{"title":"The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices, Interest Rates and Oil Price Uncertainty on Unemployment in US","authors":"Baris Kocaarslan, M. Soytaş, U. Soytaş","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3478557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3478557","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil prices, oil price uncertainty, interest rates and unemployment in a cointegration framework. Utilizing the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach, we show the asymmetric responses of unemployment to changes in oil prices, oil price uncertainty and interest rates in the long-run. More specifically, the results of our analyses suggest that an increase in oil price results in increased unemployment while there is no significant impact of reduced oil prices. On the other hand, reduced oil price uncertainty leads to a decrease in unemployment whereas an increase in oil price uncertainty does not have an impact. We also observe increased unemployment in response to a decrease in interest rates as the impact of increased interest rates is not significant. Last but not least, we find that option-implied oil price volatility, as a measure of oil price uncertainty, outperforms the conditional volatility of crude oil prices in predicting unemployment. This study provides valuable implications for policymakers to design sound economic policies.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121703231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, M. Tahir, Alam Khan
{"title":"Simulations of US-Iran War and Its Impact on Global Oil Price Behavior","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, M. Tahir, Alam Khan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3441130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3441130","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We perform simulations to assess the impact of a war between the US and Iran on global oil price behavior. To do so, we evaluate different levels of war intensity and oil price behavior from a multidimensional perspective. In this context, we simulate various scenarios using a simulator which is based on a complex algorithm and multidimensional coordinate spaces. This new simulator is the “War Oil Crisis Simulator (WOC-Simulator)”. The WOC-Simulator provides policymakers and researchers with a new, simple analytical tool to study the impact of war on oil prices. We apply the simulator to different war scenarios between the US and Iran between 1980 and 2025. The two countries have been geopolitical adversaries since 1979, when an Islamic revolution toppled a pro-Western monarchy. The US remains the world's only global superpower and Iran is a major oil exporter with significant regional geopolitical influence. Persistent conflict between the two countries in the Middle East, a vital oil-producing region, may disrupt smooth flow of global oil supplies and thus destabilize global oil prices.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126180950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism","authors":"S. Asongu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3385749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3385749","url":null,"abstract":"Linkages between foreign aid, terrorism and natural resource (fuel and iron ore) exports are investigated in this study. The focus is on 78 developing countries with data for the period 1984 to 2008. The generalised method of moment is employed as empirical strategy. Three main foreign aid variables are used for the analysis, namely: bilateral aid, multilateral aid and total aid. The corresponding terrorism variables employed are: domestic terrorism, transnational terrorism, unclear terrorism and total terrorism. The following findings are established. First, the criteria informing the validity of specifications corresponding to iron ore exports do not hold. Second, there is evidence of convergence in fuel exports. Third, whereas the unconditional impacts of aid dynamics are not significant, the unconditional impacts of terrorism dynamics are consistently positive on fuel exports. Fourth, the interaction between terrorism and aid dynamics consistently display negative signs, with corresponding modifying aid thresholds within respective ranges. Unexpected signs are elicited and policy implications discussed. Given the unexpected results, an extended analysis is performed in which net effects are computed. These net effects are constitutive of the unconditional effect from terrorism and the conditional impacts from the interaction between foreign aid and terrorism dynamics. Based on the extended analysis, bilateral aid and total aid modulate terrorism dynamics to induce net positive effects on fuel exports while multilateral aid moderates terrorism dynamics to engender negative net effects on fuel exports. The research improves extant knowledge on nexuses between resources, terrorism and foreign aid.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128588000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What is New? The Role of Asymmetry and Breaks in Oil Price–Output Growth Volatility Nexus","authors":"I. Raheem, Nafisat Olabisi","doi":"10.1111/opec.12142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12142","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus. A representative of 10 countries was selected from net oil‐exporting and‐importing economies for the period 1986–2017. It is hypothesised that countries respond differently to changes in oil price. To prove this point, we use the recent nonlinear ARDL of Shin et al. ([Shin, Y., 2014]), based on the framework of the dynamic common correlated effect of the heterogeneous panel of Chudik and Pesaran ([Chudik, A., 2015]), to decompose oil price into positive and negative partial sums. Our results show that without accounting for breaks, asymmetry only matters for net oil exporters in both short‐ and long run. However, accounting for breaks expanded the importance of asymmetry to net oil importers (in the short run). These results are robust to changes in the measures of oil price and growth volatility.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125087677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emulsion Types, Stability Mechanisms and Rheology: A Review","authors":"A. Nour","doi":"10.53894/ijirss.v1i1.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v1i1.4","url":null,"abstract":"Emulsions have been widely used in different industrial processes. The development and production of good quality emulsions depend on the knowledge of emulsion preparation, stability mechanisms and rheological studies. To form stable emulsions, an emulsifier is required to reduce the droplet sizes of the emulsions and enhance the emulsion stability. The purpose of this review article is to provide information about types of emulsions, stability mechanisms and rheological studies as well as factor affecting the stability of emulsions.