AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)最新文献

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Economic Implications of Nonlinear Pricing Kernels 非线性定价核的经济含义
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1107997
Caio Almeida, René Garcia
{"title":"Economic Implications of Nonlinear Pricing Kernels","authors":"Caio Almeida, René Garcia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1107997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1107997","url":null,"abstract":"Based on a family of discrepancy functions, we derive nonparametric stochastic discount factor bounds that naturally generalize variance, entropy, and higher-moment bounds. These bounds are especially useful to identify how parameters affect pricing kernel dispersion in asset pricing models. In particular, they allow us to distinguish between models where dispersion comes mainly from skewness from models where kurtosis is the primary source of dispersion. We analyze the admissibility of disaster, disappointment aversion, and long-run risk models with respect to these bounds. This paper was accepted by Jerome Detemple, finance.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122426225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 52
Creditor Coordination, Liquidation Timing, and Debt Valuation 债权人协调、清算时间和债务估值
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2010-04-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0022109011000330
Max Bruche
{"title":"Creditor Coordination, Liquidation Timing, and Debt Valuation","authors":"Max Bruche","doi":"10.1017/S0022109011000330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109011000330","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives closed-form solutions for values of debt and equity in a continuous-time structural model in which the demands of creditors to be repaid cause a firm to be put into bankruptcy. This allows discussion of the effect of creditor coordination in recovering money on the values of debt, equity, and the firm, as well as on optimal capital structure. The effects of features of bankruptcy codes that prevent coordination failures between creditors, such as automatic stays and preference law, are also considered. The model suggests that such features, while preventing coordination failures, can decrease welfare.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131278510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure 货币政策变动与期限结构
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2009-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1106467
Andrew Ang, Jean Boivin, S. Dong, Rudy Loo-Kung
{"title":"Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure","authors":"Andrew Ang, Jean Boivin, S. Dong, Rudy Loo-Kung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1106467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1106467","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the effect of shifts in monetary policy using the term structure of interest rates. In our no-arbitrage model, the short rate follows a version of the Taylor (1993) rule where the coefficients on the output gap and inflation vary over time. The monetary policy loading on the output gap has averaged around 0.4 and has not changed very much over time. The overall response of the yield curve to output gap components is relatively small. In contrast, the inflation loading has changed substantially over the last 50 years and ranges from close to zero in 2003 to a high of 2.4 in 1983. Long-term bonds are sensitive to inflation policy shifts with increases in inflation loadings leading to higher short rates and widening yield spreads.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"265 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116179091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 163
Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation 动态均值方差资产配置
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.965926
Suleyman Basak, G. Chabakauri
{"title":"Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation","authors":"Suleyman Basak, G. Chabakauri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.965926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.965926","url":null,"abstract":"Mean-variance criteria remain prevalent in multi-period problems, and yet not much is known about their dynamically optimal policies. We provide a fully analytical characterization of the optimal dynamic mean-variance portfolios within a general incomplete-market economy, and recover a simple structure that also inherits several conventional properties of static models. We also identify a probability measure that incorporates intertemporal hedging demands and facilitates much tractability in the explicit computation of portfolios. We solve the problem by explicitly recognizing the time-inconsistency of the mean-variance criterion and deriving a recursive representation for it, which makes dynamic programming applicable. We further show that our time-consistent solution is generically different from the pre-commitment solutions in the extant literature, which maximize the mean-variance criterion at an initial date and which the investor commits to follow despite incentives to deviate. We illustrate the usefulness of our analysis by explicitly computing dynamic mean-variance portfolios under various stochastic investment opportunities in a straightforward way, which does not involve solving a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman differential equation. A calibration exercise shows that the mean-variance hedging demands may comprise a significant fraction of the investor's total risky asset demand.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125262018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 535
What Segments Equity Markets? 股票市场有哪些细分?
