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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Nepal’s Chure Region: A Geospatial Analysis 尼泊尔 Chure 地区山体滑坡易发性评估:地理空间分析
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.3390/land12122186
Purna Bahadur Thapa, S. Lamichhane, Khagendra Prasad Joshi, Aayoush Raj Regmi, Divya Bhattarai, Hari Adhikari
{"title":"Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Nepal’s Chure Region: A Geospatial Analysis","authors":"Purna Bahadur Thapa, S. Lamichhane, Khagendra Prasad Joshi, Aayoush Raj Regmi, Divya Bhattarai, Hari Adhikari","doi":"10.3390/land12122186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122186","url":null,"abstract":"The Chure Hills, already vulnerable due to their fragile nature, face increased landslide risk, prompting the need for reliable susceptibility assessment. This study uses Poisson regression modeling to assess landslide susceptibility in two highly susceptible districts of the Chure region. Variance inflation factor (VIF) tests were conducted to ensure robustness, indicating no multicollinearity among the variables. Subsequently, Poisson regression analysis identified eight significant variables, among which geology, lineament density, elevation, relief, slope, rainfall, solar radiance, and land cover types emerged as important factors associated with landslide count. The analysis revealed that higher lineament density and slope were associated with lower landslide counts, indicating potential stabilizing geological and topographical influences. The categorical variable, namely geology, revealed that middle Siwalik, upper Siwalik, and quaternary geological formations were associated with lower landslide counts than lower Siwalik. Land cover types, including areas under forest, shrubland, grassland, agricultural land, water bodies, and bare ground, had a substantial significant positive association with landslide count. The generated susceptibility map that exhibited a substantial portion (23.32% in Dang and 5.22% in Surkhet) of the study area fell within the very-high-susceptibility categories, indicating pronounced landslide susceptibility in the Dang and Surkhet districts of the Chure hills. This study offers valuable insights into landslide vulnerability in the Chure region, serving as a foundation for informed decision-making, disaster risk reduction strategies, and sustainable land-use and developmental policy planning.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"3 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138995467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deciphering the Relationship between Regional Production Factors, Governance, and the Economic Performance of Metropolitan Areas in China 解读区域生产要素、治理与中国大都市区经济绩效之间的关系
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.3390/land12122185
Jia Yan, Zhigang Li, Yi Chen, Juan Zhang, Sifeng Nian
{"title":"Deciphering the Relationship between Regional Production Factors, Governance, and the Economic Performance of Metropolitan Areas in China","authors":"Jia Yan, Zhigang Li, Yi Chen, Juan Zhang, Sifeng Nian","doi":"10.3390/land12122185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122185","url":null,"abstract":"The metropolitan area serves as a vital catalyst for advancing the new urbanization strategy and remains a focal point of current academic research in China. This paper endeavors to explore the developmental mechanisms of China’s metropolitan areas, centering on the circulation of regional production factors within these urban conglomerations. Additionally, it introduces the hypothesis of various spatial governance models for these metropolitan areas. Drawing upon theoretical research, the paper substantiates the hypothesis regarding the development mechanisms and spatial governance model of metropolitan areas through several case studies. Finally, we present the principal research findings concerning the development mechanisms and spatial governance models of China’s metropolitan areas, along with issues in need of further examination.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"68 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138965224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Ecological Compensation for Cultivated Land in Northeast China 中国东北地区耕地生态补偿的时空分析
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-17 DOI: 10.3390/land12122179
Lu Wang, Bonoua Faye, Quanfeng Li, Yunkai Li
