ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives最新文献

{"title":"Value at looking back:Towards an empirical validation of the role of reflexivity in econo-historic backtesting:Economic market prediction corrections correlate with future market performance","authors":"Julia M. Puaschunder","doi":"10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.014","url":null,"abstract":"The following article innovatively paints a novel picture of the mass psychological underpinnings of business cycles based on information flows in order to recommend how certain communication strategies could counterweight and alleviate information failing market performance expectations that could potentially build disastrous financial market mass movements of booms and busts. An introduction to the history of economic cycles will lead to George Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity in order to draw inferences for the analysis of the role of information in creating economic booms and busts in the age of globalization. Empirically, based on a central European central bank’s GNP projections and backtesting corrections, a pattern of central bank corrections communication and economic market performance will be unraveled for the first time to outline that central bank market prediction corrections are positively correlated with near future market performances and negatively correlated with distant future market performances. The collective reality of prices and the irrationality of the crowds perturbating markets will be discussed. Business cycles are argued to obey some kind of natural complexity, as for being influenced by econo-historic communication trends. Recommendations how to create more stable economic systems by avoiding emergent risks in communicating market prospects more cautiously will be given in the discussion followed by a prospective future research outlook and conclusion.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns: The Bombay Stock Exchange","authors":"F. Beer, F. Lin","doi":"10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.003","url":null,"abstract":"Problem/Relevance: This study is motivated by psychological evidence of a strong connection between sporting event outcomes and mood. To evaluate this connection, we analyze the Indian stock market reaction to sudden changes in investors’ mood captured by India’s cricket results. By focusing on a rarely studied mood variable and a very infrequently studied stock exchange, this study adds to our understanding of the association between sporting event outcomes and mood. Research Objective/Questions: In this study, we investigate the impact of cricket wins and losses on the Bombay Stock Exchange. We hypothesize that cricket wins or losses will drive investors’ mood substantially and unambiguously so that the game outcomes will be powerful enough to impact asset prices. We also evaluate the hypothesis that losses are psychologically more powerful than wins. Methodology: We analyze the daily data from the Bombay Stock Exchange using the methodology of Edmonds et al. (2007). This methodology has the advantages of capturing the Bombay Stock Exchange stock returns timevarying volatility through a GARCH model. Major Fundings: Our findings show that cricket wins and losses do not impact the Bombay Stock Exchange. On the exchange, stock prices reflect relevant information. Our results are thus consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Implication(s): Our results imply that on the Bombay Stock Exchange, cricket wins and losses cannot be reliably used by investors and portfolio managers to achieve returns in excess of the average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Albania: An Estimation Based on the Co-Integration Approach","authors":"Natasha Ahmetaj, Merita Bejtja","doi":"10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.005","url":null,"abstract":"Problem/Relevance: Investigation of exchange rate behaviour has been an important topic in international monetary economics because of the impact of exchange rates on economies. One strand of the literature has focused on explaining the observed movement of the nominal or real exchange rate in terms of macroeconomic variables. Another strand of the literature has evaluated the behaviour of the real exchange rates in relation to the equilibrium exchange rate, which is the real exchange rate that is consistent with macroeconomic balances. Albania implements a free floating exchange rate regime; therefore, evaluating whether the actual real exchange rate is too strong or too weak compared with the real equilibrium exchanges rate has great relevance for the Albanian economy. Research Objective/Questions: Generally, the real exchange rate is defined as the nominal exchange rate adjusted for the relative price differential between domestic and foreign goods and services. So, an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate or higher inflation at home relative to other countries may lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. Such appreciation weakens the competitiveness of a country, widens the current account deficit and increases vulnerability to financial crises. The opposite holds true when the real exchange rate depreciates. The aim of this paper is, first, to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Albanian currency against the euro and, second, to assess the total exchange rate misalignment during the period of 2001Q1-2017Q1. Thus, the equilibrium real exchange rate is used as a benchmark for evaluating the misalignment of the actual real exchange rate. Methodology: This paper explores the determinants of the real exchange rate for Albania, during the period of 2001Q1-2017Q1, based on the stock-flow approach, the so called Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), which effectively employs