Economic Research Report最新文献

Factors Contributing to Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices and Trade for the United States and the World 影响美国和世界农产品价格和贸易变化的因素

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2020-01-15 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.301181

Getachew Nigatu, Flavius Badau, R. Seeley, J. Hansen

{"title":"Factors Contributing to Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices and Trade for the United States and the World","authors":"Getachew Nigatu, Flavius Badau, R. Seeley, J. Hansen","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.301181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.301181","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural commodity prices play an important role in the production decisions of farmers and ranchers, including planted/harvested acreage of crops or inventory of livestock and, thus, the supply of agricultural commodities. This report examines changes in global demand and supply factors that contributed to agricultural commodity price declines during 2014-19 and changes that contributed to the rising trend in prices that peaked in 2007/08 and 2011/12. Additionally, the report projects how global commodity prices and trade could change out to 2021/22 given various assumptions on key factors, such as the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and agricultural production across countries. Information on these factors and their market impacts can inform and enhance public and private decision making on issues relating to agricultural markets. Model results suggest that if GDP growth slows in developing and emerging economies by 2.3 percentage points annually (the average annual rate of decline experienced in these countries over 2007-09), commodity prices would decrease on average by 4 percent per year over 2018/19 to 2021/22. However, the volume of global commodity trade would remain relatively stable. Second, if crop production by major producing countries (including the United States) were to decline by 3 percentage points, commodity prices are projected to rise by an average of 12 percent per year over 2018/19 to 2021/22. The volume of global commodity trade is projected to fall by an average of 2 percent per year for this scenario. Third, if U.S. crop production increases by an average of 1 percentage point, average commodity prices decline by 2 percent, and the volume of global commodity trade increases by an average of less than 1 percent over 2018/19 to 2021/22.","PeriodicalId":348588,"journal":{"name":"Economic Research Report","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130886922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Climate Change and Agricultural Risk Management Into the 21st Century 21世纪气候变化与农业风险管理

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.292268

A. Crane-Droesch, E. Marshall, Stephanie D. Rosch, A. Riddle, J. Cooper, S. Wallander

{"title":"Climate Change and Agricultural Risk Management Into the 21st Century","authors":"A. Crane-Droesch, E. Marshall, Stephanie D. Rosch, A. Riddle, J. Cooper, S. Wallander","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.292268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.292268","url":null,"abstract":"Programs that help farmers manage risk are a major component of the Federal Government’s support to rural America. Changes to this risk—and thus to the Government’s fiscal exposure— are expected as weather averages and extremes change over the coming decades. This study uses a combination of statistical and economic modeling techniques to explore the mechanisms by which climate change could affect the cost of the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) to the Federal Government, which accounts for approximately half of Government expenditures on agricultural risk management. Our approach is to compare scenarios of the future that differ only in terms of climate. Using weather scenarios for 2060-99 from general circulation models, we project decreases in corn and soybean yields and mixed changes to winter wheat yields, compared to a baseline scenario in which climate is identical to that of the past three decades. We use an economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector to estimate how projected yield changes may induce farmers to change what and where they plant, and the resulting impacts on production and output prices. These ingredients allow us to explore drivers of change in the cost of the FCIP’s Revenue Protection program, which is used as a heuristic for potential farm safety net programs that could exist in the future. Differences between the scenarios are driven by increasing prices for the three crops studied, caused by relatively lower production in the presence of inelastic demand, as well as by changing volatility in both yields and prices.","PeriodicalId":348588,"journal":{"name":"Economic Research Report","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126729480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Reducing Nutrient Losses From Cropland in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin: Cost Efficiency and Regional Distribution 减少密西西比河/阿查法拉亚河流域农田的养分损失:成本效率和区域分布