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130918466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Best Time to Complete Tax Manoeuvre In Russia's Oil Industry","authors":"A. Kaukin, E. Miller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3203284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3203284","url":null,"abstract":"Some positive results have been achieved since a tax reform was kicked off in the Russian oil sector late in 2014. The 2014 – 2017 period saw an increase in the average depth of oil refining in Russia. Despite ongoing disputes, now is a good time to complete the so-called “tax manoeuvre” and to create effective incentives for Russian oil refineries to enhance their operative efficiency. The key risk here lies in specific parameters of the reform, particularly in the amount, period and distribution mechanism of oil refineries subsidization.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129398285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Will the Petro-Yuan Be the Death Knell for the Petrodollar?","authors":"Mamdouh G. Salameh","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3157740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3157740","url":null,"abstract":"The 26th of March 2018 will go in history as the most momentous day for the United States’ economy, China’s economy and the petrodollar and also for China’s status as an economic superpower. In that day China launched its yuan-denominated crude oil futures in Shanghai thus challenging the petrodollar for dominance in the global oil market. Right now, China is the number one exporter on the globe, the largest crude oil importer in the world and also the world’s biggest economy based on purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese would like to see global currency usage reflect this shift in global economic power. The petrodollar system provides at least three immediate benefits to the United States. It increases global demand for US dollars. It also increases global demand for US debt securities and it gives the United States the ability to buy oil with a currency it can print at will. In geopolitical terms, the petrodollar lends vast economic and political power to the United States. China hopes to replicate this dynamic. Maintaining the petrodollar is America’s primary goal. Everything else is secondary. The paper will argue that the launching of the crude oil benchmark on the Shanghai exchange could mark the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. It will also argue that the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods could be the first shots in the petro-yuan/petrodollar war of attrition. This could escalate into a trade war between the two countries and a possible wider conflict beyond. The paper will maintain that it won’t be easy for the petro-yuan to unseat the petrodollar without the participation of Russia and Saudi Arabia. And while Russia is already on board, China is now trying to persuade Saudi Arabia to start accepting the petro-yuan for its crude oil. If the Chinese succeed, other oil exporters could follow suit. The paper will conclude that it is probable that the Chinese yuan will emerge as the world’s top reserve currency within the next decade with the petro-yuan dominating global oil trade backed by gold.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124448680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling the Response to Exogenous Shocks: The Capital Uplift Rate in Petroleum Taxation","authors":"M. Berg, Øyvind Bøhren, Erik Vassnes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3070015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3070015","url":null,"abstract":"We show how a recent drop in the Norwegian capital uplift rate by two percentage points changes optimal field design and reduces field value for shareholders. Although optimal design changes considerably and value drops by 12%, the ability to reoptimize design after the shock is worth only 1.5% of field value. This evidence suggests that large behavioral effects of a shock do not necessarily imply large value effects, making it less important to always account for the taxpayers' response. The valuation error in such cases may be moderate if one instead uses the simplifying and widespread assumption of unresponsive taxpayers.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124239820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Imperial Society for Promotion of the Russian Trade Shipping and the Oil Issue in the Russian Empire in the Last Quarter of the 19th Century","authors":"M. Kulikova","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3082170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3082170","url":null,"abstract":"Studies of interconnections between social, technological, economic and cultural forces belong to the trend of modernisation studies in the Russian Empire in the second half of the 19th century. Modernisation implies the establishment and growth of institutions and infrastructures that are examined as a set of communication practices between different actors – the state, experts and various offices. This research is an historical study of interconnections between technologies and society. It is focused on the significance of materiality (namely natural oil resources) in these processes","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122700730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fracking Bad Guys: Narrative Character Affect in Public Opinion About Hydraulic Fracturing","authors":"Chad Zanocco, Geoboo Song, Michael D. Jones","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3033321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3033321","url":null,"abstract":"Recent growth in unconventional oil and gas development is controversial, fueling an ongoing U.S. policy debate. Central to these discussions is hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’, a well-stimulation technique that has become synonymous with unconventional oil and gas extraction methods. This research applies Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) to explore how culturally-nuanced narratives shape individuals’ policy preferences toward fracking regulations. A census-balanced internet panel (n=1,145) is used to conduct a survey experiment where participants are randomly assigned to four groups and exposed to information regarding fracking practices. The control group receives only a baseline fact list (e.g., benefits and costs associated with fracking) while three treatment groups are exposed to one of three culturally distinct narratives (e.g., egalitarian narrative, hierarch narrative, and individualist narrative). The results of causal mediation analysis suggest that while there is no direct effect of the narrative treatments on the formation of individuals’ fracking policy preferences, culturally nuanced narratives do influence the general public’s attitudes on fracking policies indirectly through their effects on individuals’ reactions towards villain characters presented in the narratives. These findings demonstrate a complex cognitive interplay between narrative communication and policy preference formation among the American public.","PeriodicalId":343955,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Oil (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121705175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}