{"title":"A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Ecological Compensation for Cultivated Land in Northeast China","authors":"Lu Wang, Bonoua Faye, Quanfeng Li, Yunkai Li","doi":"10.3390/land12122179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122179","url":null,"abstract":"Ecological compensation for cultivated land is a prominent means to coordinate the protection and utilization of cultivated land ecosystems. This study assessed the ecological compensation for cultivated land, considering both the ecological footprint and value of ecosystem services. We used the ecological footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land, combined with the value of its ecosystem services, with a focus on estimating its ecological compensation standard, and we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Northeast China. We found that the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land showed a fluctuating growth trend in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020, increasing by 288.83 × 105 ha and 131.37 × 105 ha, respectively. The spatial distribution of cultivated land’s ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity showed growth from the southwest to the northeast. The value of its ecosystem services presented an overall trend of growth over the past 20 years, increasing by CNY 13.64 billion, or an increase of 12.47%. In terms of spatial distribution, the trends of the ecological compensation for cultivated land showed obvious differences. This study mainly focused on black soil cultivated land, and its results are helpful for governments in different countries solving similar problems in terms of the ecological compensation for cultivated land. This study will provide a valuable reference to measure the compensation standard scientifically and to provide policy recommendations for sustainable cultivated land’s protection and utilization.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"7 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mapping Firescapes for Wild and Prescribed Fire Management: A Landscape Classification Approach 为野火和规定火源管理绘制火景图:景观分类方法
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-17 DOI: 10.3390/land12122180
Nicholas P. Gould, Lars Y. Pomara, Sandhya Nepal, Scott L. Goodrick, Danny C. Lee
{"title":"Mapping Firescapes for Wild and Prescribed Fire Management: A Landscape Classification Approach","authors":"Nicholas P. Gould, Lars Y. Pomara, Sandhya Nepal, Scott L. Goodrick, Danny C. Lee","doi":"10.3390/land12122180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122180","url":null,"abstract":"Risks associated with severe wildfire are growing in forest landscapes due to interactions among climate change, fuel accumulation from fire suppression, an expanding wildland–urban interface, and additional factors. People, infrastructure, ecosystem services, and forest health all face varying degrees of risk. The spatial distributions of the many social and ecological factors that influence wildfire, its impacts, and management responses are an important landscape-level context for managing risks and fostering resilient lands and communities. Decision-support tools that integrate these varied distributions can provide a holistic and readily interpreted characterization of landscapes, helping fire management decision making be appropriate, efficient, and effective. Firescapes—landscape types defined in relation to fire, its drivers, and its effects as a socioecological system—fill this role, providing a way to organize and interpret spatial variation along multiple relevant dimensions. We describe a quantitative approach for classifying and mapping firescapes for decision support, using the southeastern United States as a case study. We worked with regional partners to compile relevant large-scale datasets and identify 73 variables for analysis. We used factor analysis to reduce the data to eight factors with intuitive interpretations relevant to fire dynamics, fire history, forest characteristics, climate, conservation and ecosystem service values, social and ecological landscape properties, and social vulnerabilities. We then used cluster analysis on the factors to generate quantitative landscape classes, which we interpreted as nine distinctive firescape classes. The firescapes provide a broad-scale socioecological information context for wildfire risk management and planning. The analytical approach can accommodate different data types at a variety of scales, incorporate new monitoring data as they are available, and can be used under data-driven scenarios to assess possible consequences of future change. The resulting firescape maps can provide decision support to forest managers, planners, and other stakeholders, informing appropriate strategies to manage fire and associated risks, build community and forest resilience to fire, and improve conservation outcomes.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"32 35","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Suitability of Valleys of Cantabria Area for a UGGp Proposal 坎塔布里亚地区山谷是否适合 UGGp 建议
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-17 DOI: 10.3390/land12122177
Jaime Bonachea Pico, A. González-Díez, Javier Hernández-Blanco, J. Remondo, Victoria Rivas
