{"title":"When simplicity fails: forecasting Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Macao during structural breaks with a hybrid economic-search model","authors":"Xiaoqing Luo","doi":"10.1007/s41685-026-00419-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-026-00419-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The volatility of tourism demands under structural breaks pose significant challenges for destination management and policy planning. To address this critical issue, we developed a novel Hybrid Economic-Search Model (HESM) that synergistically integrates multidimensional data sources through an innovative two-stage forecasting architecture. Our framework uniquely combined composite diffusion index capturing macroeconomic regime shifts with a principal components-based Baidu Search Index reflecting real-time tourist intent. The model architecture employed a structured linear component to capture baseline relationships and interaction effects, followed by an XGBoost-based non-linear corrector to resolve residual patterns. Evaluated on the post-pandemic recovery period (2023–2024), HESM reduced the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE of the best-performing SARIMA benchmark by 27.07%, 26.62%, and 26.04%, respectively. Ablation studies further validated the individual and synergistic contributions of both economic and search data components. The model maintained robust performance across different market regimes, as confirmed through pre-pandemic validation. Our findings provide both methodological advancements and practical insights, demonstrating that hybrid frameworks leveraging multi-source data offer a paradigm shift in tourism forecasting accuracy under structural instability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147341228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring the influencing factors and applying practices for the coordinated integration of digital economy and agricultural systems: evidence from China","authors":"Qiong Wu, Chenyujing Yang, Xiaomeng Liang, Yongji Xue","doi":"10.1007/s41685-026-00422-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-026-00422-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Deep integration of digital economy and agricultural systems is essential for advancing modernization and sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas. This study constructs a comprehensive index system for both the digital economy and agricultural systems, grounded in an integrated economic-social-ecological framework of agricultural development and guided by the logic of digital infrastructure expansion. Based on this system, we measured the coupling coordination index between the digital economy and agricultural systems across 31 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2022. A Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model was further employed to investigate the key factors influencing the degree of coupling and coordination between the two systems. The results revealed a steadily increasing trend in the coupling coordination between the digital economy and agricultural systems in China. However, notable regional disparities persisted, with the eastern provinces demonstrating higher levels of coordination, while the western regions remained relatively underdeveloped. The analysis identified the lag in digital economy development as a primary constraint on coordination. Moreover, scientific and technological progress, educational advancement, optimization of industrial structure, and fiscal investment were found to significantly enhance the integration of the digital economy and agricultural systems. Overall, this study develops a systematic analytical framework that underscores the pivotal role of digital-agricultural integration in driving the modernization and sustainable transformation of agriculture and rural regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147341230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Farmland transfer effects on rural industrial integration: evidence from provincial China","authors":"Li Juan, Min Jiang, Euijune Kim","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00405-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00405-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rural industrial integration, defined as the integration of agriculture with manufacturing and services sectors, is essential for revitalizing rural economies in developing countries. In China, this process has advanced alongside land reforms that permit the market-based transfer of farmers’ contracted land-use rights, aiming to improve land use efficiency and support rural economic restructuring. This study examines how land transfer affects rural industrial integration in China, using a Rural Industrial Integration Index to capture the degree of cross-sectoral integration in rural areas. Based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020 and a two-way fixed effects model, results show that a 1-percentage-point increase in the land transfer rate leads to a 0.15% increase in the integration index on average. The effect is driven by industrial agglomeration, investment growth, and labor mobility. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger impacts in eastern provinces (0.32%) and in non-grain-producing areas (0.19%) compared to their counterparts. These findings underscore the catalytic role of land reform in promoting rural economic diversification. China’s experience offers valuable insights for developing countries aiming to enhance rural transformation through institutional land reforms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147341220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Minimum wage differentials and commuting across districts","authors":"Tifani Husna Siregar, Carlos Mendez","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00415-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00415-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examined the effect of cross-district minimum wage differentials on workers’ commuting probabilities in the pre-pandemic era of the Greater Jakarta Metropolitan Area (Jabodetabek). We found that minimum wages in cross-border districts, along with differentials between home and neighboring district minimum wages, significantly affect worker commuting probabilities. These findings highlighted important methodological considerations when analyzing labor survey data, as such data typically reflect workers’ residential locations rather than their employment sites. Furthermore, labor market policies implemented within specific jurisdictional boundaries may generate spillover effects into neighboring labor markets, particularly in regions characterized by high mobility. Overall, the evidence indicated that in an integrated urban region like Jabodetabek, statutory minimum-wage differences that arise directly from district administrative boundaries partly shape formal workers’ commuting behavior, implying that these jurisdictional divisions and the cross-district wage incentives they create should be taken into account in minimum-wage policy design and evaluation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147338972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yoji Kunimitsu, Maria Ikegawa, Mitsuru Okiyama, Suminori Tokunaga
