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Did exposure to COVID-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election? COVID-19是否影响了2020年总统大选的投票选择?
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211041505
Marco Mendoza Aviña, Semra Sevi
{"title":"Did exposure to COVID-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election?","authors":"Marco Mendoza Aviña, Semra Sevi","doi":"10.1177/20531680211041505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211041505","url":null,"abstract":"An important body of literature shows that citizens evaluate elected officials based on their past performance. In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, the conventional wisdom in both media and academic discourse was that Donald Trump would have been a two-term president absent an unprecedented, global force majeure. In this research note, we address a simple question: did exposure to COVID-19 impact vote choice in the 2020 presidential election? Using data from the Cooperative Election Study, we find that Trump’s vote share decreased because of COVID-19. However, there is no evidence suggesting that Joe Biden loses the election when no voter reports exposure to coronavirus cases and deaths. These negligible effects are found at both the national and state levels, and are robust to an exhaustive set of confounders across model specifications.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46670391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Chinese views on nuclear weapons: Evidence from an online survey 中国对核武器的看法：来自网络调查的证据
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211032840
Naomi Egel, R. Hines
{"title":"Chinese views on nuclear weapons: Evidence from an online survey","authors":"Naomi Egel, R. Hines","doi":"10.1177/20531680211032840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211032840","url":null,"abstract":"What are Chinese public attitudes regarding nuclear weapons? Although scholars have studied Chinese elites’ views on nuclear weapons, surprisingly little is known about the views of China’s public. To understand Chinese public views on nuclear weapons, we conduct an online survey (N = 1066) of Chinese respondents. This is, to our knowledge, the first survey of Chinese public attitudes towards nuclear weapons. We find that although Chinese citizens view the possession of nuclear weapons as important for their country’s security, they strongly oppose the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances. We also provide respondents an opportunity to describe their views on nuclear weapons in their own words. Using computer-assisted text analysis, we assess patterns in these open-ended responses and compare across age groups. We find that younger respondents emphasize non-material factors such as having a greater voice internationally, whereas older respondents emphasize self-defense. Overall, this analysis sheds light on the public attitudes that may shape China’s evolving approach to nuclear weapons.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/20531680211032840","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47536871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Photo identification laws and perceptions of electoral fraud 照片识别法和对选举舞弊的看法
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211030435
Kyle Endres, Costas Panagopoulos
{"title":"Photo identification laws and perceptions of electoral fraud","authors":"Kyle Endres, Costas Panagopoulos","doi":"10.1177/20531680211030435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211030435","url":null,"abstract":"Photo identification (ID) laws are often passed on the premise that they will prevent voter fraud and/or reduce perceptions of electoral fraud. The impact of ID laws on perceptions of electoral fraud remains unsettled and is complicated by widespread confusion about current voting requirements. In the 2017 Virginia election, we fielded an experiment, with an advocacy organization, evaluating the effects of the organization’s outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards. After the election, we surveyed subjects about electoral integrity and their knowledge about election laws. We find that providing registrants with information on the state’s photo ID requirements is associated with a reduction in perceptions of fraud and increased knowledge about voting requirements.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43812958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Age is measured with systematic measurement error in developing country surveys: A diagnosis and analysis of consequences 在发展中国家的调查中，年龄是用系统测量误差来衡量的：后果的诊断和分析
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211044068
Steven C. Rosenzweig
{"title":"Age is measured with systematic measurement error in developing country surveys: A diagnosis and analysis of consequences","authors":"Steven C. Rosenzweig","doi":"10.1177/20531680211044068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211044068","url":null,"abstract":"Research in political science and other social sciences often relies on survey data to study a range of questions about politics in the developing world. This study identifies systematic measurement error in some of the most frequently used datasets with respect to one commonly employed variable: respondent’s age. It shows evidence of substantial measurement error that is correlated with observable characteristics, and discusses and illustrates the implications for empirical analysis with an example from a recently published study. In doing so, it demonstrates tools for identifying and diagnosing systematic measurement error in survey data, as well as for investigating the robustness of one’s findings when the problem arises.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46754282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Territorial wars and absolute outcomes 领土战争和绝对结果
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211043316
B. Crisher
{"title":"Territorial wars and absolute outcomes","authors":"B. Crisher","doi":"10.1177/20531680211043316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211043316","url":null,"abstract":"Why do some wars end with an absolute outcome, with state death or regime change? I argue that we are more likely to see absolute outcomes when we have territorial disputes with the potential for credible commitment problems and asymmetric disputants. In the absence of credible commitment problems, disputes are less likely to recur, and states are unlikely to seek to absorb the opponent state or remove its government. Among more symmetric disputants, states cannot impose an absolute outcome, and we are more likely to see recurrent disputes in the face of credible commitment problems. Only in very asymmetric dyads are we likely to have both the required willingness and opportunity to impose absolute outcomes to attempt to solve a credible commitment problem over territorial conflict.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42498514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How policy influence varies with race and gender in the US courts of appeals 美国上诉法院的政策影响如何因种族和性别而异
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211029432
R. Hinkle
{"title":"How policy influence varies with race and gender in the US courts of appeals","authors":"R. Hinkle","doi":"10.1177/20531680211029432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211029432","url":null,"abstract":"Even when women and people of color achieve positions of political power, institutional norms may combine with social constructions of difference to create a system in which power is distributed disproportionately. Such a pattern is evident in the US courts of appeals. Each case is resolved by a panel of three judges who also decide whether the opinion should be binding precedent (i.e., published) or not. I theorized that the variety of views and extended deliberation often attributed to diversity in a small-group environment depressed the rate of publication if judges were willing to compromise on the outcome but less willing to publish an opinion after such compromise. Using a massive original dataset of virtually all dispositive circuit opinions from 2002 to 2012, I found that homogeneous panels (98% of which are composed of white men) shaped policy more frequently than diverse panels.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/20531680211029432","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46320129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Attitudes about containment measures during the 2020/2021 coronavirus pandemic: self-interest, or broader political orientations? 2020/2021冠状病毒大流行期间对遏制措施的态度:自利还是更广泛的政治取向?
