Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report最新文献

{"title":"Grain pricing and transportation: dynamics and changes in markets.","authors":"W. Wilson, Bruce Dahl","doi":"10.1002/agr.20277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.20277","url":null,"abstract":"There are important challenges to the grain handling and shipping industries. The study evaluated changes in marketing costs for the primary grain marketing functions and quantified measures of risk. The results indicate that 1) basis risk has increased; 2) all marketing costs have increased; 3) the increase in rail tariffs were less than those for the other modes; 4) car values, on average declined; 5) FSC’s had moderate changes in absolute terms; 6) handling margins have had fairly substantial increases, particularly at port; and 7) the riskiness in rail shipping costs are less than those of competing modes and functions. The regression model indicated the following variables had significant impacts on origin basis values: shipping costs, ocean rate spreads, outstanding export sales, handling industry concentration, measures of rail cars late, the ratio of supplies to storage capacity, futures prices and spreads (in addition to a few other minor impacts).","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117514802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Results of the North Dakota Land Valuation Model for the 2010 Agricultural Real Estate Assessment","authors":"Dwight G. Aakre, Ronald H. Haugen","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.98133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.98133","url":null,"abstract":"This report summarizes the 2010 results of the North Dakota Land Valuation Model. The model is used annually to estimate average land values by county, based on the value of production from cropland and non-cropland. The county land values developed from this procedure form the basis for the 2010 valuation of agricultural land for real estate tax assessment. The average all agricultural land value from this analysis is multiplied by the total acres of agricultural land on the county abstract to determine each county’s total agricultural land value for taxation purposes. The State Board of Equalization compares this value with the total value assessed to agricultural property in each county. Each county is required by state statute to assess a total value of agricultural property within 5 percent of this value. The average value per acre of all agricultural land in North Dakota increased by 10.6 percent from 2009 to 2010 based on the value of production. The value cropland increased by 11.5 percent and non-cropland value increased by 1.7 percent. The formula capitalization rate was below the minimum set by the State Legislature, therefore the minimum rate of 7.7 percent was used. The majority of the increase in values for cropland and all agricultural land was due to the increased value of crop production. This increase in value of production was due primarily to market price increases that occurred in 2007 and 2008. The change in crop revenue impacted land values from a negative 1.6 percent to an increase of 21.8 percent by county. The capitalization rate change increased land valuations by 3.8 percent in all counties; while the cost of production index decreased land values in all counties by 5.3 percent.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129484149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Trade Openness on Technical Efficiency in U.S. Agriculture","authors":"D. Miljković, Saleem Shaik","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.56334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.56334","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses the impact of trade openness on technical efficiency in the U.S. agricultural sector. The results indicate that trade protectionism illustrated with a decrease in the share of agricultural imports in agricultural GDP led to an increase in technical efficiency. A change in the share of agricultural exports in agricultural GDP had no impact on technical efficiency. These results are partially consistent with the premise of the new trade theory, but also seem to be driven by the intricacies of the agricultural sector and agricultural policy in the United States and internationally.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123904459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018","authors":"Richard D. Taylor, W. Koo, Andrew L. Swenson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.54246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.54246","url":null,"abstract":"Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123496510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2009 Outlook of the U.S. and World Wheat Industries, 2008-2018","authors":"W. Koo, Richard D. Taylor","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.54725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.54725","url":null,"abstract":"This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2008-2018 period using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to remain relatively healthy for the next ten years. World demand for both common and durum wheat are expected to remain strong. The price levels in 2007 and 2008 will not be maintained in 2009 and future because increased wheat and corn production in 2008 and reduced demand for corn for ethanol production will lower demand and increase supply. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of common wheat may grow faster than that of durum wheat.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"135 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124658787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Agricultural Input Costs and Their Impact on Net Farm Income","authors":"Richard D. Taylor, W. Koo","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.44821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.44821","url":null,"abstract":"The recent rapid increase in commodity prices is not an unique event. It has happened several times in the past. Commodity prices have always dropped, returning to a more normal level. Production costs, on the other hand, follow commodity prices up but do not follow them down. Net farm income has increased rapidly in most commodity sectors of agriculture. However, production costs have increased substantially during the past few years. Those cost increases will reduce net farm incomes in the future if commodity prices do not continue to increase.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130300662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2008 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2008-2017","authors":"Richard D. Taylor, W. Koo, Andrew L. Swenson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.42500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.42500","url":null,"abstract":"Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2017 is projected to be lower than in 2007. Low profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels, however, the final level is unknown. Two price level scenarios were analyzed. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit farms are expected to remain near the 0.50 level.