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277567

E. Marshall, M. Aillery, M. Ribaudo, N. Key, S. Sneeringer, L. Hansen, S. Malcolm, A. Riddle

{"title":"Reducing Nutrient Losses From Cropland in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin: Cost Efficiency and Regional Distribution","authors":"E. Marshall, M. Aillery, M. Ribaudo, N. Key, S. Sneeringer, L. Hansen, S. Malcolm, A. Riddle","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.277567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.277567","url":null,"abstract":"Every summer, a large area forms in the northern Gulf of Mexico where dissolved oxygen becomes too low for many aquatic species to survive. This “hypoxic zone” is fueled by nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) runoff from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB), most of which comes from agriculture. This analysis used the ERS Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model and data from the USDA Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to assess the most cost-effective way of achieving a 45-percent reduction in cropland nutrient loads to the Gulf. Strategies involve adoption of management practices that reduce nutrient loss from fields to water resources, off-field practices for intercepting nutrients, retirement of marginal cropland, and other changes in crop management. Results suggest that proximity to the Gulf was a major factor in the location of nutrient-reduction efforts when reducing Gulf hypoxia was the only goal. When local as well as Gulf nutrient-reduction targets are applied, nutrient-reduction efforts are spread more evenly across the MARB. Adopting nutrient management practices, restoring wetlands, and retiring cropland to meet water quality goals also increased commodity prices, resulting in more intensive production outside the MARB and increased nutrient and sediment loadings to water in other watersheds.","PeriodicalId":348588,"journal":{"name":"Economic Research Report","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129580369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Characteristics of School Districts Offering Free School Meals to All Students Through the Community Eligibility Provision of the National School Lunch Program 通过国家学校午餐计划的社区资格规定向所有学生提供免费学校膳食的学区的特点

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.276219

S. Rogus, J. Guthrie, K. Ralston

{"title":"Characteristics of School Districts Offering Free School Meals to All Students Through the Community Eligibility Provision of the National School Lunch Program","authors":"S. Rogus, J. Guthrie, K. Ralston","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.276219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.276219","url":null,"abstract":"The Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) of the National School Lunch Program allows high-poverty schools to provide USDA school meals at no charge to all of their students. USDA reimbursement for meals is simplified by making use of routinely collected administrative data, such as participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly food stamps) or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), rather than collecting school meal applications. Schools and districts with at least 40 percent of enrolled students identified as participating in these assistance programs through the administrative data—also known as the Identified Student Percentage, or ISP—are eligible to participate in the CEP. This report examines the characteristics of school districts that participated in the CEP in school year 2015-16—with participation defined as CEP being implemented in at least one eligible school in the district—using administrative data from USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service, the National Center for Education Statistics, and State education agencies, where available. The highest school-level ISP in the district was found to be significantly associated with CEP participation, holding other factors constant, although the association varied for different sized districts. Participation also varied significantly by region and length of time since CEP became available.","PeriodicalId":348588,"journal":{"name":"Economic Research Report","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128263883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Federal Risk Management Tools for Agricultural Producers: An Overview 农业生产者的联邦风险管理工具:综述

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276229

Mesbah J. Motamed, Ashley Hungerford, Stephanie D. Rosch, Erik J. O'Donoghue, Matthew J MacLachlan, G. Astill, J. Cessna, J. Cooper

{"title":"Federal Risk Management Tools for Agricultural Producers: An Overview","authors":"Mesbah J. Motamed, Ashley Hungerford, Stephanie D. Rosch, Erik J. O'Donoghue, Matthew J MacLachlan, G. Astill, J. Cessna, J. Cooper","doi":"10.22004/ag.econ.276229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.276229","url":null,"abstract":"This report describes the current landscape of Federal risk management policies, including the Agricultural Act of 2014, and analyzes the outcomes and interactions of these programs. Despite their common objective of risk reduction, Federal programs differ in their payment mechanisms and their impacts on producer revenue, and uptake has varied significantly across programs and crops. Area-loss insurance programs, such as the Stacked Income Protection Plan and Supplemental Coverage Option, received low enrollments, while applications to the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program witnessed sizable growth. Differences in program enrollment and program provisions across crops led the bulk of Agriculture Risk Coverage payments to go to producers with corn and soybean base acres, while most Price Loss Coverage payments went to rice, peanuts, and wheat base acres. Half of dairy producers enrolled in the Margin Protection Program for Dairy, but large national margins led to few payments in 2015 and 2016. In contrast, changes in program design led the Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy program to make significantly more indemnity payments per policy. Outside of dairy, the Livestock Forage Program remains the largest livestock support program, though outlays have fallen in recent years.","PeriodicalId":348588,"journal":{"name":"Economic Research Report","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114138795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Farmland Values, Land Ownership, and Returns to Farmland, 2000-2016 2000-2016年，耕地价值、土地所有权和耕地回报

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.276249

Christopher B. Burns, N. Key, Sarah A. Tulman, A. Borchers, Jeremy G. Weber

引用次数: 17

Employment Spillover Effects of Rural Inpatient Healthcare Facilities 农村住院医疗机构的就业溢出效应

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.266290

Cristina Miller, J. Pender, T. Hertz

引用次数: 2

Innovation in the Rural Nonfarm Economy: Its Effect on Job and Earnings Growth, 2010-2014 农村非农经济创新:对就业和收入增长的影响(2010-2014

Economic Research Report Pub Date : 2017-09-19 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.264596

Timothy R. Wojan, T. Parker