{"title":"Estimation of Aggregate Consumption Function for Nepal: ARDL Bound Testing Approach","authors":"Arbind Chaudhary","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v29i2.52513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i2.52513","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between aggregate consumption and its determinants is one of the oldest statistical regularities of macroeconomics. It is important for macroeconomists, policy makers and for others as well. This study aims to estimate aggregate consumption function for Nepal employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the period of 1975 to 2015 using real income, real exchange rate, real interest rate and inflation rate as determinants. ARDL based co-integration analysis finds the existence of long run association among the variables. Furthermore, elasticity coefficient of real income is found significantly positive but the coefficients of other variables are negative. There exists inverse relationship between real depreciation of domestic currency and real consumption in the long run, but short run shows positive relation between them. The long run as well as short run dynamics of the model are significantly stable. Hence, income is a robust determinant of aggregate consumption. Real interest rate seems to generate substitution effects on consumption, and inflation rate evokes real balance effect on the aggregate consumption of Nepal further.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121588188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Neelam Timsina, Rajan Krishna Panta, Madhav Dangal, Mahesh Chaulagain
{"title":"Optimal Inflation Rate for Nepal","authors":"Neelam Timsina, Rajan Krishna Panta, Madhav Dangal, Mahesh Chaulagain","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52519","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the optimal inflation rate in Nepal based on the data of the period 1978–2016. The novelty of the analysis is that it probes possible nonlinearity of the hypothesized impact of inflation on economic growth using alternative specifications. The results suggest that there exists a threshold effect of inflation. The Ordinary Least Squares method estimates the turning point of inflation to be 6.25 percent while that of the Hansen (2000) method shows the threshold level to be 6.40 percent. The maximum impact on growth associated with the turning point, and at the mean levels of other explanatory variables is quite high at 4.59 percent. The results suggest that Nepal should adopt an inflation target range around the computed optimal inflation rate to lower the inflation expectation and enhance economic growth.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124373105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting NEPSE Index: An ARIMA and GARCH Approach","authors":"Hom Nath Gaire","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52530","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, an attempt has been made to demonstrate the usefulness of univariate time series analysis as both an analytical and forecasting tool for Nepali stock Market. The data set covers the daily closing value of NEPSE index for two and half years starting from the middle of 2012 to end 2015. The forecasting analysis indicates the usefulness of the developed model in explaining the variations, trend and fluctuations in the values of the price index of Nepali stock exchange. Explanation of the fit of the model is described using the Correlogram, Unit Root tests and ARCH tests, which finally confirm that the ARIMA and EGARCH are good in forecasting and predicting daily stock index of Nepal. Furthermore, it is inferred that the daily stock price index contains an autoregressive, seasonal and moving average components; hence, one can predict stock returns through the identified models.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116319776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Relationship between Financial Literacy and Behavior of Small Borrowers","authors":"R. Chaulagain","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52529","url":null,"abstract":"Financial literacy is an emerging and common concept both of education and finance. In general, the concept is important for every ones who has to manage the money; the concept plays vital role for low income people and small borrowers in particular. The small borrowers are those who borrow a limited amount of money from the licensed financial institutions. The borrowers are small on the basis of their credit limits determined by Nepal Rastra Bank. In this study, financial literacy, as one of the significant factors to determine the financial behavior of small borrowers, was measured to establish the relationship to each other. In this paper, the level of financial literacy of small borrowers was compared with their financial attitude and behavior, for which data were collected from survey of small borrowers of two cooperatives licensed by Nepal Rastra Bank. Chi-square test was applied to test the hypothesis that showed the relationship between these selected variables. The analysis showed that the relationship of financial literacy of small borrowers was significant with their financial attitude and behavior. Hence, we argue that that there is a need of a systematic enhancement of financial literacy of the small borrowers to change their attitude and thereby the financial behavior.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126605849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pitambar Bhandari, Madhav Dangal, T. Koirala, Sajana Silpakar
{"title":"Elasticity and Buoyancy of Taxation in Nepal: A Revisit of the Empirical Evidence","authors":"Pitambar Bhandari, Madhav Dangal, T. Koirala, Sajana Silpakar","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i1.52528","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) to estimate the elasticity and buoyancy coefficients of various revenue heads. We find that long-run buoyancy coefficients are greater than unity for all revenue heads except for custom duty whereas elasticity coefficients except for VAT are smaller than unity. Short-run buoyancy and elasticity coefficients for all revenue heads are found smaller than unity. We find OLS estimates of these coefficients to be spurious for the sample 1975-2016. These coefficients will be biased if data generating process (DGP) excludes tax exemption. All components of revenue besides income tax and VAT are found to be neutral to inflation. Empirical evidence suggests that custom reform should get top priority in the reform of revenue administration.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125634242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competition in Nepalese Commercial Banks","authors":"B. Neupane","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52537","url":null,"abstract":"This study has made an attempt to assess the degree of competition (or market structure) in Nepalese commercial banking. For the purpose, both of structural (n-bank concentration ratio and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) and non-structural measures (Panzar-Rosse H-statistics) have been used. Data of ten years have been abstracted from various sources for the analysis purpose. Study shows that the market structure of Nepalese commercial banks is characterized by the monopolistic competition. Further, it is observed that the banks other than government owned and joint-venture banks have been facing highest degree of competition where as joint-venture commercial banks face lowest degree of competition. Finally, the study suggested that the degree of competition among government owned, joint-venture and other Nepalese commercial banks slightly vary but overall market structure of all set of banks have the feature of monopolistic competition.