B. J. Fisel, S. J. Garbers, D. Haar, M. M. Zoerner, W. J. Gutowski
{"title":"Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress","authors":"B. J. Fisel, S. J. Garbers, D. Haar, M. M. Zoerner, W. J. Gutowski","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1357391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1357391","url":null,"abstract":"Crops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer.We analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041-2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap.Identified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type.The information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141021417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giuseppe Parete, Maria Francesca Bruno, Pietro Calabrese, Roberto Carlucci, Miriam Chiarulli, Gianfranco D'Onghia, Annunziata Fiore, Umberto Fratino, Caterina Longo, Francesco Longo, Serena Scorrano, Francesco Gentile
{"title":"Climate impacts and adaptation strategies for coastal erosion, aquaculture, and tourism along the Adriatic side of Apulia region","authors":"Giuseppe Parete, Maria Francesca Bruno, Pietro Calabrese, Roberto Carlucci, Miriam Chiarulli, Gianfranco D'Onghia, Annunziata Fiore, Umberto Fratino, Caterina Longo, Francesco Longo, Serena Scorrano, Francesco Gentile","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1378253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1378253","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses the imperative need for adaptation strategies to climate impacts in coastal areas, particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Under the Interreg project “AdriaClim,” our research aims to provide a comprehensive account of predicted climate impacts and corresponding adaptation measures for three key sectors for the coastal economy of the Puglia region (Southern Italy): coastal erosion, aquaculture, and tourism. Analyzing regional climate projections, predicted climatic anomalies for Apulia have been delineated. Together with a comprehensive description of the investigated sectors, the expected sectoral climate impacts have been identified. The respective adaptation measures for each sector have been evaluated in terms of coherence with the studied context and effectiveness, among those proposed in the literature. In aquaculture, climate change may influence ecosystem structure, functionality, production cycles, infrastructure, and organism physiology. Integrated multitrophic aquaculture (IMTA) emerges as a solution to enhance the resilience of Apulian aquatic production systems to climate change. For coastal tourism, the vulnerability to various climate impacts is emphasized. These impacts can directly influence tourist flows or indirectly alter the attractiveness of the Apulian Adriatic coast. Given the sector's strong ties to anthropic, natural, and cultural elements, a comprehensive adaptive approach proves most effective. Concerning coastal erosion, results underscore the prevalence of numerous stretches of eroding low coastline, with future projections indicating scenarios of widespread retreat along the southern Adriatic coast. Consequently, protective, and coastal management measures become imperative. The analyses and the obtained results serves as a valuable knowledge framework essential for formulating a climate change adaptation plan for the Apulian Adriatic coast, aligning with the regional authorities' orientations.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140658694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Urban forests and their contribution to sustainable urban development in a global context: a case study of Multan, Pakistan","authors":"Anum Aleha, Syeda Mahwish Zahra, Sabeen Qureshi, Shehroze Shah, Sohrab Ahmed Marri, Maska Khan","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1275102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1275102","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, cities and towns are home to over half of the global population, and this percentage will rise over the coming decades. Cities can be wonderful homes to live in if planned and maintained properly, but most urban developments have noticeably caused environmental destruction, which in turn results in issues like urban heat islands, flooding, and air pollution. Cities require forests as their breathing organs. The study refers to the case of Multan City, where the climate is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to rapid urbanization and the lack of vegetation. The study aims to provide an urban green infrastructure (UGI), which abides by the key proactive resilience principles of effectiveness, diversity, dependence, durability, versatility, autonomy, planning, and adaptability. A strategic literature review has been done to study the effects of urban forests, and various studies were reviewed as per the methodology adopted worldwide. The policy frameworks of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the New Urban Agenda (NUA) were considered while selecting sites for implementing urban forests. A five-point Likert scale questionnaire was developed for the participation of the community nearby. Ten different sites were selected in the city based on ownership and feasibility, irrespective of SDG, NUA, and community opinions. The study concludes with the design suggestion of one site as a prototype in the given context.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140667774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leonardo Aragão, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nadia Pinardi, G. Verri, Alfonso Senatore, Silvana Di Sabatino
