COVID-19是否影响了2020年总统大选的投票选择?

IF 2 3区社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Research and Politics Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.1177/20531680211041505

Marco Mendoza Aviña, Semra Sevi

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引用次数: 6

摘要

一项重要的文献表明，公民是根据当选官员过去的表现来评价他们的。在2020年总统大选之后，媒体和学术话语中的传统观点都认为，如果没有前所未有的全球不可抗力，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)本可以连任两届总统。在这份研究报告中，我们解决了一个简单的问题:在2020年总统大选中，COVID-19是否会影响投票选择?利用合作选举研究的数据，我们发现特朗普的选票份额因为COVID-19而下降。然而，没有证据表明，在没有选民报告接触冠状病毒病例和死亡的情况下，乔·拜登会输掉选举。这些可以忽略不计的影响在国家和州的层面上都可以发现，并且对于模型规范中的一系列彻底的混杂因素是稳健的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Did exposure to COVID-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election?

An important body of literature shows that citizens evaluate elected officials based on their past performance. In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, the conventional wisdom in both media and academic discourse was that Donald Trump would have been a two-term president absent an unprecedented, global force majeure. In this research note, we address a simple question: did exposure to COVID-19 impact vote choice in the 2020 presidential election? Using data from the Cooperative Election Study, we find that Trump’s vote share decreased because of COVID-19. However, there is no evidence suggesting that Joe Biden loses the election when no voter reports exposure to coronavirus cases and deaths. These negligible effects are found at both the national and state levels, and are robust to an exhaustive set of confounders across model specifications.

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来源期刊

Research and Politics Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

3.70%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Research & Politics aims to advance systematic peer-reviewed research in political science and related fields through the open access publication of the very best cutting-edge research and policy analysis. The journal provides a venue for scholars to communicate rapidly and succinctly important new insights to the broadest possible audience while maintaining the highest standards of quality control.