reduced-form modelling of the exchange rate based on standard co-integration techniques. The stock of net foreign assets and productivity changes has been considered fundamental for the real exchange rate. We have used the Johansen co integration technique to test the existence of long-run relationships between our main variables and to evaluate the path of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on vector error correction model (VECM) results. Then the analysis is completed by calculating the degree of misalignment as the difference between the actual real exchange rate and the equilibrium real exchange rate. Major Findings: Based on the Johansen co-integration approach, we find one long-run relationship between the real exchange rate of the Albanian lek against the euro, relative productivity and net foreign assets during the period of 2001Q1 to 2017Q1. The model implies that the real exchange rate is affected, as we expected, by relative productivity and net foreign assets, confirming that an increase in both variables leads to an app","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Saving and Investment Pattern: Assessment and Prospects","authors":"Deepika Dhawan, S. K. Mehta","doi":"10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.008","url":null,"abstract":"Relevance: This study is conducted to look into the investor rationality by examining the pattern of saving and investment in the city of Jammu situated in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Research Objective: The objective of this study is to see the association of saving and income; reasons for saving; and preferences of investors for different investment instruments through administering the structured questionnaire. Methodology: Respondents are conveniently selected based on judgment. One -Way ANOVA, ANCOVA, and MANOVA are used to identify and understand the patterns of saving and investment and underlying triggers for the same. Findings: A relationship between saving and income is found, after controlling for the effects of variables, namely, age, gender, and occupation. Likewise, the impact of gender on financial literacy and awareness is found. This study also finds that people prefer safe and liquid investments with tax benefits, higher returns, and fewer lock-in-periods. Implications: The outcome will help financial consultants and investment managers to know more about the psyche and the level of financial literacy of people, and thus to help them in their objective of garnering funds and invest at a significant level and, finally helping in the capital formation.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internal Control Weakness and Managerial Myopia: Evidence from SOX Section 404 Disclosures","authors":"A. Ji","doi":"10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/JOFRP.2019.8.1.004","url":null,"abstract":"Problem/ Relevance: Managerial myopia is an important issue of interests to academics, practitioners, and regulators as managers have been condemned for their obsession with short-term earnings and myopic investment decisions that sacrifice firms’ long term value for shareholders. This article contributes by examining whether the quality of firms’ internal controls over financial reporting (ICFR) is associated with managerial myopia. Research Objective/ Questions: The purpose of this study is to examine whether managers in firms reporting material internal control weaknesses (ICW) under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002 engage in myopic behaviors more than those in firms without reporting ICW. Methodology: The study uses the logit regression model to investigate a sample obtained from Compustat for the period of 2005-2013. Major Findings: The study finds a positive association between internal control weaknesses reported by auditors under Section 404 of the SOX and managerial short-termism which is measured by the probability of cutting R&D expenses in the current year from the previous year. Implications: Whereas prior studies mostly examine the impact of internal controls on accounting quality, this study demonstrates the implication of internal controls beyond financial reporting quality by showing an association between internal control quality and managerial myopia. Future research may further investigate the association between firms’ financial reporting quality and managerial investment decisions.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Positive Side of Feminist Theory in Entrepreneurial Finance: Feminist Themes and Tropes in Crowdfunding for Social Change","authors":"Theresia Harrer","doi":"10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.017","url":null,"abstract":"Following literature that already reframes entrepreneurship as a social change activity, we consider the societal change potential of entrepreneurial narratives in crowdfunding pitches of predominantly female-run ventures. We understand the community-driven phenomenon crowdfunding therefore as a vehicle to transcend and change the predominantly masculine entrepreneurial discourse of innovation and business success. Following an idiographic methodology, we analyse the discourse in crowdfunding video-representations of female-run ventures and explore structure, linguistic usage, visual artefacts and the implied intentions towards social change from a feminist perspective. From the sampling set of 42 crowdfunding campaigns, we use the resulting discursive elements and tropes to identify feminist themes that drive the success of these campaigns through connecting with immanent societal values. With this we contribute to the social change perspective in entrepreneurship research by addressing epistemological issues within prevailing paradigms.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70083963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}