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"195 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115651696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of Breakeven Farm-gate Switchgrass Prices in South Central North Dakota-Summary","authors":"D. A. Bangsund, E. DeVuyst, F. Leistritz","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.37845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.37845","url":null,"abstract":"Switchgrass, a warm-season perennial grass, native to the region, has received considerable interest for its potential role as a dedicated feedstock for cellulosic-based bio-fuels. This research examined the farm-gate price needed for switchgrass to provide per-acre net returns equal to those obtained from traditional crops in south central North Dakota. Future production costs for switchgrass and net returns from traditional crops were estimated for three soil productivity classes and also were developed to reflect the historical revenue and cost patterns associated with producers who are typically more or less profitable (i.e., average net return per acre) than regional averages. Prices were calculated using an annualized equivalent analysis of switchgrass production costs and net returns from traditional crops from 2008 through 2017. Switchgrass production costs ranged from just over $40 per ton on marginal soils to $34.80 per ton on highly productive soils. Breakeven switchgrass prices across the three soil productivity classes ranged from $47 per ton in the low productivity soils to $76 per ton in the most productive soils. Production costs for low-profit producers were estimated at $47 per ton, compared to the regional average of $37.50 per ton. Switchgrass production costs for the remaining profitability groups ranged from about $33.50 per ton to about $36.75 per ton. The breakeven farm-gate price for switchgrass ranged from $56 per ton for the two lowest profitability groups to over $94 per ton for the most profitable producers. A key economic criterion influencing the breakeven price for switchgrass will be the foregone net revenue from displaced traditional crops. On marginal soils, just under one-third of the breakeven price was derived from the level of foregone net returns from traditional crops; whereas, over 80 percent of the breakeven price was derived from the level of foregone net returns from traditional crops on the most productive soils. As net returns from traditional crops decreased, the more that breakeven switchgrass prices approached production costs for switchgrass. Under current conditions of high input costs, escalating transportation costs, and given the increases in net returns from traditional crops, switchgrass, as a feedstock to a cellulosic ethanol plant, will be more expensive than previously estimated.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114959280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Characteristics of North Dakota Farms 2004-2013","authors":"Andrew L. Swenson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.244566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.244566","url":null,"abstract":"The performance of over 500 North Dakota farms, 2004-2013, is summarized using 16 financial measures. Farms are categorized by geographic region, farm type, farm size, gross cash sales, farm tenure, net farm income, debt-to-asset, and age of farmer to analyze relationships between financial performance and farm characteristics. Five-year averages, 2008-2012, are also presented. In 2013, median and average acreage per farm was 1,865 and 2,581, respectively. Median and average cash farm revenue was $606,730 and $868,840, respectively. Over 70% of farms were crop farms and 60 percent of farms had gross sales exceeding $500,000. Median age of farm operators was 48. Median net farm income in 2013 was $90,629, the second lowest in the past 7 years, down from the 10 year high of $238,054 in 2012. Financial measures for 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008 and 2007 were much superior to those in other years for the 2004-2012 period. The Red River Valley and crop farms typically had stronger profitability, solvency, and repayment capacity from 2004 to 2013 than other regions and farm types, respectively. Exceptions were 2007, 2009 and 2013 when the north central region had the best regional performance and 2005 when the south central region and livestock farms had better performance. The 2013 median net farm income was $101,731 for crop farms and $39,827 for livestock farms. Farms with sales less than $500,000 were nearly three times as likely to have debt-to-asset higher than 70 percent as farms with sales greater than $500,000. Farms that own some crop land, but less than 40 percent of the land they operate were more likely to be crop farms, farm more acreage, have larger sales, and be more profitable. As expected, solvency and percent of crop land owned increased with farmer age. Median net farm income as a percent of gross revenue was 17.9 percent in 2013 and was the highest of the decade in 2012, 36.8 percent, and the lowest in 2009, 13.4 percent.","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115198288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Benefit-cost Analysis of the Waffle: Initial Assessment","authors":"D. A. Bangsund, E. DeVuyst, F. Leistritz","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.42216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.42216","url":null,"abstract":"An option to mitigating flood damages in the Red River Basin is the concept of using hundreds or thousands of ‘micro-basin’ storage areas comprised of roads and adjacent lands to retain a sufficient volume of water over a reasonable period in the spring to lower the flood crest heights on streams and rivers throughout the basin. This concept has been referred to as the Waffle. The present value of costs and benefits of implementing, maintaining, and operating the Waffle were estimated for a 50-year period. Costs included land enrollment expenses, landowner payments, infrastructure modifications and installations, and maintenance and administrative overhead. Data relating river crest heights with probability of flood occurrence and expected damages to residential and commercial properties and public infrastructure provided the basis for estimating benefits of the Waffle. The relationships between river crest heights and flood damages were adjusted for future population change and change in the value of real property over the 50-year period. Benefits were derived from changes in crest heights and flood event probabilities due to the Waffle influencing the expected river crest heights for various flood events, and reflected the difference between flood damage with and without the Waffle in four urban areas in the Basin. The analysis used numerous scenarios that reflected different expectations in Waffle size, cost, water storage capacity, crest height reductions, and future population. The combination of those situations produced 108 separate estimates of the net benefits of the Waffle. Net benefits were positive in 106 of the 108 scenarios evaluated. The magnitude of net benefits over the 50-year period were substantial: 85 percent of the scenarios evaluated resulted in over $300 million in net benefits and nearly half of the combinations had net benefits in excess of $500 million. The results from two alternative analyses showed that the Waffle produced substantial net benefits when only used for relatively large floods (greater than 100-year events) and also revealed that the Waffle is not economically sensitive to the inclusion or absence of high-frequency flood damages from Fargo/Moorhead. Overall, the economic feasibility of the Waffle, given the limited scope of benefits included in the study, was almost entirely determined by mitigated flood damages from Fargo/Moorhead. Without mitigated flood damages from Fargo/Moorhead, results from this study suggest the Waffle would only be economically in a limited number of situations (11 of 108 possibilities) if implemented on a basin-wide scale. Recent improvements and additions to structural flood protection in Wahpeton/Breckenridge and Grand Forks/East Grand Forks eliminate the potential to mitigate flood damages from all but the largest flood events. The positive results from this study suggest that dedicating additional resources to solving or answering many of the remaining issues with the Waffl","PeriodicalId":356449,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133430368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}