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211035319
C. Diehl, Felix Wolter
{"title":"Attitudes about containment measures during the 2020/2021 coronavirus pandemic: self-interest, or broader political orientations?","authors":"C. Diehl, Felix Wolter","doi":"10.1177/20531680211035319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211035319","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze opposition towards Covid-19 containment measures by assessing the role of self-interest, sociotropic threat, political predispositions, and infection rates. We base our analyses on two waves of survey data from Germany (N = 3258/3201). Our measure of self-interest includes objective indicators for and subjective perceptions of individual threat from containment measures in the economic sphere and in the family and health domains. We also analyze whether the role of self-interest changes as the pandemic proceeds in its course. Our results show that self-interest plays a limited role in explaining attitudes about containment measures. More important are broader political predispositions such as trust in institutions, including the government. Attitudes are unrelated to local rates of infection or death. This pattern has remained stable over the course of the pandemic. We discuss the relevance of these findings with respect to the general enforceability of public policies that serve collective goals, such as efforts to limit climate change. Parts of the population may be reluctant to comply with these public policies even if the associated costs to the individual are small. This is less because of people’s personal circumstances, and more because of their opposition to government interventions as such.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47309865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Self-coding: A method to assess semantic validity and bias when coding open-ended responses 自编码：一种在编码开放式回答时评估语义有效性和偏见的方法
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211031752
Rebecca A. Glazier, Amber E. Boydstun, Jessica T. Feezell
{"title":"Self-coding: A method to assess semantic validity and bias when coding open-ended responses","authors":"Rebecca A. Glazier, Amber E. Boydstun, Jessica T. Feezell","doi":"10.1177/20531680211031752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211031752","url":null,"abstract":"Open-ended survey questions can provide researchers with nuanced and rich data, but content analysis is subject to misinterpretation and can introduce bias into subsequent analysis. We present a simple method to improve the semantic validity of a codebook and test for bias: a “self-coding” method where respondents first provide open-ended responses and then self-code those responses into categories. We demonstrated this method by comparing respondents’ self-coding to researcher-based coding using an established codebook. Our analysis showed significant disagreement between the codebook’s assigned categorizations of responses and respondents’ self-codes. Moreover, this technique uncovered instances where researcher-based coding disproportionately misrepresented the views of certain demographic groups. We propose using the self-coding method to iteratively improve codebooks, identify bad-faith respondents, and, perhaps, to replace researcher-based content analysis.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/20531680211031752","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42346907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Inexperienced or anti-establishment? Voter preferences for outsider congressional candidates 缺乏经验还是反对建制?选民对非国会候选人的偏好
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211034958
Eric R. Hansen, Sarah A. Treul
{"title":"Inexperienced or anti-establishment? Voter preferences for outsider congressional candidates","authors":"Eric R. Hansen, Sarah A. Treul","doi":"10.1177/20531680211034958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211034958","url":null,"abstract":"Do US voters prefer inexperienced candidates? Candidates who have never held elected office before have had greater success in recent presidential and congressional elections. However, it could be that voters prefer the type of anti-establishment rhetoric that such candidates use more than the lack of experience itself. We conduct a 2x2 factorial experiment that manipulates a fictitious congressional candidate’s experience and rhetoric toward the political system. Results from a nationally representative Qualtrics sample and two follow-up studies from Mechanical Turk show that respondents evaluate the candidate more positively when he uses anti-establishment rhetoric instead of pro-establishment rhetoric. Though the findings are mixed, we find weak and inconsistent evidence that respondent prefer inexperienced candidates to experienced ones. The results suggest that outsider candidates receive an electoral boost by using anti-establishment messaging, but that candidates’ political résumés matter less to potential voters.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/20531680211034958","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45012785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Vote-by-mail policy and the 2020 presidential election 邮寄投票政策与2020年总统大选
IF 2.7 3区 社会学
Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-04-13 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221089197
Eric McGhee, J. Paluch, Mindy Romero
{"title":"Vote-by-mail policy and the 2020 presidential election","authors":"Eric McGhee, J. Paluch, Mindy Romero","doi":"10.1177/20531680221089197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221089197","url":null,"abstract":"Mail voting became unusually controversial in the 2020 presidential election. Many observers, including former President Trump, believed that more accessible vote by mail would encourage higher turnout at the expense of Republicans. While the literature has tested some of these claims, it has not offered a more comprehensive causal assessment of vote-by-mail policy, nor has any study looked at these questions in the context of the extraordinary 2020 election. We examine the effect of mail ballot access policies both before and during the 2020 pandemic election with county-level data and a variety of methodological approaches. Our results suggest that making it easier to vote by mail—especially mailing every voter a ballot—generally does increase turnout, both before and during the 2020 election. By contrast, the same policies do not have robust partisan effects, and in many models, they tilt the results in a more Republican direction. While some of our findings are sensitive to model specification, the positive turnout effect of mailing every voter a ballot is robust to many alternative approaches. The confirmation of the existing understanding of universally mailed ballots suggests the basic dynamics of the reform are immune to a wide range of disruptive forces.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44570234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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