{"title":"Implications of Negative Interest Rates on the Financial Systems","authors":"Jasurbek Ataniyazov Hamidovich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2898774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2898774","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, the state of the banking sector in many countries is in opposition with respect to the banking systems of developed countries. The principal difference is that the one-way desire to stimulate economic growth in Asian countries is associated with high rates of inflation and interest rates on loans, while in the developed countries, on the contrary, with deflationary processes in the economy close to zero values of the interest on loans. A series of economic and financial crises of the last few decades, and the slowdown of the world economy forced the monetary authorities of many countries to introduce new tools to stimulate economic growth. Among the latest innovations of individual central banks focus attracting the program of «quantitative easing» (QE) and negative interest rates. The last have been used recently, whereby the long-term effects of these instruments on the economy is not yet known. We emphasize that the tools used by central banks, monetary authorities in the banking sector are aimed not solely at banks as the regulatory environment, and to all economic entities that interact with the banks acting guides monetary policy. In this connection, the phenomenon of negative interest rates rapidly beyond the banking sector.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125906853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interest Rate Prominence in Consumer Decisionmaking","authors":"C. Binder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2897699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2897699","url":null,"abstract":"Variations in consumers' responsiveness to interest rates across households and over time may have important implications for monetary transmission. Survey questions from the Michigan Survey of Consumers provide an indication of the degree to which interest rates are a prominent consideration in consumers' decision to buy durables, cars, and housing, and in their perceptions of their financial situation. Interest rates are more prominent in housing than in car and durable decisions, and low interest rates are more prominent than high rates. Interest rate prominence increases with income, education, and homeownership, and has declined since the Great Recession. Interest rate prominence is associated with a stronger responsiveness of consumption attitudes to monetary policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122439834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Indraneel Chakraborty, Rong Hai, Hans A. Holter, S. Stepanchuk
{"title":"The Real Effects of Financial (Dis)Integration: A Multi-Country Equilibrium Analysis of Europe","authors":"Indraneel Chakraborty, Rong Hai, Hans A. Holter, S. Stepanchuk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2743909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2743909","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from 15 European Union economies, we quantify the real effects of supply-side frictions due to the financial disintegration of European countries since the 2008 financial crisis. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous countries and destination-specific financial frictions. Financial institutions allocate capital endogenously across countries, determining the cost of capital to firms and the wealth of nations. The cost of financial disintegration is reduced access to capital for firms which results in lower output. Financial disintegration leads to a 0.54% fall in output in Europe since the crisis. We also estimate benefits of further financial integration.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125580764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Problems and Prospects of the Shadow Cross-Border Capital Flows Estimation in the Russian Statistics","authors":"Natalyа Abrоskina, A. Abroskin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2911845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2911845","url":null,"abstract":"For the Russian statistics the adequate estimation of unrecorded cross-border capital transactions is considered not only as a problem of methodological or technical nature, but also as a key factor of improving the quality of macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and regulations of related processes. Currently in Russian practice for this purpose is used the methodology developed by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF) and applied to formation of special indicator “net capital outflow of private sector” based on the Balance of payments (BOP) data. \u0000The specific features of the CBRF approach in the construction of the relevant estimates are: \u0000- Accounting capital flows only for private sector which consists of banks and “other sectors” (the latter includes units of non-financial and non-bank financial corporations); \u0000- Using in calculations the total balancing items on asset-related and liability-related transactions of balance of payments financial account for banks and other sectors; \u0000- Using in calculations the special item “fictitious transactions” as a part of net acquisition of foreign financial assets by other sectors of resident economy. \u0000The values of net capital outflow for each group of units in accordance with applied methodology are determined as the difference between the net acquisition of financial assets and net incurrence of liabilities.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117120154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effective Macroprudential Policy: Cross-Sector Substitution from Price and Quantity Measures","authors":"J. Cizel, Jon Frost, A. Houben, Peter Wierts","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2771608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2771608","url":null,"abstract":"Macroprudential policy is increasingly being implemented worldwide. Key questions are its effectiveness in influencing bank credit and substitution effects beyond banking. Our results confirm the expected effects of macroprudential policies on bank credit, both for advanced economies and emerging market economies. But results also confirm substitution effects towards non-bank credit, especially in advanced economies, reducing the policies' effect on total credit. Quantity restrictions are particularly potent in constraining bank credit but also cause the strongest substitution effects. Policy implications indicate a need to extend macroprudential policy beyond banking, especially in advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125685016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy Under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment","authors":"C. Hommes, D. Massaro, Matthias Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2636234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2636234","url":null,"abstract":"Expectations play a crucial role in modern macroeconomic models. We consider a New Keynesian framework under rational expectations and under a behavioral model of expectation formation. We show how the economy behaves in the alternative scenarios with a focus on inflation volatility. Contrary to the rational model, the behavioral model predicts that inflation volatility can be lowered if the central bank reacts to the output gap in addition to inflation. We test the opposing theoretical predictions in a learning-to-forecast experiment. The results support the behavioral model and the claim that output stabilization can lead to less volatile inflation.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124201041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Excessive Risk-Taking and Banking Crisis","authors":"Taha Zaghdoudi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2811700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2811700","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and banks excessive risk-taking and banking crisis. We use a panel of data consisting of 22 Latin American countries, the OECD and South-East Asia, which experienced banking crises between 1990 and 2013. Our empirical results show that the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy via an increase in the money supply and the application of low interest rates over an extended period of time may induce an increase in banks risk-taking. However, a restrictive monetary policy with high interest rates increases the risk of banking crisis.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126186138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Currency Devaluation on The Banking Sector of Azerbaijan","authors":"U. Aliyeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3698650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3698650","url":null,"abstract":"This master thesis aims to examine an empirical investigation of the impact of Azerbaijan national currency devaluation on the banking sector of Azerbaijan. We will identify how currency devaluation affects the performance of the banks in Azerbaijan. In recent decades, several developing countries have confronted volatility in national currency requiring major reforms in the financial sector and economy. Devaluation is considered a tool of central banks to regulate the national currency. The monetary authorities apply for devaluation in terms of enhancing the trade balance of countries. Macroeconomic equilibrium, price stability, financial and banking stability, sustainable economic growth, or sustained economic growth reflect the uppermost targets of monetary policy.<br><br>On the other hand, this study will determine the profitability of banks in Azerbaijan and analyze the devaluation impact for 2013-2018 years. However, the price shifts of oil-gas resources in 2014 sketched the financial institutions severely in Azerbaijan. In this thesis, the modification of the dependent and independent variables of the regression model will be tested by using the Panel Data Analysis Method. <br><br>Moreover, I decided to research this topic for my thesis, as my further plans are to continue my PhD degree and improve my career in this area. In this thesis, I will introduce a brief overview of the banking sector in Azerbaijan, and the effects of two devaluations by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic in 2015. This thesis will check the effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Azerbaijan banking sphere by running balanced panel data for the period 2013-2018 years. The empirical findings of this study suggest that the changes in a foreign exchange rate have a statistically significant and adverse impact on the profitability of Azerbaijan banks.","PeriodicalId":376562,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Impacts (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115151461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}