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Emotions in Economics: Maximization Need Not be Rational 经济学中的情感:最大化不一定是理性的
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3859493
DK Masta
{"title":"Emotions in Economics: Maximization Need Not be Rational","authors":"DK Masta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3859493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3859493","url":null,"abstract":"Lab experiments have revealed that animals sometimes outperform human-beings in terms of instrumental rationality. The current essay argues that constrained maximization tendency with consistency of preferences are perhaps genetically imbibed behavior of organism, and such examples display a behavior which is a-rational, i.e. not in the ambit of rationality. Examining the concept of rationality from the perspective of Dual-Systems theory, the current paper asserts that, by virtue of its similarity to animal cognition a part of human mind (system-1) is a myopic and impulsive maximizer with nature defined preferences outside rationality domain. <br><br>This impulsive and myopic nature of maximization explains why phenomenon like choice overload, regret for non-maximizing choices could be observed in human behavior, and why addiction can not be termed as rational. <br><br>Emotions as a basis of human action has eluded economic theory, and this essay attempts to fill this gap by introducing emotions as a basis for economic action by explaining why people in the state of arousal (dominated by system-1) act differently than their own sensible self (with system-2 as a watchdog) when they are cool.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125501776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Do Expectations Affect Learning About Fundamentals? Some Experimental Evidence 预期如何影响基础知识的学习?一些实验证据
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2020-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3542787
Kieran Marray, Nikhil Krishna, Jarel Tang
{"title":"How Do Expectations Affect Learning About Fundamentals? Some Experimental Evidence","authors":"Kieran Marray, Nikhil Krishna, Jarel Tang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542787","url":null,"abstract":"Individuals' output often depends not just on their ability and actions, but also on external factors or fundamentals, whose effect they cannot separately identify. At the same time, many individuals have incorrect beliefs about their own ability. Heidhues et al. (2018) characterise overconfident and underconfident individuals' equilibrium beliefs and learning process in these situations. They argue overconfident individuals will act sub-optimally because of how they learn. We carry out the first experimental test of their theory. Subjects take incorrectly marked tests, and we measure how they learn about the marker's accuracy over time. We use machine learning to identify heterogeneous effects. Overconfident subjects have lower beliefs about the fundamental, as Heidhues et al. predict, and thus would make sub-optimal decisions. But we find no evidence it is because of how they learn.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132105592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It 对概率分布的过度自信:人们知道他们不知道，但他们不知道该怎么做
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2019-03-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3435793
Jack B. Soll, Asa B. Palley, J. Klayman, D. Moore
{"title":"Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It","authors":"Jack B. Soll, Asa B. Palley, J. Klayman, D. Moore","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3435793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3435793","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying uncertainty in the form of a probability distribution is a critical step in many managerial decision problems. However, a large body of previous work has documented pervasive overconfidence in subjective probability distributions (SPDs). We develop new methods to analyze judgments about variables which entail both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty and, in three experiments, study the quality of people’s SPDs in such settings. We find that although SPDs roughly match the aleatory concentration of the real-world distributions, people’s judgments are consistently overconfident because they fail to spread out probability mass to account for their own epistemic uncertainty about the location and other properties of the distribution. Although people are aware of this lack of knowledge, they do not know how to appropriately incorporate it into their SPDs. Our results offer new insights into the causes of overconfidence in real-world judgment domains and shed light on potential ways to address this fundamental bias.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124725116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Scarcity Perception Personality Theory 稀缺感知人格理论
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2018-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3231297
Dean Stalnaker
{"title":"Scarcity Perception Personality Theory","authors":"Dean Stalnaker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3231297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3231297","url":null,"abstract":"A personality theory focuses on variations among individuals. In forming a personality theory, it is essential to construct an image of the individual and the psychological processes that comprise that picture. A personality theory aims to investigate the psychological variations that form our personality (McLeod, 2014). The primary focus of my personality theory is comprised on the concept of general scarcity. Scarcity is the idea of having a shortage of an item. Scarcity is a wanting or lack of something that we have determined that we must have. Scarcity is a term that is often used in the field of economics, which drives the forces within various types of economic systems. However, I suggest that our perception of scarcity dominates more than just our financial system it has a much larger role in our lives. Within my theory of personality, there is a biopsychosocial aspect of our existence associated with our perception of scarcity that forms our personality and determines our view of oneness with our multi-environments. How we perform in our environments determines the shape, direction, and stability of those conditions. There is an order of unity between our perception of scarcity and environments.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133346708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quitting When the Going Gets Tough: A Downside of High Performance Expectations 当事情变得艰难时辞职:高绩效期望的负面影响
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2017-08-18 DOI: 10.5465/AMJ.2014.1045
Hengchen Dai, Berkeley J. Dietvorst, Bradford Tuckfield, Katherine L. Milkman, M. Schweitzer
{"title":"Quitting When the Going Gets Tough: A Downside of High Performance Expectations","authors":"Hengchen Dai, Berkeley J. Dietvorst, Bradford Tuckfield, Katherine L. Milkman, M. Schweitzer","doi":"10.5465/AMJ.2014.1045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5465/AMJ.2014.1045","url":null,"abstract":"High performance expectations often improve performance. When individuals with high external performance expectations encounter early setbacks, however, they face impression management concerns and...","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133281738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Wall Street Crosses Memory Lane: How Witnessed Returns Affect Professionals' Expected Returns 华尔街走过记忆的道路:见证回报如何影响专业人士的预期回报
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2017-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2877366
A. Hoffmann, Zwetelina Iliewa, Lena Jaroszek
