Behavioral Science and Policy最新文献

Hierarchy position & personality predict politicians’ choice of information sources 阶层地位与人格对政治家信息来源选择的预测

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800203

Jeroen K. Joly, J. Hofmans

引用次数: 0

Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate 选举民调有95%的信心，但准确率只有60%

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800202

Aditya Kotak, D. Moore

{"title":"Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate","authors":"Aditya Kotak, D. Moore","doi":"10.1177/237946152200800202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/237946152200800202","url":null,"abstract":"Election polls in the United States are more confident than accurate-meaning the reported margins of error often do not encompass the actual election outcomes in spite of pollsters claiming a 95% confidence level (that is, a 95% chance that their predictions will fall within the margin of error). In an analysis of polls for more than 6,000 contests, we have found that the actual vote total for a given candidate fell within the 95% confidence interval for just 60% of the polls. This degree of accuracy was reached only when the polls were conducted in the week before an election; accuracy was worse for polls conducted earlier. Polls would, in fact, need margins of error at least twice their current standard reported width to achieve 95% accuracy. We have also found that when laypeople read about poll results, they tend to overestimate the poll's accuracy, even when they have historical data demonstrating that the predictions made by polls are often inaccurate. These results illustrate polls’ vulnerability to overconfidence and the limitations of the lay public's understanding of these shortcomings. We conclude by suggesting ways that pollsters and reporters could enable the public to interpret poll data more realistically.","PeriodicalId":36971,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral Science and Policy","volume":"8 1","pages":"1 - 12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44384730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Penalties for Going Against Type: How Sexism Shapes Voters’ Perceptions of Candidate Character 反类型的惩罚:性别歧视如何影响选民对候选人性格的看法

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800205

J. McDonald, Jaclyn S. Piatak

{"title":"Penalties for Going Against Type: How Sexism Shapes Voters’ Perceptions of Candidate Character","authors":"J. McDonald, Jaclyn S. Piatak","doi":"10.1177/237946152200800205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/237946152200800205","url":null,"abstract":"Although women are increasingly represented in elected office, little is known about how a female candidate's gender influences voter approval when her messaging emphasizes her strong leadership ability—a character trait generally regarded as masculine. Drawing from theories of social cognition and gender stereotypes, we examine in this article how citizens react to male and female politicians who emphasize particular character traits. After synthesizing relevant literature, we report on a study conducted to see whether women lose public support for emphasizing their leadership ability—thus “going against type.” In a survey of more than 800 American adults, we found that respondents penalized a fictional woman running for Congress when her messaging to voters emphasized the core character trait of leadership, as opposed to compassion (a trait traditionally associated with women) or no character trait at all. In contrast, respondents viewed a fictional man more favorably when his messaging to voters went against type by highlighting compassion than when he emphasized leadership. These findings suggest that female candidates have fewer options than men do when selecting which personal characteristics to present in their messaging to gain the approval of the voting public. This result underscores the need for policies and programs that promote female leadership in all walks of life, thereby leading the public to associate leadership skill with both genders equally.","PeriodicalId":36971,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral Science and Policy","volume":"8 1","pages":"47 - 56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46388976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editor's note 编者按

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800201

Russell S. Hassan

引用次数: 0

Leadership & overconfidence 领导力与过度自信

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800206

D. Moore, M. Bazerman

引用次数: 0

Improving election outcomes through a better understanding of heuristic evaluation of candidates 通过更好地理解候选人的启发式评估来改善选举结果

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800204

Meng Li, David R. Glerum

引用次数: 0

Encouraging employees’ active feedback & participation when rolling out major changes 在推出重大变革时，鼓励员工积极反馈和参与

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800106

Elizabeth Hood, J. Bartunek

引用次数: 0

How to choose a default 如何选择默认值

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800102

J. Beshears, Richard T. Mason, S. Benartzi

引用次数: 0

Ventilator Allocations: The Effect of Mere Identifiability 通风机配置:单纯可识别性的影响

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800105

I. Ritov, Stephen M. Garcia

{"title":"Ventilator Allocations: The Effect of Mere Identifiability","authors":"I. Ritov, Stephen M. Garcia","doi":"10.1177/237946152200800105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/237946152200800105","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 crisis has raised a dire dilemma among medical professionals. Faced with a shortage of critical equipment and supplies, how do hospital administrators and physicians determine whether to divert resources from one patient to another? Most decision-makers will prioritize saving younger patients over older ones, because older patients generally have a much shorter life expectancy. But emotions, such as those elicited when a patient's name is known and the patient is thereby humanized, can interfere with rational decision-making. At the height of the pandemic, we conducted three studies in which participants were asked to imagine being hospital officials tasked with allocating ventilators under two conditions: when the affected patients were and were not identified by name. Participants were less likely to reassign a ventilator from an older patient to a younger one when the patients had been named than when they had not. These results suggest that decisionmakers are more likely to make the efficient choice—the one that should save more years of life—when the individuals affected by the choice remain anonymous. When patients are humanized by being named, less rational and more emotional considerations appear to govern how people choose to distribute lifesaving equipment. Our findings imply that keeping patients anonymous may help facilitate the efficient allocation of scarce medical resources.","PeriodicalId":36971,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral Science and Policy","volume":"8 1","pages":"35 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65686282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Encouraging COVID-19 vaccination through behaviorally informed reminders: Results from a national randomized field experiment in Israel 通过行为知情提醒鼓励COVID-19疫苗接种:以色列一项全国随机现场试验的结果

Behavioral Science and Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800104

Adi Berliner Senderey, R. Ohana, Shay Perchik, Ido Erev, R. Balicer

引用次数: 1