Sébastien Kraenzlin, Christoph Meyer, Thomas Nellen
{"title":"COVID-19 and regional shifts in Swiss retail payments.","authors":"Sébastien Kraenzlin, Christoph Meyer, Thomas Nellen","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00061-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00061-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper analyzes card payments to the retail sector in Switzerland during the COVID-19 crisis. We provide evidence on aggregate effects and regional shifts. Pronounced shifts-which persisted post-lockdown-can be observed from urban to suburban and rural areas and among cantons. Data allow us to identify directly two sources of shifts: \"tourists and business travelers\" and \"e-commerce.\" We indirectly identify additional sources: infection risk, lockdown measures, working from home, shopping tourism, and cash substitution. The COVID-19 crisis seems to have reinforced pre-existing trends that may have faster than anticipated effects on the economy. Our analysis underscores the usefulness of real-time card payment data to inform policymakers.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-020-00061-x","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38964700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland.","authors":"Martin Huber, Henrika Langen","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00054-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00054-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We assess the impact of the timing of lockdown measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based on measuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemic and comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. When estimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control for regional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression (Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or synthetic controls (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively later exposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and death rates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggesting that an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. For Germany, we further evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) based on cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top of the federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2 individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-020-00054-w","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38326148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Augmented wealth in Switzerland: the influence of pension wealth on wealth inequality.","authors":"Ursina Kuhn","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00063-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00063-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Entitlements for social security and occupational pensions present a major wealth component and play a central role for financial security. However, most individual-level data lacks information on pension wealth. By linking various data sources, this contribution estimates the present value of future pension entitlements in Switzerland for statutory pensions, occupational pensions and third pillar accounts and analyses the distribution of augmented wealth, which combines pension wealth and net worth. The CH-SILC survey from 2015 is used to estimate real assets, financial assets and pension wealth of retired individuals. The pension entitlements of non-retired individuals are simulated on the basis of their earning history from administrative records following the accrual method and assuming a real discount rate of 2%. When pension wealth is added to net worth, average wealth doubles, and the Gini-coefficient declines by 26%. The equalising effect is particularly strong for social security pensions. The wealth distribution differs strongly between the three pillars of the pension system; there are also strong differences between gender and age groups. In Switzerland, wealth accumulation continues after retirement age.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7651273/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38701363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Konstantin Büchel, Stefan Legge, Vincent Pochon, Philipp Wegmüller
{"title":"Swiss trade during the COVID-19 pandemic: an early appraisal.","authors":"Konstantin Büchel, Stefan Legge, Vincent Pochon, Philipp Wegmüller","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00069-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00069-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study uses trade data from Switzerland's Federal Customs Administration to examine the impact of Covid-19 on international goods trade between January and July 2020. We show that Swiss trade during that period fell by 11% compared to 2019 and that the contraction following the \"Federal Lockdown\" in mid-March was considerably steeper than the Swiss trade collapse in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. Examining cross-country variation in Covid-19 cases, the stringency of containment measures, and Swiss trade flows, we document that the pandemic adversely affected both the demand and supply side of foreign trade, while trade restrictions and exchange rate fluctuations played no major role behind the rapid decline of Swiss trade in the first half of 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7768598/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39123928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tracking inflation on a daily basis.","authors":"Santiago E Alvarez, Sarah M Lein","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00062-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00062-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Using online data for prices and real-time debit card transaction data on changes in expenditures for Switzerland allows us to track inflation on a daily basis. While the daily price index fluctuates around the official price index in normal times, it drops immediately after the lockdown related to the COVID19 pandemic. Official statistics reflect this drop only with a lag, specifically because data collection takes time and is impeded by lockdown conditions. Such daily real-time information can be useful to gauge the relative importance of demand and supply shocks and thus inform policymakers who need to determine appropriate policy measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7609834/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38679633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marius Brülhart, Rafael Lalive, Tobias Lehmann, Michael Siegenthaler
