{"title":"Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles","authors":"Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, R. Minetti","doi":"10.1086/669586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/669586","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the international propagation of sovereign debt default. We posit a two-country economy where capital constrained banks grant loans to firms and invest in bonds issued by the domestic and the foreign government. The model economy is calibrated to data from Europe, with the two countries representing the Periphery (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and the Core, respectively. Large contractionary shocks in the Periphery trigger sovereign default. We find sizable spillover effects of default from Periphery to the Core through a drop in the volume of credit extended by the banking sector.","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133758380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting during the Financial Crisis","authors":"T. Molodtsova, David H. Papell","doi":"10.1086/669584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/669584","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. While all Taylor rule specifications outperform the random walk with forecasts ending between 2007:Q1 and 2008:Q2, only the specification with both estimated coefficients and the unemployment gap consistently outperforms the random walk from 2007:Q1 through 2012:Q1. Several Taylor rule models that are augmented with credit spreads or financial condition indexes outperform the original Taylor rule models. The performance of the Taylor rule models is superior to the interest rate differentials, monetary, and purchasing power parity models.","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124570507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicolas Berman, José De Sousa, Philippe Martin, T. Mayer
{"title":"Time to Ship during Financial Crises","authors":"Nicolas Berman, José De Sousa, Philippe Martin, T. Mayer","doi":"10.1086/669587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/669587","url":null,"abstract":"We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122040758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"K. West","doi":"10.1086/663667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663667","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132547516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"L. R. Ngai","doi":"10.1086/663654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663654","url":null,"abstract":"978-0-226-26034-1/2012/2011-0011$10.00 Spolare and Wacziarg (2009) construct a measure of genetic distance to proxy differences in customs, norms, and other ethnic traits. They establish a statistically signifi cant empirical relationship between genetic distance and crosscountry income differences. The current paper aims to provide a channel for this relationship through differences in adoption of technologies across countries. It estimates an empirical relationship between genetic distance and adoption of technologies across countries, where both measures are relative to a frontier country. More specifi cally, this is done by using data on genetic distance they used in their previous paper, and two data sets on technology adoption for the year 1500 and 2000. The frontier is the United Kingdom for the year 1500 and the United States for the year 2000. For the year 2000, the paper relates relative genetic distance to three layers of technology adoption: (1) 33 specifi c technologies in the CrossCountry Historical Adoption of Technology (CHAT) and 9 specifi c technologies in Comin, Easterly, and Gong (2010) (hereafter Comin et al.); (2) 4 sectors: agriculture, industry, communication, and transportation; and (3) Aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). I have two sets of comments. The fi rst concerns the data and the methodology on estimating the relationship of adoption of specifi c technologies and genetic distance. The second is about aggregating the adoption of specifi c technologies into sectoral and aggregate economy level.","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122856324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"Allan Drazen","doi":"10.1086/663662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663662","url":null,"abstract":"This is an extremely nice paper: rich, original, inventive, carefully done, and fascinating. In short, it is just what you would expect from Gilles. There is far too much to discuss and too little to criticize. What can a discussant do in such a situation? I will try to do three things: explain some basic issues, ask some conceptual questions, and suggest some directions of research. The very general, and important, issue on which this paper is based is the use of incorrect models of the economy. There are three basic questions here. First, how can belief in “incorrect” ideas and models persist? For example, many people believe in UFOs or ESP in spite of what would seem to many signifi cant evidence to the contrary. Second, how do people arrive at incorrect beliefs? This is the more novel question the paper looks at, and the answer given is that they listen to economists (or more generally, experts)! This leads to a third question, also addressed in this paper: namely, why do and how much can economists mislead? The perhaps obvious answer to the fi rst part of the question is that experts have their own ideological agendas and can use the belief by policymakers and the public in their expertise to manipulate policy choices. However, policymakers and the public can observe economic outcomes—that is, in a sense they have sources of information independent of experts, which puts a partial check on what experts can say and still maintain their credibility. Thus, they are constrained in how much they can mislead. These are separate, though related, questions. In order to evaluate","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134388416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"L. Tesar","doi":"10.1086/663655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663655","url":null,"abstract":"logical relatedness of populations) and the rate of technology adoption. The underlying motivation is the idea that populations that are more closely related genealogically will share a variety of traits and customs; similarity in those traits will make it easier to share technology and transmit ideas. The specifi c test is to see whether there is an econometrically robust link between genetic distance between populations— measured relative to the lead country—and distance to the technology frontier. The authors fi nd that this relationship exists and that genetic distance explains more of the variation in technological differences between countries than does a measure of geographical distance between countries. This is a tantalizing result: populations that are similar will fi nd it easier to share ideas and therefore will share similar technologies. Conversely, large differences across populations will pose a barrier to the transmission of technology. Like many tantalizing things, however, this result left me craving more. Following is a list of things I would have liked the paper to develop more fully:","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"33 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131028429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"A. Razin","doi":"10.1086/663659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663659","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131250165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the NBER","authors":"","doi":"10.1086/667620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/667620","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115522986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment","authors":"Richard Clarida","doi":"10.1086/663668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/663668","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127791806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
