SRPN: Oil (Topic)最新文献

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Understanding Risks Associated with Offshore Hydrocarbon Development 了解海上油气开发的相关风险
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-38595-7_7
Kamrul Hossain, Timo Koivurova, Gerald Zojer
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引用次数: 8
Fundamentals, Non‐Fundamentals and the Oil Price Changes in 2007–2009 and 2014–2015 2007-2009年和2014-2015年的基本面、非基本面和油价变化
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12071
Afshin Javan, C. Vallejo
{"title":"Fundamentals, Non‐Fundamentals and the Oil Price Changes in 2007–2009 and 2014–2015","authors":"Afshin Javan, C. Vallejo","doi":"10.1111/opec.12071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12071","url":null,"abstract":"The fast increase in oil prices in the past 15 years and the spectacular fall in 2008 and in 2014 has led to the rethinking of supply and demand as the only determinant price. It has been observed in the last decade that large financial institutions, hedge funds, index funds and other investment funds invest billions of dollars in the futures market benefiting from the changes in oil prices. We considered the net long position of each trader category in the New York Mercantile Exchange to estimate, through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the impact of each category on oil price and on volatility. Similarly, we also consider quarterly world oil demand, supply, inventories and industrial production from 1993 and 2015. The results show that fundamental variables have a strong and long‐lasting relationship with oil price. Unlike the fundamental variables, the non‐fundamental variables very quickly became stable and react in a different way when the prices of oil rise and fall. The results show that the main factor for the increase of the price in 2008 was the higher than expected demand. For the 2014 decline the VECM shows that supply is the main force behind it. The non‐fundamental variables together can explain almost 11 per cent of the variations of the price in 2008–2009. However, for the 2014–2015 period, the non‐fundamental combined explained only 5 per cent. The non‐fundamental have low share in the changes in oil price despite having a strong effect on volatility.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131095697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Effect of Plummeting Oil Prices in the Energy Industry: A Study on Exploration, Drilling and Pipeline Projects 石油价格暴跌对能源行业的影响:基于勘探、钻井和管道项目的研究
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2951870
Katerina Roumeliotis
{"title":"The Effect of Plummeting Oil Prices in the Energy Industry: A Study on Exploration, Drilling and Pipeline Projects","authors":"Katerina Roumeliotis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2951870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2951870","url":null,"abstract":"The energy industry, or energy alone, is a crucial component in our daily lives as humans, but also for our global economy which is generally energy-reliant. Specifically oil, has played an important role in global economies but also for countries’ economies separately and has at times greatly influenced geopolitical dynamics. For some countries, oil-exporting countries for example, oil may comprise the main source of income and for others it may constitute a vital component for a healthy market. Whatever the case, oil has is key for economies and has the potential to significantly influence political dynamics. During the past two years, oil prices have witnessed record lows which were unseen since the last oil crisis in 1986. Although low oil prices was have been largely foreseeable, the extent to which they dropped was something the world was unprepared for. It not only has jeopardized whole economies, but also the positions of many key players in the oil industry, namely explorers, driller and transporters. The causes of what this paper will name the ‘oil crisis’ have been the subject matter of much speculation. It is fair to say that such extreme fluctuations of any commodity are rarely the result of one cause alone, but rather due to a chain of causes and subsequent reactions. In our case, there are three main, but not sole, identifiable factors that have a direct link to the recent record slum in oil prices. These are: the excess supply in what is an oversaturated market, the decrease in demand of oil and the increase of the U.S. dollar (USD) value.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126899471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robustness of Firm-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Exploration Investments: Implications from Egyptian Oil & Gas Industry 勘探投资的公司特定和宏观经济决定因素的稳健性:来自埃及石油和天然气行业的影响
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-02-20 DOI: 10.1108/JEAS-02-2016-0004
T. Eldomiaty, I. Lotfy, Mohamed Rashwan, Mohamed Bahaa El Din
{"title":"Robustness of Firm-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Exploration Investments: Implications from Egyptian Oil & Gas Industry","authors":"T. Eldomiaty, I. Lotfy, Mohamed Rashwan, Mohamed Bahaa El Din","doi":"10.1108/JEAS-02-2016-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-02-2016-0004","url":null,"abstract":"The uncertainty that surrounds Oil and Gas exploration environments call for an examination at different angles. In terms of robustness, this study focuses on three performance measurements: (a) the amount of exploration investments, (b) the growth rate of exploration investments and (c) the Value at Risk (VaR) of exploration investments.The study utilizes the properties of discriminant analysis for deriving Z-score models that can be used for monitoring firms’ performance. A co-integration analysis is utilized as well in order to examine the level of co-integration between predictors of each performance measure. The sample includes annual data for forty one firms (local and multinational) working in the Oil and Gas industry in Egypt for the period 2009-2014.The results show that (a) amount and growth of exploration investment are quite robust performance measures in the Oil and Gas industry, (b) VaR of exploration investment is sporadic as it firm-specific, (c) GDP, Capital expenditure and operating expenditure are quite relevant for managing and monitoring growth of exploration investments.The study offers robust evidence that amount and growth of exploration investment are quire relevant firm performance in the Oil and Gas Industry.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116793062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Modelling and Forecasting Rig Rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf 挪威大陆架钻机费率的建模和预测