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1108156
G. Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, C. Lundblad, Stephan Siegel
{"title":"What Segments Equity Markets?","authors":"G. Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, C. Lundblad, Stephan Siegel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1108156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1108156","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new, valuation-based measure of world equity market segmentation. While we observe decreased levels of segmentation in many countries, the level of segmentation remains significant in emerging markets. We characterize the factors that account for variation in market segmentation both through time as well as across countries. Both a country's regulation with respect to foreign capital flows and certain nonregulatory factors are important. In particular, we identify a country's political risk profile and its stock market development as two additional local segmentation factors as well as the U.S. corporate credit spread as a global segmentation factor. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134044625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 498
Bridge Building in Venture Capital-Backed Acquisitions 风险资本支持收购中的桥梁建设
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2009-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1102504
Paul A. Gompers, Yuhai Xuan
{"title":"Bridge Building in Venture Capital-Backed Acquisitions","authors":"Paul A. Gompers, Yuhai Xuan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1102504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1102504","url":null,"abstract":"We study the role of common venture capital investors in alleviating asymmetric information between public acquirers and private venture capital-backed targets. We find that acquisition announcement returns are more positive for acquisitions in which both the target and the acquirer are financed by the same venture capital firm. Similarly, having a common investor increases the likelihood that a transaction will be all equity-financed and the likelihood that an acquisition will take place. Our results suggest that common venture capital investors can form a bridge between acquiring and target firms that reduces asymmetric information associated with the transaction for both parties.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115385623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 50
Informed Trading Before Analyst Downgrades: Evidence from Short Sellers 分析师下调评级前的知情交易:来自卖空者的证据
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2008-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1108162
Stephen E. Christophe, Michael G. Ferri, Jim Hsieh
{"title":"Informed Trading Before Analyst Downgrades: Evidence from Short Sellers","authors":"Stephen E. Christophe, Michael G. Ferri, Jim Hsieh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1108162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1108162","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies short-selling prior to the release of analyst downgrades in a sample of 670 downgrades of Nasdaq stocks between 2000 and 2001. We find abnormal levels of short-selling in the three days before downgrades are publicly announced. Further, we show that this pre-announcement abnormal short-selling is significantly related to the subsequent share price reaction to the downgrade, and especially so for downgrades that prompt the most substantial price declines. Our findings are robust to various controls that might also affect short-selling such as pre-announcement momentum, three-day pre-announcement returns, and announcement-day share price. In addition, the results are independent of scheduled earnings announcements, analyst herding, and non-routine events near downgrades. Further evidence suggests that tipping is more consistent with the data than the prediction explanation which posits that short sellers successfully predict downgrades on the basis of public information about firms' financial health. Finally, we present evidence that downgraded stocks with high abnormal short-selling perform poorly over the subsequent six months by comparison with those with low abnormal short-selling. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that short sellers are informed traders and exploit profitable opportunities provided by downgrade announcements.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114984419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 391
What Does Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns? 个人期权波动率的假笑告诉我们关于未来股票回报的什么?
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2008-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1107464
Xiaoyan Zhang, R. Zhao, Yuhang Xing
{"title":"What Does Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?","authors":"Xiaoyan Zhang, R. Zhao, Yuhang Xing","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1107464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1107464","url":null,"abstract":"The shape of the volatility smirk has significant cross-sectional predictive power for future equity returns. Stocks exhibiting the steepest smirks in their traded options underperform stocks with the least pronounced volatility smirks in their options by 10.9% per year on a risk-adjusted basis. This predictability persists for at least 6 months, and firms with the steepest volatility smirks are those experiencing the worst earnings shocks in the following quarter. The results are consistent with the notion that informed traders with negative news prefer to trade out-of-the-money put options, and that the equity market is slow in incorporating the information embedded in volatility smirks.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121820305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 525
Unique Factors 独特的因素
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.972229
Yiyu Shen, Yexiao Xu
{"title":"Unique Factors","authors":"Yiyu Shen, Yexiao Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.972229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.972229","url":null,"abstract":"It is well known that 70% of individual stocks' returns are classified as idiosyncratic returns under a conventional asset pricing model. In this study, we raise an important question as to whether majority return variations are truly influenced by idiosyncratic risks that at most affect several stocks from an empirical perspective. In other words, we explore a possible middle ground between common risk factors that influence almost all stocks and idiosyncratic risks by proposing unique factors that may only affect certain groups of stocks. In particular, we present a simple iterative approach both to extract unique factors from individual stock returns and to group stocks simultaneously. Comparing with industry groupings, this approach not only allows for a parsimonious group structure but also ensures that unique factors are indeed unique to individual groups. With the deterioration in the explanatory power of common factors such as the Fama and French factors in recent years, we find that unique factors not only are pervasive within their groups but also have played an increasingly important role in explaining individual stock returns over the past forty years. As an example, a multifactor model with two common factors and two unique factors not only provides a 10% extra explanatory power over other popular models but also outperforms the Fama and French model in out-of-sample tests. Therefore, the simple structure of unique factor model may hold the key to improve the performance of an asset pricing model in general.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124568617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The CAPM with Endogenous Beliefs 具有内生信念的CAPM
AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive) Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1102263
H. Adriaens, B. Donkers, B. Melenberg
{"title":"The CAPM with Endogenous Beliefs","authors":"H. Adriaens, B. Donkers, B. Melenberg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1102263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1102263","url":null,"abstract":"The CAPM is one of the basic models in finance, combining one-period ahead exogenously given (rational) expectations and mean-variance preferences. This combination results in implications that are heavily criticized, both empirically and theoretically, resulting in a rejection of mean-variance preferences. In this paper we consider the CAPM as an equilibrium model of interacting mean-variance investors where the investors' beliefs are not assumed to be given exogenously, but are determined endogenously, as part of the CAPM equilibrium. We postulate that according to these beliefs arbitrage opportunities are excluded and that these beliefs are rational, i.e., in line with the CAPM equilibrium, so that the standard way of testing the CAPM no longer applies. Instead, we derive clear one-period ahead predictions. When confronting such predictions with actual data, the one-factor CAPM performs quite well, much better than the traditional, alternative multi-factor models, when the comparable predictions according to these models are confronted with actual data.","PeriodicalId":355236,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings (Archive)","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115288620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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