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Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics最新文献

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Firms' participation in the Swiss COVID-19 loan programme. 企业参与瑞士 COVID-19 贷款计划的情况。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00070-4
Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Marc-Antoine Ramelet, Jörn Tenhofen
{"title":"Firms' participation in the Swiss COVID-19 loan programme.","authors":"Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Marc-Antoine Ramelet, Jörn Tenhofen","doi":"10.1186/s41937-021-00070-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-021-00070-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper analyses the determinants of firm participation in the Swiss COVID-19 loan programme, which aims to bridge firms' liquidity shortfalls that have resulted from the pandemic. State-guaranteed COVID-19 loans are widely used by Swiss firms, with 20% of all firms participating, resulting in a sizeable programme of 2.4% of GDP. We use a comprehensive dataset to study the determinants of firm participation. Our results can be summarised as follows. First, participation was largely driven by the exposure of a firm to lockdown restrictions and to the intensity of the virus in the specific region. Second, we show that firms associated with lower liquidity ratios had a significantly higher probability of participating in the programme. Third, we find no clear evidence that firm indebtedness affected participation in the programme and no evidence that pre-existing potential \"zombie firms\" participated more strongly in the loan programme. Fourth, we show that the programme reached younger and smaller firms, which could be financially more vulnerable as they are less likely to obtain outside finance during a crisis. Overall, we conclude that given its objective, the programme appears to be successful.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"157 1","pages":"2"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8094977/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38964702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown. 在 COVID-19 大流行期间拯救生命：瑞士首次封锁的益处。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-08-12 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2
Nicolò Gatti, Beatrice Retali
{"title":"Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown.","authors":"Nicolò Gatti, Beatrice Retali","doi":"10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The implementation of a lockdown to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a strong economic and political debate in several countries. This makes it crucial to shed light on the actual benefits of such kind of policy. To this purpose, we focus on the Swiss lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 infections and estimate the number of potentially saved lives. To predict the number of deaths in the absence of any restrictive measure, we develop a novel age-structured SIRDC model which accounts for age-specific endogenous behavioral responses and for seasonal patterns in the spread of the virus. Including the additional fatalities which would have materialized because of the shortage of healthcare resources, our estimates suggest that the lockdown prevented more than 11,200 deaths between March and the beginning of September 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"157 1","pages":"4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8358557/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39320167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
"Too shocked to search" The COVID-19 shutdowns' impact on the search for apprenticeships. "震惊得无法寻找" COVID-19 停产对寻找学徒的影响。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00075-z
Daniel Goller, Stefan C Wolter
{"title":"\"Too shocked to search\" The COVID-19 shutdowns' impact on the search for apprenticeships.","authors":"Daniel Goller, Stefan C Wolter","doi":"10.1186/s41937-021-00075-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-021-00075-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Even though the recession in Switzerland triggered by COVID-19 ultimately remained without consequences for the apprenticeship market, significantly fewer apprenticeship contracts had been signed in the months of the first shutdown in 2020 than in the same months of the previous year. Using daily search queries on the national administrative platform for apprenticeship vacancies from February 2020 until April 2021 as a proxy for the supply of potential apprentices, we find a temporal pattern that coincides perfectly with the development of signed apprenticeship contracts. Furthermore, the analyses show that the initially very strong relationship between the intensity of the politically imposed restrictions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and the daily search queries diminished over time, leading to a search intensity in March 2021 that was back at pre-pandemic level.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"157 1","pages":"6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481316/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39509898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blacking out. 涂料。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00052-y
Yvan Lengwiler
{"title":"Blacking out.","authors":"Yvan Lengwiler","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00052-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00052-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The partial shutdown of the economy following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of measurements of economic activity that are available with a short lag and at high frequency. The consumption of electricity turns out to be a valuable proxy, if it is corrected for influences from calendar and weather. Indeed, this proxy suggests that we are currently facing one of the deepest recessions ever.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7376327/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38301505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Mobility and sales activity during the Corona crisis: daily indicators for Switzerland. 科罗娜危机期间的流动性和销售活动：瑞士的每日指标。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-08-24 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00055-9
Florian Eckert, Heiner Mikosch