{"title":"The freshwater discharge into the Adriatic Sea revisited","authors":"Leonardo Aragão, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nadia Pinardi, G. Verri, Alfonso Senatore, Silvana Di Sabatino","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1368456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1368456","url":null,"abstract":"The present study reconstructs the river discharge climatology and its respective historical series for all rivers of the Adriatic Sea with averaged climatological daily river discharge above 1 m3s−1, to reach a better representation of the Adriatic rivers in hydrodynamic models and, consequently, to develop a more realistic freshwater balance in the different regions of the hydrographic basin. Based on the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) data set, a careful method of identification and selection of the Adriatic rivers, followed by a rigorous assessment against observational data, was developed to evaluate the current state of the Adriatic river discharges and their respective trends throughout several climate indicators from 1991 to 2022. Observational data are limited to 85% of the identified rivers, totaling 98% of the overall freshwater input into the Adriatic Sea. The results confirm that the Shallow Northern Adriatic receives the largest freshwater inputs with a daily average exceeding 2,400 m3s−1, which amounts to 61% of the overall Adriatic discharges. Consequently, this region guides the freshwater seasonal cycle of the Adriatic Sea, which presents a well-defined pattern of two flood peaks in late autumn and late spring, separated by a minimum discharge period at mid-summer. From the Central to the Southern Adriatic subregions, the absence of snow-melting effects prevents the secondary flood peak during the spring, shaping the seasonal cycle of river discharges from a single flood peak in late autumn to a drought period in August. The 32 years of continuous river discharge data reveal a negligible trend in the overall Adriatic Sea but a negative trend for the last decade (2013–2022). This decadal decrease is driven by the extreme drought that drastically pounded the northern Adriatic in 2022.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140667043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tereza Cavazos, M. Bettolli, Donovan Campbell, Roberto A. Sánchez Rodríguez, Michelle Mycoo, Paola A. Arias, J. Rivera, M. Reboita, Carla Gulizia, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Anna A. Sörensson, R. Cerezo-Mota, Edwin J. Castellanos, Débora Ley, Roché Mahon
{"title":"Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region","authors":"Tereza Cavazos, M. Bettolli, Donovan Campbell, Roberto A. Sánchez Rodríguez, Michelle Mycoo, Paola A. Arias, J. Rivera, M. Reboita, Carla Gulizia, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Anna A. Sörensson, R. Cerezo-Mota, Edwin J. Castellanos, Débora Ley, Roché Mahon","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1392033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1392033","url":null,"abstract":"The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and the increasing frequency and strength of climate impacts, highlight the urgent need of adaptation, particularly in developing countries. Unfortunately, current levels of adaptation initiatives are not enough to counteract the observed impacts and projected risks from climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review and highlight relevant issues that have limited the capacity to transform climate knowledge and parties’ ambitions into action in the region. Current vulnerabilities and climatic impact-drivers in LAC are diverse, complex, and region-specific and their effects are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the advancement of regional and domestic climate agendas has been hindered by scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, and financial, technical, human, and economic limitations that are common to many LAC countries. Transforming climate data into multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors and understanding their contribution for feasible adaptation strategies are delayed by regional and local conundrums such as lack of inclusive governance, data availability, equity, justice, and transboundary issues. We discuss ways to move forward to develop local and regional climate resilient development actions and a more sustainable future in LAC. The climate science community in LAC needs to strengthen its local, national, and international connections and with decision/policymakers and society to establish a three-way engagement by proposing suitable adaptation actions and international negotiations to reduce the risks and vulnerability associated with climate extremes, climate variability and climate change in the region. The discussions and insights presented in this work could be extrapolated to other countries in the Global South.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140668190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Piotr Wolski, Olivier Crespo, M. Tadross, Fidelity Z. Khumalo, Tamika Du-Pont, Damien Riquet, Catherine Jones
