Problems and Prospects of the Shadow Cross-Border Capital Flows Estimation in the Russian Statistics

Abstract

For the Russian statistics the adequate estimation of unrecorded cross-border capital transactions is considered not only as a problem of methodological or technical nature, but also as a key factor of improving the quality of macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and regulations of related processes. Currently in Russian practice for this purpose is used the methodology developed by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF) and applied to formation of special indicator “net capital outflow of private sector” based on the Balance of payments (BOP) data. The specific features of the CBRF approach in the construction of the relevant estimates are: - Accounting capital flows only for private sector which consists of banks and “other sectors” (the latter includes units of non-financial and non-bank financial corporations); - Using in calculations the total balancing items on asset-related and liability-related transactions of balance of payments financial account for banks and other sectors; - Using in calculations the special item “fictitious transactions” as a part of net acquisition of foreign financial assets by other sectors of resident economy. The values of net capital outflow for each group of units in accordance with applied methodology are determined as the difference between the net acquisition of financial assets and net incurrence of liabilities.