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Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election 敌意性别歧视与2016年总统大选
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3543724
Ann L. Owen, Andrew Wei
{"title":"Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election","authors":"Ann L. Owen, Andrew Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3543724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3543724","url":null,"abstract":"We use Google Trends data over the 2004-2015 period to identify hostile sexism and examine its effect on support for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election. An area’s sexist search volume is a significant negative predictor of Clinton’s two-party vote share. Although we find no evidence that hostile sexism was more prevalent among conservative and less educated whites prior to the election, we do find evidence that it had a larger impact in areas with this demographic. We argue that demographic groups targeted by Trump may have been more receptive to his rhetoric. Our main contribution to the literature is showing that sexism had a politically consequential effect. We calculate that sexism cost Clinton 2.6 percentage points of her two-party vote share. In state-level simulations that are made possible by our use of Google Trends data, we show that Clinton would have won an additional 190 electoral college votes if every state had the same level of sexism as the least sexist state.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121964194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Presidential Elections, Divided Politics, and Happiness in the U.S. 美国的总统选举、分裂政治和幸福
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2020-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3586049
Sergio Pinto, P. Bencsik, Tuugi Chuluun, C. Graham
{"title":"Presidential Elections, Divided Politics, and Happiness in the U.S.","authors":"Sergio Pinto, P. Bencsik, Tuugi Chuluun, C. Graham","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3586049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3586049","url":null,"abstract":"We use Gallup data and a regression discontinuity approach to examine the effects of the 2016 and 2012 U.S. presidential election outcomes on subjective well-being across party identification, relying primarily on evaluative (life satisfaction) and hedonic (positive and negative affect) indicators. We find that both elections had a strong negative well-being effect on those who identified with the losing party while generating little or no increase in well-being for those who identified with the winning party. Consequently, both elections had a net negative well-being effect. The negative well-being effects on the losing side were larger in 2016 than in 2012, by a factor of three on some indicators, and were driven mainly by women and middle-income households. Furthermore, local voting patterns did not have a meaningful impact on individual well-being and the well-being effect was not driven by the results of congressional elections taking place the same day. In 2016, the election also changed respondents’ perceptions about the economy, their financial status, and their community. The well-being of Independents was negatively affected in 2012, but data on partisan leanings of Independents available in 2016 show that the well-being effect on Independents are similar in direction, but smaller in magnitude, to those of the party they lean toward. For both elections, hedonic well-being gaps across party affiliation dissipate within two weeks, but there is substantial persistence in evaluative well-being gaps, especially in expected life satisfaction. Following the 2016 election, the latter gap persisted throughout 2017, peaking during the inauguration period.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132886246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Persuading Strategic Voters 说服有策略的选民
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3550071
Toygar T. Kerman, P. Herings, Dominik Karos
{"title":"Persuading Strategic Voters","authors":"Toygar T. Kerman, P. Herings, Dominik Karos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3550071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550071","url":null,"abstract":"A Sender wants to persuade multiple Receivers with homogeneous preferences and a common belief about the state of the world to vote in favor of a proposal. Prior to the vote Sender commits to a communication strategy which sends private, potentially correlated, signals to Receivers that are contingent on the true state of the world. While Sender benefits from using private messages rather than public communication if Receivers vote sincerely, under the optimal communication strategy, sincere voting is not in any Receiver’s best interest. If the proposal does not require unanimous agreement, Sender’s optimal communication strategy after which sincere voting indeed constitutes a Bayes-Nash equilibrium is such that no voter is ever pivotal.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129506108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The Effect of Trust, Easiness, Security, and Benefits of Interest Using E-Money 使用电子货币的信任、舒适、安全与利益效益效应
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3510168
Osly Usman, Thasya Nabilla