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2917782
T. Skjerpen, Halvor B. Storrøsten, K. E. Rosendahl, Petter Osmundsen
{"title":"Modelling and Forecasting Rig Rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf","authors":"T. Skjerpen, Halvor B. Storrøsten, K. E. Rosendahl, Petter Osmundsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2917782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2917782","url":null,"abstract":"Knowledge about rig markets is crucial for understanding the global oil market. In this paper we first develop a simple bargaining model for rig markets. Then we examine empirically the most important drivers for rig rate formation of floaters operating at the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the period 1991q4 to 2013q4. We use reduced form time series models with two equations and report conditional point and bootstrapped interval forecasts for rig rates and capacity utilization. We then consider two alternative simulations to examine how the oil price and remaining petroleum reserves influence rig rate formation of floaters. In the first alternative simulation we assume a relatively high crude oil price equal to 100 USD (2010) per barrel for the entire forecast period, whereas the reference case features the actual oil price with extrapolated values for the last quarters in the forecast period. According to our results, the rig rates will be about 34 percent higher in 2016q4 with the higher oil price. In the second alternative simulation we explore the effects of opening the Barents Sea and areas around Jan Mayen for petroleum activity. This contributes to dampening the fall in the rig rates and capacity utilization over the last part of the forecast period.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132680615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Forced Subordinations of Liens to Leases: Is Texas Property Code Chapter 66 an Unconstitutionally Retroactive Law? 留置权对租赁的强制从属:德州财产法第66章是否具有违宪追溯效力?
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2710208
Michael P. Vargo
{"title":"Forced Subordinations of Liens to Leases: Is Texas Property Code Chapter 66 an Unconstitutionally Retroactive Law?","authors":"Michael P. Vargo","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2710208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2710208","url":null,"abstract":"In 2015, the Texas Legislature enacted a law which benefits oil and gas producers, but retroactively affects (and potentially harms) lenders. Chapter 66 of the Texas Property Code alters traditional expectations regarding the effects of foreclosures on oil and gas leases. Due to its impact on previously executed mortgages, the law could be deemed unconstitutional.Lenders that issue security interests often rely on foreclosure sales or future transactions to recover the balance of an unpaid obligation. Historically, a foreclosure terminated subsequently executed, or “junior,” encumbrances (such as mineral leases) that covered mortgaged property. Purchasers, who would then acquire a greater interest in the property, would ideally offer a higher price for it. In turn, lenders had a greater possibility of recovering their initial loan. However, as of January 1, 2016, Chapter 66 protects junior leases from termination by foreclosure, and retroactively applies to mortgages that were issued years earlier. Unfortunately, due to the recently volatile energy market, some junior leases may significantly decrease property values. Therefore, lenders that issued mortgages with the expectation that foreclosures would remove junior leases may be less likely to recoup their outstanding debt. This Article describes the nature of Chapter 66, and explores Texas jurisprudence surrounding retroactive laws. It then analyzes the statute under the Supreme Court of Texas’s 2010 Robinson v. Crown Cork & Seal decision, and explains how a Texas court may find that Chapter 66 is unconstitutionally retroactive.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125104490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Primer on Alberta's Oil Sands Royalties 阿尔伯塔省油砂特许权使用费入门
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-12-21 DOI: 10.11575/SPPP.V8I0.42552
S. Dobson
{"title":"A Primer on Alberta's Oil Sands Royalties","authors":"S. Dobson","doi":"10.11575/SPPP.V8I0.42552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11575/SPPP.V8I0.42552","url":null,"abstract":"Fulfilling its campaign promise, the new NDP government announced a review of Alberta’s royalty framework in June 2015. The province receives royalty revenue from three main sources – natural gas, crude oil, and oil sands. Since the 2009-10 fiscal year the largest contributor to Alberta’s royalty revenues has been the oil sands. If you want a sense of how important oil sands royalties have been for Alberta’s finances, consider this: In the 2014–15 fiscal year, the government collected just over $5 billion from oil sands royalties. These royalties covered over 10 per cent of the province’s operational expenses of $48.6 billion in the same fiscal year. Over the last six fiscal years the oil sands have contributed an average of 10 per cent of revenues to provincial coffers. This makes oil sands royalties the fourth largest contributor behind personal income taxes (23 per cent), federal transfers (13 per cent) and corporate income taxes (11 per cent). But how many Albertans really understand how the royalty system works? What do we mean when we say “royalty”? How does the Alberta Government calculate royalties on oil sands producers? If the system is going to change, it’s important that Albertans understand how the current system works. That is what this paper is designed to do. For Albertans to properly judge the impact of new policy, they need a solid understanding of the current policy environment. We all know that oil prices have dropped and oil sands producers are losing