{"title":"Mobility and sales activity during the Corona crisis: daily indicators for Switzerland.","authors":"Florian Eckert, Heiner Mikosch","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00055-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00055-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper documents daily compound indicators on physical mobility and sales activity in Switzerland during the Corona crisis. We report several insights from these indicators: The Swiss population substantially reduced its activities already before the shops closed and before the authorities introduced containment policies in mid-March 2020. Activity started to gradually recover from the beginning of April onwards, again substantially before the first phase of the shutdown easing started at the end of April. Low physical mobility during the second half of March and during April likely contributed to the quick fall in new COVID-19 infections since mid-March. The sharp drop in economic activity in consumer-related services during March and April and the gradual recovery in these sectors since May correlate strongly with the reduction and subsequent gradual resurgence of mobility. In addition, while activity within Switzerland was back to normal levels by late June, activity of Swiss residents outside of Switzerland was still below normal.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444447/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38326147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 outbreak and beyond: the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting. 2019冠状病毒病爆发及之后:注册短期工人的信息内容与GDP的现状及预测
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-09-11 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00053-x
Sylvia Kaufmann
{"title":"COVID-19 outbreak and beyond: the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting.","authors":"Sylvia Kaufmann","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00053-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00053-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to extract unexpected changes or shocks to log short-time workers. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate model for quarterly GDP growth to capture timely, current-quarter unexpected changes in growth dynamics. Included shocks additionally explain 24% in GDP growth variation. The model is able to forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval includes a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A recovery to pre-crisis GDP level in 2021 lies only in the upper tail of the 95% highest forecast density interval.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-020-00053-x","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38386586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective. 2019冠状病毒病大流行后瑞士的失业率:跨期视角
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
George Sheldon
{"title":"Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective.","authors":"George Sheldon","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid-19 pandemic with previous employment crises in Switzerland. In addition, it forecasts the future trajectory of unemployment based on ongoing changes in hazard rates. From a historical perspective, current unemployment as well as that expected by the federal authorities in the medium term do not seem that dramatic. Current hazard rates present a different picture, however, predicting increases in both the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment to record levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38502109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
The impact of human capital efficiency on Latin American mutual funds during Covid-19 outbreak. 人力资本效率在 Covid-19 爆发期间对拉丁美洲共同基金的影响。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00066-6
Nawazish Mirza, Jamila Abaidi Hasnaoui, Bushra Naqvi, Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi
{"title":"The impact of human capital efficiency on Latin American mutual funds during Covid-19 outbreak.","authors":"Nawazish Mirza, Jamila Abaidi Hasnaoui, Bushra Naqvi, Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00066-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00066-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The mutual funds' returns, inter alia, are dependent on fund managers' performance. This makes human capital efficiency very central for consistent risk-adjusted performance. The persistence in performance becomes more critical during periods of high turbulence, like the one we are experiencing amidst the outbreak of Covid-19. In this research, we attempt to evaluate the performance of equity funds in massively impacted Latin American countries. These equity funds, with 95% of their investment in the infected region, are ranked as per their human capital efficiency using 2019 as the base year. Our findings demonstrate that funds with higher human capital efficiency significantly outperform their counterparts that rank lower on human capital efficiency. These findings remained consistent for the sub-periods that we specify to map the evolution of Covid-19. We conclude that equity funds should enhance their human capital efficiency to endure resilience amid macroeconomic shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7576546/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38623683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy. 瑞士经济的每日发烧曲线。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00051-z
Marc Burri, Daniel Kaufmann
{"title":"A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy.","authors":"Marc Burri,&nbsp;Daniel Kaufmann","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00051-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00051-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving COVID-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of 1 day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41937-020-00051-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38301504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data. COVID-19 时代的加权偏差和通货膨胀：来自瑞士交易数据的证据。
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7
Pascal Seiler
{"title":"Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data.","authors":"Pascal Seiler","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was -0.4<i>%</i> by April 2020, compared to -1.1<i>%</i> of the equivalent CPI. Persistent \"low-touch\" consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493696/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38404997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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