{"title":"The Effect of Trust, Easiness, Security, and Benefits of Interest Using E-Money","authors":"Osly Usman, Thasya Nabilla","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3510168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3510168","url":null,"abstract":"Research aimed to test: \u0000 \u00001. The influence of Trust towards Interest of Using E-money \u0000 \u00002. The influence of Easiness on the Interest Of Using E-money \u0000 \u00003. The influence of Security to the Interest Of Using E-money \u0000 \u00004. The influence of Benefits on Interest of Using E-money \u0000 \u00005. The influence of Trust, Easiness, Security and Benefits against the Interest Of Using E-money \u0000 \u0000The purpose of this study is to get proper knowledge and trustworthy on the Influence of Trust, Easiness, Security, Benefits, and Interest of Using E-money. This research was conducted in Indonesia, with a total sample of 200 respondents, namely research. Data was analyzed using SEM techniques, for the purpose of this study was to test the theory, the engineering analysis conducted is based on SEM (Covariance-based SEM), the SEM approach that uses tools PLS. Tools used in the analysis is the PLS approach is SmartPLS 3.0. The results showed that the variables that have a major influence on Interest of Using E-money are Benefits. Meanwhile, variables that have a low impact on Interest of Using E-money was Easiness.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114084932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Voter Demand for Legislator Attention in Kenya 肯尼亚选民要求立法者关注
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3507426
Inbok Rhee
{"title":"Voter Demand for Legislator Attention in Kenya","authors":"Inbok Rhee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3507426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507426","url":null,"abstract":"What do African voters want from their legislators? Do they want legislators who focus mainly on national level policy-making? Or do they favor locally oriented legislators who prioritize the needs of their local constituency? Existing studies describe voters in sub-Saharan Africa as holding an overwhelmingly strong and uniform preference for legislators to spend more time and attention in their local constituencies rather than in national assembly. Yet this research is based on a relatively limited body of work with findings that may reflect artifacts of survey design more than the reality on the ground. This chapter proposes a new theory of voter preference for legislator attention as an allocation problem, informed by qualitative evidence gathered from an in-depth focus group discussion. Using a survey experimental evidence from Kenya, I find that voters do not uniformly favor local service to the exclusion of work in the parliament. Rather voters prefer a balance between national and local attention. I show that such a preference for a balance is similar to that exhibited by voters in advanced democracies.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"257 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122640168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social Connectivity, Media Bias, and Correlation Neglect 社会连通性、媒体偏见和相关性忽视
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3503562
Philipp Denter, Martin Dumav, Boris Ginzburg
{"title":"Social Connectivity, Media Bias, and Correlation Neglect","authors":"Philipp Denter, Martin Dumav, Boris Ginzburg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3503562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3503562","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A biased newspaper aims to persuade voters to vote for the government. Voters are uncertain about the government’s competence. Each voter receives the newspaper’s report as well as independent private signals about the competence. Voters then exchange messages containing this information on social media and form posterior beliefs, neglecting correlation among messages. We show that greater social connectivity increases the probability of an efficient voting outcome if the prior favours the government; otherwise, efficiency decreases. The probability of an efficient outcome remains strictly below one even when connectivity becomes large, implying a failure of the Condorcet jury theorem.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114690170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Partisanship and Survey Refusal 党派之争和拒绝调查
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3948434
Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky
{"title":"Partisanship and Survey Refusal","authors":"Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3948434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3948434","url":null,"abstract":"Survey refusal in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has tripled over the last decade. This rise coincides with the emergence of rhetoric, largely from the political right, questioning the accuracy and integrity of government statistics. We examine how support for the Tea Party and the Republican party have affected CPS refusal rates and whether households are more likely to participate in the survey when their preferred political party holds the White House. Using state and metro vote shares or an individual-level model based on the longitudinal structure of the CPS, we find no evidence that Republican or Tea Party supporters drive the long-term upward trend in refusals. We do find evidence of a political cycle in response rates. Refusal rates since 2015 exhibit polarization, with the fastest growth in refusals among those least likely to support Trump and the Tea Party. Evidence from an analysis which generates exogenous variation in Tea Party support using rain on the day of the first Tea Party rally indicates that exposure to anti-survey rhetoric decreases refusal rates, consistent with the findings from our other analyses.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"11 22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129987651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rulers or Rules? International Law, Elite Cues and Public Opinion 统治者还是规则?国际法，精英线索和公众舆论