profitability. As such, changes to the royalty system could have a deep and profound impact on the sector. Here are some of the issues this primer will study: • Pre-payout projects vs. post-payout projects, in other words, the classification of projects for royalty purposes based on whether the cumulative costs of a project exceed its cumulative revenues • Monthly payment of royalties vs. annual payment • Understanding the unit price of bitumen and how that price is applied • Gross vs. net revenues and the application of royalties • How the price of oil and the exchange rate between Canadian and U.S. dollars impact royalties • The historical and forecast contribution of oil sands royalties to Alberta’s finances Needless to say, a primer like this should be required reading for policymakers. It should also be required reading, however, for any Albertan who cares about the long-term benefit of the oil sands to Alberta’s revenue, and our financial future as a province.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125113919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Determinants of Trade Balance in Vietnam During the Period 1989-2013 1989-2013年越南贸易平衡的决定因素
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2926375
Nhat Nguyen
{"title":"Determinants of Trade Balance in Vietnam During the Period 1989-2013","authors":"Nhat Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2926375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2926375","url":null,"abstract":"Viet Nam has faced with trade deficits for a long time since opening the economy in 1986 until 2012. Improving trade balance is one of the main objectives of Vietnam’s Government. This study’s objective is to analyse main factors that affect to trade balance in Vietnam from 1989 to 2013. The examined factors are Gross domestic product (GDP), Foreign direct investment (FDI), Government expenditure (GEXP), Household expenditure (HEXP), Oil price (OIL) and Industrial growth rate (INDGR). The study uses annual data from 1989 to 2013 and applies Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in order to investigate impact of those factors on trade balance in Vietnam. The results show that Gross domestic product, Foreign direct investment and oil price have positive impacts on trade balance while Government expenditure, Household expenditure and industrial growth rate have negative impacts on trade balance.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123503634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Innovations in the Crude Oil Market: Sentiment, Exploration and Production Methods 原油市场的创新:情绪、勘探和生产方法
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2594354
T. Murphy, Stephen Kelly, K. Ahmad
{"title":"Innovations in the Crude Oil Market: Sentiment, Exploration and Production Methods","authors":"T. Murphy, Stephen Kelly, K. Ahmad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2594354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2594354","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of innovations on short-run crude oil markets. These innovations relate to U.S. energy policy-makers focus on self-sufficiency and security. The concomitant legislation facilitated hydraulic fracturing via the expeditious award to some shale-well disadvantaged states within the Union. The impact of the policy resulted in a mixed response: large-scale investment was made by EP that crude oil futures returns have a diminishing negative correlation with the drilling permit proxy and subsequently the proxy could help explain a lagged positive effect of up to 25 basis points on crude oil futures returns; and that high news negativity could also predict a 7 basis point drop in crude oil futures returns on average during the sample period.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114266111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The Liberal Rarity of South America: Oil and Mining Policy Reform in Colombia in the 2000s 南美的自由稀罕物:哥伦比亚2000年代的石油和矿业政策改革
SRPN: Oil (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2926983
Carlos Caballero Argaez, S. Bitar
{"title":"The Liberal Rarity of South America: Oil and Mining Policy Reform in Colombia in the 2000s","authors":"Carlos Caballero Argaez, S. Bitar","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2926983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2926983","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: Even though Colombia exports minerals and oil, it cannot be considered as an oil or mineral-rich country. Colombia depends largely on this to generate income for the central and subnational governments, but because of the limited availability of these resources, and the comparatively large costs of exploiting them, Colombia has required foreign and domestic private investment to develop the sector. Through an overview of the history of mining and petroleum in Colombia, this paper revises the position of the government towards foreign investment in these sectors. Ultimately, it argues that Colombia has not experienced energy and resource nationalism, at a comparable level to other countries of the region, due to the low capacity of the state to develop these sectors in the absence of private and foreign investment. \u0000Spanish Abstract: Aunque Colombia exporta minerales e hidrocarburos, no puede ser considerado como un pais rico en estos recursos. Colombia depende en gran medida de estos recursos para generar ingresos al gobierno central y a los gobiernos locales, pero debido a la escasa disponibilidad que tiene a ellos y al alto costo comparativo que representa su explotacion, este pais ha necesitado inversion privada nacional y extranjera para desarrollar estos sectores. A traves de una revision de la historia de la mineria y el sector petrolero en Colombia, este paper estudia la posicion del gobierno frente a la inversion privada y la inversion extranjera en el sector minero energetico. Finalmente se argumenta que Colombia no ha experimentado nacionalismo energetico en comparacion con otros paises de la region, debido a la escasa capacidad del Estado para desarrollar estos sectores sin la inversion privada y extranjera.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132729420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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