{"title":"Suitability of Valleys of Cantabria Area for a UGGp Proposal","authors":"Jaime Bonachea Pico, A. González-Díez, Javier Hernández-Blanco, J. Remondo, Victoria Rivas","doi":"10.3390/land12122177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122177","url":null,"abstract":"UNESCO-designated geoparks, intended for conservation, seek to drive economic development via geological heritage education and tourism. Since 2018, within the framework of the European project Atlantic Geoparks (Interreg Atlantic area program), the Valleys of Cantabria project has been promoted to declare a UNESCO Global Geopark (UGGp) in the Cantabria region (northern Spain). The Valles de Cantabria proposal, aligning with UNESCO objectives, evaluates the region’s geopark potential, emphasizing sustainable development and societal education. Covering 600 km2 in eastern Cantabria, the territory involves 19 municipalities and has a population of 60,600. The geological context, ranging from the Triassic to the Quaternary periods, reflects the complex evolution of this territory, which has been influenced by tectonic forces, geomorphological processes, and sea-level changes. Detailed reviews and fieldwork performed by experts, including university researchers, have identified 66 sites of geological interest (SGI). The geosites, which have different geological–geomorphological significances, have been assessed according to their scientific value (including educational importance), potential of use (mainly geotouristic use), and vulnerability or risk of degradation. The geological heritage is directly related to the high biodiversity of the area. The challenges of this territory, such as depopulation and the low income of the inhabitants, can be improved with the declaration of a geopark, which would help to create new job opportunities related to geotourism and sustainable development. UNESCO recognition could catalyse scientific research, address socioeconomic challenges, and foster rural revitalization, strengthening the symbiotic relationship between geoconservation and local economic growth. Collaboration with other Atlantic geoparks has enabled the exchange of experiences that will hopefully deepen in the future. Consequently, the aim of this work is to explore the potential of this territory in terms of high-quality geological features and biological and cultural heritage, as well as to evaluate the socioeconomic context that makes the territory potentially suitable for promoting a UGGp.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"25 33","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138965888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consistency Analysis of Multi-Source Remote Sensing Land Cover Products in Arid Regions—A Case Study of Xinjiang 干旱地区多源遥感土地覆被产品一致性分析--新疆案例研究
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-17 DOI: 10.3390/land12122178
Shen Liu, Zhonglin Xu, Yuchuan Guo, Tingting Yu, Fujin Xu, Yao Wang
{"title":"Consistency Analysis of Multi-Source Remote Sensing Land Cover Products in Arid Regions—A Case Study of Xinjiang","authors":"Shen Liu, Zhonglin Xu, Yuchuan Guo, Tingting Yu, Fujin Xu, Yao Wang","doi":"10.3390/land12122178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122178","url":null,"abstract":"Arid regions are considered to be among the most ecologically fragile and highly sensitive to environmental change globally, and land use and land cover conditions in the region directly influence large-scale ecosystem processes. Currently, thanks to diverse remote sensing platforms, geographers have developed an array of land cover products. However, there are differences between these products due to variations in spatio-temporal resolutions. In this context, assessing the accuracy and consistency of different land cover products is crucial for rationalizing the selection of land cover products to study global or regional environmental changes. In this study, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) is taken as the study area, and the consistency and performance (type area deviation, spatial consistency, accuracy assessment, and other indexes) of the five land cover products (GlobeLand30, FROM_GLC30, CLCD, GLC_FCS30, and ESRI) were compared and analyzed. The results of the study show that (1) the GlobeLand30 product has the highest overall accuracy in the study area, with an overall accuracy of 84.06%, followed by ESA with 75.57%, while CLCD has the lowest overall accuracy of 70.05%. (2) The consistency between GlobeLand30 and CLCD (area correlation coefficient of 0.99) was higher than that among the other products. (3) Among the five products, the highest consistency was found for water bodies and permanent snow and ice, followed by bare land. In contrast, the consistency of these five products for grassland and forest was relatively low. (4) The full-consistency area accounts for 49.01% of the total study area. They were mainly distributed in areas with relatively homogeneous land cover types, such as the north and south of the Tianshan Mountains, which are dominated by bare land and cropland. In contrast, areas of inconsistency make up only 0.03% and are mostly found in heterogeneous areas, like the transitional zones with mixed land cover types in the Altai Mountains and Tianshan Mountains, or in areas with complex terrain. In terms of meeting practical user needs, GlobeLand30 offers the best comprehensive performance. GLC_FCS30 is more suitable for studies related to forests, while FROM_GLC30 and ESRI demonstrate greater advantages in identifying permanent ice and snow, whereas the performance of CLCD is generally average.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"23 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Associations between Land-Use Patterns and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the Beijing—Tianjin–Hebei Megacity Region 京津冀特大城市地区土地利用模式与心血管疾病死亡率之间的关系