{"title":"Consistency in gravity‑model valuations of non‑tariff measures in agro‑food trade","authors":"Yoji Kunimitsu, Maria Ikegawa, Mitsuru Okiyama, Suminori Tokunaga","doi":"10.1007/s41685-026-00418-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-026-00418-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To assess the economic impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs), prior studies measured ad valorem tariff equivalents (AVEs) using gravity models. However, questions persist about the extent to which product- and country-specific AVE estimates are consistent across studies, because AVEs depend on parameters estimated from different data and models. This study compared product- and country-specific AVEs estimated in two studies (World Bank 2019; Kravchenko et al. 2022) and evaluated the reliability of NTM reduction effects and policy implications using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with the estimated AVEs. The findings revealed the following: First, AVEs estimated by the two studies were consistent at approximately 10% considering the total average (all products and countries worldwide), but values for products and countries differed significantly. Second, the global CGE assessment showed that products and countries affected by NTM reductions varied substantially when different AVEs were applied. Third, NTM reductions for products or countries with unknown AVEs resulted in negative export changes due to trade substitution. If the missing AVEs were 10%, the positive direct effect outweighed the substitution effect. Finally, the effects of NTM reductions—measured using AVEs of previous studies—were not significantly greater than those of tariff reductions. Given the questionable reliability of AVE estimates for NTMs, policymakers should recognize that the effectiveness of NTM reductions in agro-food trade remains uncertain. To derive reliable policy implications for NTMs, it is essential to examine the extent to which exporting companies in each country incur additional costs compared to domestic producers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147335889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Majid Ali, Rana Muhammad Sohail Jafar, Saira Mahmood, Muhammad Nadeem, Safdar Hussain
{"title":"Causal linkages in the water–food–energy nexus: household-level evidence from Punjab, Pakistan","authors":"Majid Ali, Rana Muhammad Sohail Jafar, Saira Mahmood, Muhammad Nadeem, Safdar Hussain","doi":"10.1007/s41685-026-00417-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-026-00417-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Punjab is the most populous province of Pakistan and is on track towards water scarcity, energy crises, and food insecurity. All these challenges are interwoven and affect the potential of this region to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation) and SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy). The present research analyzed the causal relationships between water, food and energy resources at the household level, inquiring into the socioeconomic and environmental determinants. Based on a statistical method for sample calculation, data from 386 households were collected from Punjab Province. Three indices were used in this study, namely Water Poverty Index, Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index, and the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. The application of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) tested the causal links underlying these resources. The key findings revealed emerging rural–urban disparities; rural households are extremely poor in water and energy as well as simultaneously suffer from food insecurity. According to the SEM results, improving one resource will positively improve others, hence calling for a resource-based approach. The development of water infrastructural facilities, promotion of renewable energy, and improvement in agriculture practices are needed to achieve water, energy and food security and meet SDGs 2, 6, and 7.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147335750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Md. Saiful Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Anis ur Rehman, Haider Ali Biswas
{"title":"Performance of renewable energy technology and environmental safety in the Hail region of Saudi Arabia: moderating effect of regulatory governance and public awareness","authors":"Md. Saiful Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Anis ur Rehman, Haider Ali Biswas","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00403-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00403-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Renewable energy technologies, e.g., solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles and wind turbines, are instrumental in producing renewable energy and promoting environmental safety. We examined how these technologies enhance environmental safety, considering regulatory governance and public awareness from the perspectives of residents in the Hail Region of Saudi Arabia. We administered a questionnaire survey using a purposive sampling technique with 275 respondents and analyzed the data using a PLS-SEM approach. Wind energy technology significantly improved environmental safety, moderated by regulatory governance and public awareness. In contrast, the roles of solar energy and electric vehicle technologies in environmental safety were found to be ineffective, even when moderated by both regulatory governance and public awareness. While the age of respondents emerged as a relevant factor, gender, occupation and education level did not significantly impact the improvement of environmental health. We conclude that advocating for the establishment of robust regulatory governance can enhance the functionality of solar and electric vehicle technologies and contribute to the environmental safety of Hail, Saudi