall region, as the convection is no longer strong enough to ventilate the mass inflow from the boundary layer in a process similar to one described in a recent idealised study.","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"199 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135932499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Manning, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, A. V. van Loon, E. Bevacqua
{"title":"Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5","authors":"C. Manning, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, A. V. van Loon, E. Bevacqua","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Long-duration, sub-seasonal dry spells in combination with high\u0000temperature extremes during summer have led to extreme impacts on society\u0000and ecosystems in the past. Such events are expected to become more frequent\u0000due to increasing temperatures as a result of anthropogenic climate change.\u0000However, there is little information on how long-duration dry and hot spells\u0000are represented in global climate models (GCMs). In this study, we evaluate\u000033 CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison\u0000project 5) GCMs in their representation of long-duration dry spells and\u0000temperatures during dry spells. We define a dry spell as a consecutive\u0000number of days with a daily precipitation of less than 1 mm. CMIP5 models tend to\u0000underestimate the persistence of dry spells in northern Europe, while a large\u0000variability exists between model estimates in central and southern Europe,\u0000where models have contrasting biases. Throughout Europe, we also find a\u0000large spread between models in their representation of temperature extremes\u0000during dry spells. In central and southern Europe this spread in temperature\u0000extremes between models is related to the representation of dry spells,\u0000where models that produce longer dry spells also produce higher\u0000temperatures, and vice versa. Our results indicate that this variability in\u0000model estimates is due to model differences and not internal variability. At\u0000latitudes between 50–60∘ N, the differences in the representation of\u0000persistent dry spells are strongly related to the representation of\u0000persistent anticyclonic systems, such as atmospheric blocking and\u0000subtropical ridges. Furthermore, models simulating a higher frequency of\u0000anticyclonic systems than ERA5 also simulate temperatures in dry spells\u0000that are between 1.4, and 2.8 K warmer than models with a lower frequency\u0000in these areas. Overall, there is a large spread between CMIP5 models in\u0000their representation of long-duration dry and hot events that is due to\u0000errors in the representation of large-scale anticyclonic systems in certain\u0000parts of Europe. This information is important to consider when interpreting\u0000the plausibility of future projections from climate models and highlights\u0000the potential value that improvements in the representation of anticyclonic\u0000systems may have for the simulation of impactful hazards.\u0000","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131249802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Teubler, M. Riemer, Christopher Polster, C. Grams, S. Hauser, V. Wirth
{"title":"Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region","authors":"F. Teubler, M. Riemer, Christopher Polster, C. Grams, S. Hauser, V. Wirth","doi":"10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. Due to their role in weather extremes and atmospheric predictability, regimes that feature a blocking anticyclone are of particular interest. This study investigates the dynamics of these “blocked” regimes in the North Atlantic–European region from a year-round perspective. For a comprehensive diagnostic, wave activity concepts and a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) tendency framework are combined. The latter essentially quantifies the well-established PV perspective of mid-latitude dynamics. The four blocked regimes (namely Atlantic ridge, European blocking, Scandinavian blocking, and Greenland blocking) during the 1979–2021 period of ERA5 reanalysis are considered. Wave activity characteristics exhibit distinct differences between blocked regimes. After regime onset, Greenland blocking is associated with a suppression of wave activity flux, whereas Atlantic ridge and European blocking are associated with a northward deflection of the flux without a clear net change. During onset, the envelope of Rossby wave activity retracts upstream for Greenland blocking, whereas the envelope extends downstream for Atlantic ridge and European blocking. Scandinavian blocking exhibits intermediate wave activity characteristics. From the perspective of piecewise PV tendencies projected onto the respective regime pattern, the dynamics that govern regime onset exhibit a large degree of similarity:\u0000linear Rossby wave dynamics and nonlinear eddy PV fluxes dominate and are of approximately equal relative importance, whereas baroclinic coupling and divergent amplification make minor contributions. Most strikingly, all blocked regimes exhibit very similar (intra-regime) variability: a retrograde and an upstream pathway to regime onset. The retrograde pathway is dominated by nonlinear PV eddy fluxes, whereas the upstream pathway is dominated by linear Rossby wave dynamics. Importantly, there is a large degree of cancellation between the two pathways for some of the mechanisms before regime onset. The physical meaning of a regime-mean perspective before onset can thus be severely limited. Implications of our results for understanding predictability of blocked regimes are discussed. Further discussed are the limitations of projected tendencies in capturing the importance of moist-baroclinic growth, which tends to occur in regions where the amplitude of the regime pattern, and thus the projection onto it, is small. Finally, it is stressed that this study investigates the variability of the governing dynamics without prior empirical stratification of data by season or by type of regime transition.\u0000It is demonstrated, however, that our dynamics-centered approach does not merely reflect variability that is associated with these factors. The main modes of dynamical variability revealed herein and the large similarity of the blocked regimes in exhibiting this va","PeriodicalId":383272,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Dynamics","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126754364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}