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"56 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131776404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Inclusion in Nepal: Policy Review and Prescriptions","authors":"Bhubanesh Pant","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52531","url":null,"abstract":"With financial inclusion playing a vital role in reducing poverty and income disparity, it is emerging as a top priority for policymakers and regulators. A large number of countries have introduced comprehensive measures to improve access to and usage of tailored financial services. Greater financial inclusion is achieved when all economic activities and segments of the society have access to financial services with ease and at minimum cost. In the case of Nepal, though the need for financial inclusion by encompassing more and more of the excluded population by the formal financial system has been regularly emphasized in the country’s policy framework, a large section of population still remains outside the formal financial system. This paper, after assessing some relevant data on financial inclusion, reviews the policy measures implemented for enhancing it. The majority of the measures could not be executed to the degree desired due to problems of low financial literacy, paucity of infrastructural facilities as well as inadequate technology-based facilities, among others. Against this perspective, this study seeks to provide some prescriptions for enhancing financial inclusion in the country. These include, among others, promotion of financial literacy programs, launching of digital financial services, formulation of National Financial Inclusion Strategy, implementation of a Financial Inclusion Roadmap and according special role to microfinance institutions.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116185490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decentralization of Corruption and Local Public Service Delivery in Nepal","authors":"K. Panta","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52533","url":null,"abstract":"Lack of transparency, accountability, and existence of elite capture, ambiguity etc. will lead to misallocation and misappropriation of available resources. These phenomena contribute directly or indirectly to corruption resulting to poor efficiency and effectiveness of service delivery. These cases exist at the local level as well during the practice of decentralized service provision, leading to degrade the quality of and people’s trust on local public services. As represented by petty corruption at local level it seems to be decentralization of corruption as well in the same direction of decentralization of authorities and funds from centre to local governments. This paper tries to examine the effect of these factors on the local public service delivery in developing countries like Nepal. The study finds the existence of elite capture and corruption leading to the dissatisfaction of local people due to inferior quality of local public goods and services. Using survey data, mixed method of analysis and descriptive tools, the study examines how these maladies are affecting the local service provision through the impact on the corruption equation by the increased monopoly power of local officials along with discretion in decision making and reduced accountability. It observes the various practice of corruption existing in the local bodies and people’s perception on the corruption and local public services in the sample villages. The paper concludes that- unless and until the proper policies and actions to tackle these maladies are adopted, no one can expect for the effective and efficient decentralized service provision in order to improve the quality of life of general people.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131159571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock Market Efficiency in Nepal: A Variance Ratio Test","authors":"Jeetendra Dangol","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52536","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines random-walk behaviour and weak-form market efficiency on daily and weekly market returns of All Share Price Index and nine sectoral indices in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) using Lo and MacKinlay (1988) variance-ratio tests and corrected data as suggested by Miller et al. (1994). The study finds that the random-walk hypothesis is strongly rejected for weekly indices of the observed and corrected returns. It shows that market participants have opportunities to predict future price and earn abnormal returns from the Nepalese stock market. Whereas, overall and development banking sectors support the random-walk hypothesis in daily observed and corrected returns. It indicates that technical analysis may not be fruitful to earn excess returns in overall and development banking sectors.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132894755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of Bank Lending in Nepal","authors":"Neelam Timsina","doi":"10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v28i2.52532","url":null,"abstract":"Commercial banks constitute a major chunk of total assets in the banking system in Nepal and extension of credit is one of the major functions of banking institutions. If banks are not efficient in their lending behavior, it may not contribute to economic growth. On the other hand, their inefficient and imprudent banking practices may lead to riskier financial instability. The main objective of the study is to test and confirm the effectiveness of the determinants of commercial bank lending behavior in Nepal by using time series Ordinary Least Square regression approach for empirical analysis. The model involves Nepalese commercial banks' private sector credit (pvct) as dependent variable and other variables such as their volume of deposits (dep), interest rate (Ir), stipulated cash reserve requirements ratio (crr), their liquidity ratio (lr), inflation (inf), exchange rate (exr), and gross domestic product (gdp) as independent variables for the period; 1975 – 2014. From the regression analysis, it was found that Gross Domestic Product and liquidity ratio of banks have the greatest impacts on their lending behavior. Granger Causality Test shows the evidence of unidirectional casual relationship from GDP to private sector credit. The study implies that GDP is the barometer of the economy and commercial banks should pay their attention to the overall macro economic situation of the country, factors affecting the GDP in general and their liquidity ratio in particular while taking lending decision.","PeriodicalId":372963,"journal":{"name":"NRB Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124722765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}