{"title":"Wall Street Crosses Memory Lane: How Witnessed Returns Affect Professionals' Expected Returns","authors":"A. Hoffmann, Zwetelina Iliewa, Lena Jaroszek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2877366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2877366","url":null,"abstract":"Witnessing stock-market history in the making creates a vivid story, but does not provide valuable information. However, finance professionals extrapolate from personally witnessed returns, which we show by using a unique dataset about the timing of their career start in the finance industry. This result is robust when controlling for all publicly available information and other time-fixed effects as well as interpersonal differences. Additionally, we find that returns witnessed early in the career are more formative than those witnessed recently. Finally, among the potential channels through which witnessed returns might affect expected returns, a judgmental bias appears most plausible.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"118 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128151486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Analyst Behaviour: The Geography of Social Interaction 分析师行为:社会互动的地理学
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2013-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1988831
Frederik König
{"title":"Analyst Behaviour: The Geography of Social Interaction","authors":"Frederik König","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1988831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1988831","url":null,"abstract":"An analyst who works in Germany is more likely to publish a high (low) price target regarding a DAX30 stock if other Germany based analysts are also optimistic (pessimistic) about the same stock. This finding is not biased by the fact that DAX30 companies are headquartered in Germany. In times of bull markets, price targets of analysts who regularly exchange their opinion are higher correlated compared to other analysts. This effect vanishes in a bearish market environment. This suggests that communication among analysts indeed plays an important role. However, analysts’ incentives induce them not to deviate too much from the overall average during an economic downturn.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115938283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Group Representations for Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 风险与不确定性下决策的群体表述
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2012-12-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2189880
G. Charles-Cadogan, G. Charles-Cadogan
{"title":"Group Representations for Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty","authors":"G. Charles-Cadogan, G. Charles-Cadogan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2189880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2189880","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends decision making under risk and uncertainty to group theory via representations of invariant behavioural space for prospect theory. First, we predict that canonical specifications for value functions, probability weighting functions, and stochastic choice maps are homomorphic. Second, we derive a continuous singular matrix operator T for affine transformation of a vector space of skewed S-shape value functions V isomorphic to a vector spaceW of inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions. To characterize the transformation, we decompose the operator into shear, scale and translation components. In that milieu, Moore-Penrose psuedoinverse transformation recovers value functions from probability weighting functionals. Removal of 0 from the point spectrum induces nonsingular operators that support group representation of stochastic choice maps in an invariant subspace of the general linear group GL(V). Third, we demonstrate how group theoretic operations on a gamble provide mathematical foundations of probability weighting functions that subsume the Prelec class. Fourth, we predict that a gamble is isomorphic to an invariant cyclic sub-group in weighted probablity space. This result implies that probability weighting functions [and value functions] fluctuate near their extremes, and explain violation of transitivity axioms in decision theory. Moreover, representations include the special unitary group SU(2) and orthogonal group Θ*3. The former includes Pauli’s spin matrices and accounts for skewness. It also provides microfoundations for construction of (1) behavioural stochastic processes from group character in the frequency domain; and (2) Schrodinger-Pauli Hamiltonian to compute, inter alia, time dependent probabilities in decision field theory.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116333847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Are Risk-Preferences Dynamic? Within-Subject Variation in Risk-Taking as a Function of Background Music 风险偏好是动态的吗?冒险行为的主体内变异与背景音乐的关系
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2012-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1997520
Marja-Liisa Halko, Markku Kaustia
{"title":"Are Risk-Preferences Dynamic? Within-Subject Variation in Risk-Taking as a Function of Background Music","authors":"Marja-Liisa Halko, Markku Kaustia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1997520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1997520","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether preference interactions can explain why risk preferences change over time and across contexts. We conduct an experiment in which subjects accept or reject gambles involving real money gains and losses. We introduce within-subject variation by alternating subjectively liked music and disliked music in the background. We find that favourite music increases risk-taking, and disliked music suppresses risk-taking, compared to a baseline of no music. Several theories in psychology propose mechanisms by which mood affects risktaking, but none of them fully explain our results. The results are, however, consistent with preference complementarities that extend to risk preference.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123956882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Relationship between Everyday Practices and Financial Literacy: An Empirical Analysis 日常实践与财务素养的关系:实证分析
ORG: Rationality Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2016068
M. Caratelli, Ornella Ricci
{"title":"The Relationship between Everyday Practices and Financial Literacy: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"M. Caratelli, Ornella Ricci","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2016068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2016068","url":null,"abstract":"The global financial crisis has drawn the attention of both scholars and supervisors to the issue of financial education as an instrument for the development of efficient markets. The aim of this paper is to test the hypothesis that financial experience, gained with the daily use of different products and services, has a relevant effect on the acquisition of financial capabilities. Data are drawn by the 2008 Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, collecting a wide set of information on respondents and including 9 multiple-choice quizzes to measure financial literacy. A regression model was performed to assess the impact on financial literacy of four different groups of variables: socio-demographic features; income, consumption and household wealth; formal education and the experience resulting from the active participation in the capital market through the holding of financial assets and the use of specific products. The contribution of each group of regressors was measured with the Bonferroni index. Our results are consistent with previous literature, confirming a higher level of financial literacy for middle-aged adults, men, white collars, teachers, officials and managers, increasing with the years of schooling, household income and wealth. As for the financial experience, the Bonferroni index provided a strong evidence of its crucial role in explaining financial literacy, also with respect to a model already accounting for general education. This finding suggests to policymakers the adoption of incentives on the use of financial instruments or wealth accumulation, other than on educational programs.","PeriodicalId":339382,"journal":{"name":"ORG: Rationality","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130805944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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