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.3390/land12122176
Changcheng Kan, Qiwei Ma, Anqi Liu, Zhaoyu Yuan
{"title":"Associations between Land-Use Patterns and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the Beijing—Tianjin–Hebei Megacity Region","authors":"Changcheng Kan, Qiwei Ma, Anqi Liu, Zhaoyu Yuan","doi":"10.3390/land12122176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122176","url":null,"abstract":"Megacity regions where human activities are intensive are key areas for CVD prevention and control in China. Optimizing land-use patterns has been widely recognized as an important public health intervention. Ecological space, agricultural space, and construction space are three basic management objects in China’s new land-use management system. Given that most existing studies focused on a single type of land use, this study treats them as a whole and not only explores the impact of each type, but also systematically investigates the effects of the interactions between any two types of land use and the whole land-use pattern. Specifically, this study first constructs a hierarchical index system, then uses spatial error models (SEM) to explore the global associations between each index and age-standardized CVD mortality rates (ASMRs) and uses the multiple geographical weighted regression model (MGWR) to explore the spatial heterogeneity of factor effects. The possible association between land-use patterns and CVD mortality is then explored, and recommendations for policy formulation are provided. The analysis results show that the overall pattern of moderately decentralized and organically combined land use can control CVD mortality to a certain extent, but the specific influence mechanisms show significant differences according to different land-use types, relationships, and location conditions. First, in terms of single-type land-use distribution, the concentration of ecological space has positive health benefits, while a too high concentration of agricultural space has negative effects. Second, the combination of different types of land use has a significant association with CVD, in which the mixed layout of ecological and agricultural space helps to suppress CVD, while ecological and construction space need to be appropriately regularized and should not be too interspersed. Third, the same index may have different effects in different regions, suggesting that policy makers need to tailor their policies to local conditions.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"8 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138967250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“The Urban Poor and Vulnerable Are Hit Hardest by the Heat”: A Heat Equity Lens to Understand Community Perceptions of Climate Change, Urban Heat Islands, and Green Infrastructure "城市贫民和弱势群体受高温影响最严重":从热公平的角度理解社区对气候变化、城市热岛和绿色基础设施的看法
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.3390/land12122174
Mahbubur Meenar, Md. Shahinoor Rahman, Jason Russack, Sarah Bauer, K. Kapri
{"title":"“The Urban Poor and Vulnerable Are Hit Hardest by the Heat”: A Heat Equity Lens to Understand Community Perceptions of Climate Change, Urban Heat Islands, and Green Infrastructure","authors":"Mahbubur Meenar, Md. Shahinoor Rahman, Jason Russack, Sarah Bauer, K. Kapri","doi":"10.3390/land12122174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122174","url":null,"abstract":"As the global temperature and rapid urbanization continue to rise, urban heat islands (UHIs) also continue to increase across the world. Following the heat equity concept, UHIs disproportionately impact disadvantaged or overburdened communities. Green infrastructure (GI) has been at the forefront of UHI mitigation efforts, including nature-based solutions like parks, pervious open spaces, wooded areas, green roofs, rain gardens, and shade trees. In this paper, we use a heat equity lens to analyze community perceptions of the intersection of climate change, UHI, and GI in Camden, New Jersey—a post-industrial city with a history of environmental injustices. Based on a mixed-methods analysis of survey responses (n = 107), 11 years of relevant X (formerly Twitter) posts (n = 367), and geospatial data, we present community perceptions of and connections between climate change, UHI, and GI and discuss major themes that emerged from the data: perceived heat inequity in Camden triggers negative emotions; a public knowledge gap exists regarding climate change-UHI-GI connections; and perceived inequitable distribution of GI and certain GI planning and maintenance practices may negatively impact UHI mitigation strategies. We argue these themes are useful to urban planners and relevant professionals while planning for heat equity and mitigating UHI effects in disadvantaged urban communities like Camden.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"21 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138967396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bridges over the River Turia: Genesis of the Urban History of Valencia 图利亚河上的桥梁:巴伦西亚城市历史的起源
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.3390/land12122175