{"title":"On the quantitative limits for triggering drought anticipatory actions in Mindanao, the Philippines","authors":"Piotr Wolski, Olivier Crespo, M. Tadross, Fidelity Z. Khumalo, Tamika Du-Pont, Damien Riquet, Catherine Jones","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1336442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1336442","url":null,"abstract":"Anticipatory Action (AA), which involves timely and informed actions ahead of a crisis/impact, is increasingly being used/promoted as a way to mitigate the impacts of extreme climatic hazards, including droughts. Actions are initiated in anticipation of the occurrence of the hazard and its impacts, and depend on the lead time, likelihood of impact, as well as the effectiveness of, and the capacity to undertake such actions. A decision to initiate actions is taken with a support of the so-called trigger model that forecasts likelihood or magnitude of expected impact. To build efficient and credible AA trigger models, quantitative assessments of relationships between observed climate and environmental conditions, weather/seasonal forecasts, and variables expressing current sectoral and societal vulnerability (collectively referred to as indicators) and expected impacts, are required at varied lead times. These quantitative assessments are needed to: (a) avoid over-weighting (placing excessive trust in) non-skillful indicators; (b) avoid using several co-varying and correlated indicators (over-emphasising their collective importance for the decision at hand); and (c) provide objective and defensible evidence for and consequently confidence in the AA trigger model. Motivated by the need to improve the current AA trigger model used for agricultural drought by FAO in Mindanao, a region of the Philippines which experiences periodic drought-related food insecurity, this study evaluates a range of climate and environmental indicators as a basis for developing a quantitative, objective trigger model. The analyses focus on: (i) an evaluation of efficacy of using a climate-only drought hazard index as an expression of impactful drought in the region, and (ii) an evaluation of the predictive utility of a set of indicators and formal statistical models combining these indicators, at various lead times. We show that the predictive utility of each indicator varies by season and lead time, highlight the varying skill of the trigger model and consequently advocate for transparent inclusion of model skill in the trigger mechanism.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140684315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Issiaka M. Bizo, Bouba Traore, Amadou Sidibé, Moussa Soulé
{"title":"Effectiveness of climate information services: an evaluation of the accuracy and socio-economic benefits for smallholder farmers in Niger and Mali","authors":"Issiaka M. Bizo, Bouba Traore, Amadou Sidibé, Moussa Soulé","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1345888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345888","url":null,"abstract":"Climate information services are foundational means of building the farmer’s resilience. However, studies are scarce about the accuracy of climate information services in dryland regions such as the West Africa Sahel, like in Mali and Niger. Thus, this study examined the accuracy of climate forecasts and their socio-economic benefits in these two countries. For rainfall forecasts and alerts, we collected the 2022 data from the ‘SMS Sandji’ platform in Mali (Nara) and the national meteorological agency alert database in Niger (Zinder). The socio-economic benefits of climate information were determined using a sample of 900 individuals in Niger and 227 in Mali. The results indicate that both seasonal and daily climate forecasts have high to moderate accuracy from 0.7 to 0.58 for CSI and 0.11 to 0.43 for BS index in Niger, and 0.94 to 0.91 for CSI, and 0.06 to 0.25 for BS in Mali. The results of field survey show that, in general, 87 to 100% of the respondents in Niger and 100% in Mali received the seasonal forecasts. ANOVA also reveals with high significance (p value = 0.0001) that the utilization of climate information plays a crucial role in improving farmers’ average financial incomes with FCFA 24,943 per hectare at season onset to FCFA 15,355 per hectare during the cropping season, and FCFA 6204 per hectare at the end of the season, and time-saving of 36 h per hectare to 8 h per hectare, depending on the period when the information was used. Globally, this work underscores the importance of climate information services and highlights their positive socio-economic impacts to the livelihood of farmers.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140691709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Rossi, Sylvain Ponserre, E. Trasforini, Daria Ottonelli, Lorenzo Campo, A. Libertino, Eleonora Panizza, R. Rudari
{"title":"A new methodology for probabilistic flood displacement risk assessment: the case of Fiji and Vanuatu","authors":"L. Rossi, Sylvain Ponserre, E. Trasforini, Daria Ottonelli, Lorenzo Campo, A. Libertino, Eleonora Panizza, R. Rudari","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1345258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345258","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an enhanced probabilistic flood displacement risk assessment methodology. Several techniques have been proposed to estimate the number of people at risk of being displaced triggered due to climatic extremes. Among these methods, the probabilistic approach is promising for its quantitative nature and versatility at different scales. However, it has so far been limited to assessing loss of housing as the sole cause of displacement. The proposed methodology addresses this limitation by considering two additional elements beyond