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/ejil/chaa002
Anton Strezhnev, B. Simmons, Matthew D. Kim
{"title":"Rulers or Rules? International Law, Elite Cues and Public Opinion","authors":"Anton Strezhnev, B. Simmons, Matthew D. Kim","doi":"10.1093/ejil/chaa002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ejil/chaa002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 One of the mechanisms by which international law can shape domestic politics is through its effects on public opinion. However, a growing number of national leaders have begun to advocate policies that ignore or even deny international law constraints. This article investigates whether international law messages can still shift public opinion even in the face of countervailing elite cues. It reports results from survey experiments conducted in three countries – the USA, Australia and India – which examined attitudes on a highly salient domestic political issue: restrictions on refugee admissions. In each experimental vignette, respondents were asked about their opinion on a proposed or ongoing restrictive refugee policy that was endorsed by the government but also likely contravened international refugee law. Respondents were randomly exposed to messages highlighting the policy’s illegality and/or elite endorsement. The results show that, on average, the international law messages had a small but significant persuasive effect in reducing support for the restrictive policy, at most 10 percentage points. Surprisingly, there was no evidence that the countervailing elite endorsement was a significant moderator of this effect. However, in the case of the USA and among Republican co-partisans of the president, the elite endorsement independently increased respondents’ beliefs that the restriction was legal under international law while having no effect on support for the policy. The results suggest that cues from domestic elites do not strictly trump those from international sources and that, despite cues about national leaders’ policy advocacy, international law can affect the attitudes of some voters even on an issue as heavily politicized as refugee policy.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116503175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
The Double Discount: How Temporal and Spatial Distance Affect Policy Support 双重折扣:时空距离如何影响政策支持
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3292778
Nathan R. Lee, B. Macdonald, Gregg Sparkman
{"title":"The Double Discount: How Temporal and Spatial Distance Affect Policy Support","authors":"Nathan R. Lee, B. Macdonald, Gregg Sparkman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3292778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3292778","url":null,"abstract":"How does the combination of spatial and temporal distance affect policy support? Many policy challenges are characterized by long time horizons (e.g., multiple generations) and high geographic dispersion (e.g., multiple countries). However, existing studies which characterize how citizens discount policy benefits typically treat these dimensions in isolation. In this study, we use conjoint experiments to assess how citizens discount policy benefits across both time and space. Through a national survey in Japan, we find that citizens discount policy consequences in their own country but which are two generations removed (40-50 years) at a similar rate that they discount contemporary benefits that primarily accrue in other countries. Moreover, these effects are additive, so policies which are distant in both dimensions receive the lowest levels of support. This study underscores the unique challenges of garnering political support for the provision of global, multi-generational public goods.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115889176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early Voting Experiences and Habit Formation 早期投票经验与习惯形成
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3466515
Elias Dinas, Vicente Valentim, Nikolaj Broberg, M. Franklin
{"title":"Early Voting Experiences and Habit Formation","authors":"Elias Dinas, Vicente Valentim, Nikolaj Broberg, M. Franklin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3466515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3466515","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Research has shown that first-time voting experiences affect subsequent voting behavior, with salient elections boosting subsequent turnout and non-salient ones suppressing it. We challenge this view. Following research on the context-dependent nature of habit formation, we argue that all elections should affect subsequent turnout in elections of the same type. Comparing individuals that differ only in how salient their first eligible election was (Presidential or Midterm), we find support for this expectation. Individuals are more likely to vote for, and be interested in, elections of the same type as their first voting experience. Leveraging voting age laws in the US, we also show that such laws affect subsequent participation by changing the type of election individuals are first eligible for.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121994492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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