María-Montiel Durá-Aras, E. Gielen, J. Palencia-Jimenez, Josep Lluís Miralles-García
{"title":"Bridges over the River Turia: Genesis of the Urban History of Valencia","authors":"María-Montiel Durá-Aras, E. Gielen, J. Palencia-Jimenez, Josep Lluís Miralles-García","doi":"10.3390/land12122175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122175","url":null,"abstract":"The foundation of the city of Valencia was created by the Romans on an island formed by the River Turia, strategically located between Carthago Nova (Cartagena) and Tarraco (Tarragona), and is directly connected to the sea. This raises the question of how the elements of access to the city came about and how the river and its bridges might have affected its evolution. This article delves into the study of the origins of the city, with a time frame that extends into the 11th century, the time at which an event took place that confirms one of the major changes in the city’s urban morphology: when it stopped being an island. The intrinsic relationship that exists between bridges and main communication routes as fundamental elements to the access of an island is the driving force behind this article, which is based on research, until now undone, on the existence and construction of the first bridges in the city of Valencia and their influence on the city’s subsequent development. This paper will start by studying the founding and location of this city and will then analyze the communication routes existing at the time. It will also study the communication routes that were created later and how all of them were forced to cross a fluvial accident, the River Turia. For this purpose, the number of bridges built until the city ceased to be an island have been identified, and analyses of their typology, location and who was responsible for them has been carried out to study how they may have affected the normal flow and evolution of the riverbed and their possible influence on the city’s development.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"4 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138968097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wildfire Risk Assessment for Strategic Forest Management in the Southern United States: A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach 美国南部森林战略管理的野火风险评估:贝叶斯网络建模方法
IF 3.9 2区 环境科学与生态学
Land Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.3390/land12122172
Sandhya Nepal, Lars Y. Pomara, Nicholas P. Gould, Danny C. Lee
{"title":"Wildfire Risk Assessment for Strategic Forest Management in the Southern United States: A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach","authors":"Sandhya Nepal, Lars Y. Pomara, Nicholas P. Gould, Danny C. Lee","doi":"10.3390/land12122172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122172","url":null,"abstract":"Wildfire occurrences have increased and are projected to continue increasing globally. Strategic, evidence-based planning with diverse stakeholders, making use of diverse ecological and social data, is crucial for confronting and mitigating the associated risks. Prescribed fire, when planned and executed carefully, is a key management tool in this effort. Assessing where prescribed fire can be a particularly effective forest management tool can help prioritize efforts, reduce wildfire risk, and support fire-resilient lands and communities. We collaborated with expert stakeholders to develop a Bayesian network model that integrated a large variety of biophysical, socioecological, and socioeconomic spatial information for the Southeastern United States to quantify where risk is high and where prescribed fire would be efficient in mitigating risk. The model first estimated wildfire risk based on landscape-scale interactions among the likelihoods of fire occurrence and severity and the people and resources potentially exposed—accounting for socioeconomic vulnerabilities as well as key ecosystem services. The model then quantified the potential for risk reduction through prescribed fire, given the existing fuel load, climate, and other landscape conditions. The resulting expected risk estimates show high risk concentrated in the coastal plain and interior highland subregions of the Southern US, but there was considerable variation among risks to different ecosystem services and populations, including potential exposure to smoke emissions. The capacity to reduce risk through fuel reductions was spatially correlated with risk; where these diverged, the difference was largely explained by fuel load. We suggest that both risk and the capacity for risk reduction are important in identifying priorities for management interventions. The model serves as a decision support tool for stakeholders to coordinate large-landscape adaptive management initiatives in the Southern US. The model is flexible with regard to both empirical and expert-driven parameterizations and can be updated as new knowledge and data emerge. The resulting spatial information can help connect active management options to forest management goals and make management more efficient through targeted investments in priority landscapes.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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