the traditional evaluation of housing loss: the likelihood of losing means of livelihood, directly included in the computation, and the likelihood of losing access to essential services, such as schools and health centers, provided as a factor to increase the propensity to displace. This new methodology is applied to assess flood disaster displacement risk in Fiji and Vanuatu, where climate change, coupled with the vulnerability of exposed assets, poses an existential threat to these Pacific islands, potentially leading to internal and cross-border population movements. Different climate scenarios were considered: current climate conditions (1979–2016 period), medium-term projected climate conditions (2016–2060), and long-term projected climate conditions (2061–2100). The average annual displacement increases in Fiji and Vanuatu by a factor of 3 and 4, respectively, in the projected long-term pessimistic climate scenario compared to current conditions. Depending on the country and climate change scenario, 20 to 40% of these displacements stem from loss of livelihoods as a dominant factor, highlighting the importance of considering this aspect in the vulnerability approach. The outcomes of these scenarios serve as the foundation for implementing displacement risk adaptation and management measures. This novel quantitative methodology holds significant potential for applications in larger domains and even globally.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140692701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the first inter-monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka in the post-El Niño years","authors":"K. R. K. D. N. Ranaweera, Youichi Kamae","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1361322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1361322","url":null,"abstract":"Sri Lanka has a tropical monsoon climate. The first intermonsoon (FIM) season is one of four rainfall seasons. Previous investigations have explored the concurrent ramifications of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); however, its impact on seasonal rainfall patterns in the country in the post-El Niño years remains unexplored. This study aims to investigate anomalous FIM rainfall in Sri Lanka during the post-El Niño years. Weather station rainfall data from the Department of Meteorology for 114 stations for 1975–2019, Japanese 55-year reanalysis data, and COBE sea surface temperature data were used in this study. A significant negative correlation between rainfall at most stations and the preceding year’s November, December, and January Niño3.4 index (NDJ Niño3.4) was identified for the FIM season. All three super El Niño events and one of the two strong El Niño events agree with the above results, showing a clear negative rainfall anomaly pattern. The Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor effect was identified as the cause of rainfall reduction during the FIM season in Sri Lanka and in contrast, the post-El Niño season in 1988 exhibited a positive rainfall anomaly. A rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña and the associated atmospheric conditions were identified as significant contributors to these features. The findings of this study will help overcome this research gap and improve the accuracy of seasonal forecasts for the country.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140700070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tatiana Merino-Benítez, L. Bojórquez-Tapia, Y. Miquelajauregui, Eduardo Batllori-Sampedro
{"title":"Navigating climate change complexity and deep uncertainty: approach for building socio-ecological resilience using qualitative dynamic simulation","authors":"Tatiana Merino-Benítez, L. Bojórquez-Tapia, Y. Miquelajauregui, Eduardo Batllori-Sampedro","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1331945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1331945","url":null,"abstract":"The consequences of climate change on different sectors of society are interrelated. The threats posed by rising global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather events, and shifting climatic patterns are becoming increasingly evident all around the world. Policymakers face the daunting task of assessing climate change risks, encompassing impacts and response strategies, to guide sustainability transformations. In this study, we introduce a four-step qualitative Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approach in the context of Climate Change Impact Assessments (CCIA). Our goal is to enhance the integration of CCIA into spatial planning, particularly in the Global South, using qualitative system dynamics simulation. Emphasizing the value of qualitative DMDU, we explore vulnerability and resilience through a lens of multi-sectoral and multi-scalar socio-ecological processes. We exemplify our approach by applying CCIA to the coastal zone of Yucatán, Mexico, accounting for social and environmental heterogeneity across the four Regions in which it is administered. Results identify the optimal allocation of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to address specified resilience in each Region, all of which are required to achieve the overall resilience of the coastal zone. We argue that our qualitative DMDU approach provides an analytical platform to address the trade-offs inherent in the ranking of multiple vulnerabilities related to achieving general resilience.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140702197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}