Arabia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146026807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign direct investment and income inequality in Vietnam: nonlinear dynamics and the moderating role of local institutions","authors":"Nguyen Thi Thanh Mai","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00414-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00414-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Vietnam receives large amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI), yet these inflows are uneven across provinces. This raises a practical question: under what conditions does FDI increase income inequality within provinces, and when does it help reduce it? Using data for all 63 provinces (2018–2023), we linked the GINI coefficient compiled by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) with registered FDI from Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) and estimated fixed-effects models with province-level cluster-robust, heteroskedasticity-consistent Type-1 (MacKinnon-White; HC1) standard errors and Driscoll-Kraay errors, allowed for nonlinearity of log(FDI + 1), included a one-year lag, and implemented Hansen’s panel-threshold test based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI). We found an inverted-U effect in the contemporaneous relationship: inequality increased with FDI up to a turning region of about USD 41.5–48.5 million, after which additional FDI did not increase inequality. Dynamically, a one-log-point increase in last year’s FDI (roughly doubling) was linked to an approximate 0.003 decrease in the GINI, suggesting short-run benefits through employment and supplier linkages. A governance breakpoint near a PCI score of approximately 62.4 separated two regimes: when PCI was below this level, the inverted-U was salient; when PCI was above it, the FDI terms were jointly insignificant, and the average FDI×PCI interaction was negative but imprecise. These findings represent short-run, within-province associations and suggest that provincial policymakers and national ministries should focus on improving governance in low-PCI provinces and emphasize diffusion tools rather than broad concessions in high-PCI provinces.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146026806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From efficiency measurement to spatial correlation: slacks-based directional distance function and Moran’s I study of Vietnam’s provincial development","authors":"Anh Ton Pham","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00416-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00416-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper evaluates the efficiency of 63 Vietnamese provinces over the 2018–2023 period by employing a slacks-based directional distance function (SBM-DDF) with bootstrap bias correction and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Using inputs of labor, public expenditure, and capital investment alongside desirable outputs—GRDP, HDI, public revenue and poverty reduction—and explicitly treating undesirable outcomes, the study uncovers three distinct phases of efficiency dynamics: an initial slowdown in 2019, resilience during the COVID-19 period, and a strong post-pandemic recovery by 2023. The average efficiency score rose from 0.843 in 2018 to 0.893 in 2023, with persistent bimodal distributions indicating structural heterogeneity. Spatial analysis confirms significant positive autocorrelation, with Global Moran’s I demonstrating that provincial efficiency is spatially dependent. Local Moran’s I identifies four configurations: High–High clusters in the Southeast and Mekong Delta reflecting agglomeration spillovers; Low–Low clusters in the Central Highlands signaling spatial poverty traps; High–Low efficiency islands achieving superior performance in weak regions; and Low–High provinces failing to capture neighboring spillovers. These findings highlight that infrastructure, institutions and human capital jointly condition efficiency through spatial mechanisms. COVID-19-induced disruptions reveal conditional spatial resilience. Policy implications emphasize differentiated, region-based coordination—strengthening High–High networks, addressing Low–Low constraints, enhancing absorptive capacity in Low–High provinces, and replicating High–Low success models—to foster balanced and inclusive growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41685-025-00416-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146026808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding user acceptance of electric motorcycles in Southeast asia: a study using the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology","authors":"Sumin Kang, Junseok Hwang, Jisoo Hur","doi":"10.1007/s41685-025-00402-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41685-025-00402-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As urbanization accelerates and environmental concerns intensify, electric motorcycles are gaining attention as an eco-friendly and sustainable mode of transportation. However, research on their acceptability and market penetration in Southeast Asia remains limited. This study analyzes the key factors that influence the adoption of electric motorcycles in major Southeast Asian countries. Using the Extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) as a framework, we examined the relationships between six key factors: performance expectancy, social influence, government intervention, environmental concern, performance risk, and individual innovativeness, and behavioral intention to adopt electric motorcycles. A survey was conducted, collecting 313 responses, and structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis were employed to assess moderating effects based on country, gender, education level, and motorcycle ownership. The results revealed that social influence and government intervention positively influenced adoption intention, while environmental concern had a negative impact. Additionally, the multi-group analysis demonstrated that the significance of adoption factors varied across gender, country, and education level, with differences also observed between motorcycle owners and non-owners. These findings highlight the importance of country-specific policy design and technological advancements to enhance the acceptability and market growth of electric motorcycles. By offering practical insights, this study contributes to expanding the electric motorcycle market and addressing environmental challenges in Southeast Asia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146026809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}