{"title":"COVID-19 financial support to small businesses in Switzerland: evaluation and outlook.","authors":"Marius Brülhart, Rafael Lalive, Tobias Lehmann, Michael Siegenthaler","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00060-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00060-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We analyse small businesses' recourse to public support measures during the COVID-19 crisis using a survey of 1011 self-employed workers and small business owners in Switzerland. We find that \"objective\" measures of lockdown affectedness and economic structure explain fairly well how businesses availed of support measures to cover labour costs. Recourse to government-backed corona loans, however, appears to be driven to a larger extent by behavioural idiosyncrasies across firms. Specifically, previously indebted businesses took out corona loans more readily than those who had been debt-free before the pandemic. Since uptake is not well in line with firm fundamentals, we propose making loan repayments contingent on future profits. This will more effectively target and sustain businesses that are in trouble today but would be viable in the absence COVID-19.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7556580/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38609914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A lockdown index to assess the economic impact of the coronavirus.","authors":"Marius Faber, Andrea Ghisletta, Kurt Schmidheiny","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00056-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00056-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Like most countries, the Swiss government adopted drastic measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus. These measures were aimed at avoiding close physical proximity between people. The adverse economic consequences of this lockdown policy became immediately apparent, with almost two million workers, or more than every third worker in Switzerland, being put on short-time work within only 6 weeks after the policy's implementation. In an attempt to promptly assess the heterogeneous consequences of this lockdown policy, we computed a <i>lockdown index</i>. This index is based on an occupation's dependence on physical proximity to other people and corrected for certain essential sectors being exempt from this policy. We find that on average, 31% of jobs in Switzerland have been potentially restricted by the lockdown policy. This average masks considerable heterogeneity along many dimensions, with the strongest effects for the large industries hospitality, construction, and arts and entertainment. With respect to the regional variation, we find the strongest effects for the cantons of Obwalden, Uri, Appenzell Innerrhoden, and Valais. Moreover, low- and middle-income individuals are considerably more restricted than high-income ones. We do not find meaningful differences between men and women or urban and rural areas. Finally, we test the explanatory power of the lockdown index for short-time work and unemployment increases by canton and industry until the end of April 2020 and find that it can explain up to 58% of these short-term employment outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7453704/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38335147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Swiss franc safety premium.","authors":"Jessica Leutert","doi":"10.1186/s41937-017-0014-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-017-0014-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper applies a recent method proposed by Maggiori (<i>The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium</i>, 2013) to estimate the Swiss franc safety premium. The results show that the three-step instrumental variable approach as used by Maggiori does not work for the Swiss franc exchange rates. The price of risk estimates take unrealistic, negative values. One possible explanation is that the approach as it is used by Maggiori suffers from a measurement error for the expected exchange rate which represents a potential source of imprecision. By using the prediction of an augmented Fama regression to measure the expected exchange rate change, this measurement error can be avoided and the safety premium estimates become more realistic and closer to those obtained with a maximum likelihood-estimated GARCH approach. Overall, however, the GARCH approach still seems to be preferable to the instrumental variable approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"154 1","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-017-0014-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stefan Klößner, Ashok Kaul, Gregor Pfeifer, Manuel Schieler
{"title":"Comparative politics and the synthetic control method revisited: a note on Abadie et al. (2015).","authors":"Stefan Klößner, Ashok Kaul, Gregor Pfeifer, Manuel Schieler","doi":"10.1186/s41937-017-0004-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-017-0004-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recently, Abadie et al. (Am J Polit Sci 59:495-510, 2015) have expanded synthetic control methods by the so-called cross-validation technique. We find that their results are not being reproduced when alternative software packages are used or when the variables' ordering within the dataset is changed. We show that this failure stems from the cross-validation technique relying on non-uniquely defined predictor weights. While the amount of the resulting ambiguity is negligible for the main application of Abadie et al. (Am J Polit Sci 59:495-510, 2015), we find it to be substantial for several of their robustness analyses. Applying well-defined, standard synthetic control methods reveals that the authors' results are particularly driven by a specific control country, the USA.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"154 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-017-0004-9","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On economists as policy advisors with applications to Switzerland.","authors":"Aymo Brunetti","doi":"10.1186/s41937-017-0009-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-017-0009-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper analyses the role of economists in advising political agents. Based on the experience in the recent financial crisis, it starts with the important role of expectations management. Economists should make clear that precise forecasts are not possible but that application of economic principles and careful analysis of data and historical events can substantially improve political decisions. In order to be effective, economic advisors have to be aware of the first best as well as of the political feasibility of proposals. Efficiency is the obvious benchmark, but a large part of policy advice is about finding the least inefficient of the feasible alternatives. The paper argues that a crucial precondition for being an effective policy advisor are communication skills; academics who become policy advisors should not try to impress their peers but rather translate insights in a language that is understandable for educated laypeople. The paper then looks at the special situation of economic policy advice in the Swiss direct democracy before concluding with a summary of the most important preconditions for being a successful policy advisor.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"154 1","pages":"2"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-017-0009-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}