{"title":"Fine-Grained, Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis on Economic and Financial Lexicon","authors":"S. Consoli, Luca Barbaglia, S. Manzan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3766194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3766194","url":null,"abstract":"The last two decades have seen a tremendous increase in the adoption of Semantic Web technologies as a result of the availability of big data, the growth in computational power and the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Cutting-edge semantic techniques are now able to capture sentiments more accurately in various practical applications, including economic and financial forecasting. In particular, the extraction of sentiment from news text, social media and blogs for the prediction of economic and financial variables has attracted attention in recent years. Despite many successful applications of sentiment analysis (SA) in these domains, the range of semantic techniques employed is still limited and mostly focused on the detection of sentiment at a coarse-grained level, that is, whether the sentiment expressed by the entire text of a sentence is either positive or negative. This paper proposes a novel methodology for Fine-Grained Aspect-based Sentiment (FiGAS) analysis. The aim of the approach is to identify the sentiment associated to specific topics of interest in each sentence of a document and assigning real-valued polarity scores between -1 and +1 to those topics. The proposed approach is completely unsupervised and customized to the economic and financial domains by using a specialized lexicon make available along with the source code of FiGAS. Our lexicon-based SA approach relies on a detailed set of semantic polarity rules that allow understanding the origin of sentiment, in the spirit of the recent trend on textit{Interpretable AI}. We provide an in-depth comparison of the performance of the FiGAS algorithm relative to other popular lexicon-based SA approaches in predicting a humanly annotated data set in the economic and financial domains. Our results indicate that FiGAS statistically outperforms the other methods by providing a sentiment score that is closer to one of the human annotators.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127809110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Grogger, Sean Gupta, Ria Ivandić, Tom Kirchmaier
{"title":"Comparing Conventional and Machine-Learning Approaches to Risk Assessment in Domestic Abuse Cases","authors":"J. Grogger, Sean Gupta, Ria Ivandić, Tom Kirchmaier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760094","url":null,"abstract":"We compare predictions from a conventional protocol-based approach to risk assessment with those based on a machine-learning approach. We first show that the conventional predictions are less accurate than, and have similar rates of negative prediction error as, a simple Bayes classifier that makes use only of the base failure rate. A random forest based on the underlying risk assessment questionnaire does better under the assumption that negative prediction errors are more costly than positive prediction errors. A random forest based on two-year criminal histories does better still. Indeed, adding the protocol-based features to the criminal histories adds almost nothing to the predictive adequacy of the model. We suggest using the predictions based on criminal histories to prioritize incoming calls for service, and devising a more sensitive instrument to distinguish true from false positives that result from this initial screening.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131758648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Pleasant Yield of Financial Illiteracy","authors":"Yosef Bonaparte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3732260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3732260","url":null,"abstract":"Latest SCF 2016 wave shows that 57% of US households exhibit signs of financial illiteracy, a phenomenon even among college degree holders. Despite the previous findings about mistakes associated by financial illiterates, our findings portrays a picture in which financial illiterates households actually follow the standard financial theory. Specifically, financial illiterates report that they are aware of their lack of financial knowledge, and thus they bear less financial risk and allocate less money in risky assets, and constructively less overconfident (trade less frequently). Our findings enhance our understanding of the women and minorities unique portfolios, who exhibit highest level of illiteracy. Collectively, financial illiterates’ households adopt a portfolio choice strategy that is fully rational.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133046773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robots, Computers, and the Gender Wage Gap","authors":"Suqin Ge, Yu Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3450162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3450162","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyze the effects of two automation technologies, industrial robots and computing equipment, on the gender wage gap in US local labor markets between 1990 and 2015. We find distinct impact of robot and computer capital: an increase in robots decreases male wage more than female wage, whereas an increase in computers reduces female wage more than male wage. According to our estimates, one additional unit of robot per thousand workers reduces gender wage gap by 0.3 log points, and by contrast an increase in computer capital by one million dollars per thousand workers increases gender wage gap by 4.1 log points.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129001786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Complex Information and Accounting Standards: Evidence from UK Narratives","authors":"E. Efretuei, A. Usoro, Christina Koutra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3429610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3429610","url":null,"abstract":"Accounting literature has documented the occurrence of complex accounting narratives and economic consequences such as market delays in extracting information from narratives. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) were introduced to enhance reporting efficiencies and improve communication in financial reporting. However, research shows that the introduction of IFRS has increased narrative complexity, attributable to the demand for more reporting. Considering that accounting complexity can either be informative or non-informative, thereby causing obfuscation, this study performs an empirical analysis to explain the complexities in accounting narratives that may be affected by IFRS application. Using the framework and setting of IFRS adoption and a word list adjusted component of the fog index, it decomposes complexity into two components: information (common complexity) and obfuscation (uncommon complexity). The results evidence that IFRS adoption has increased the common complexity of accounting narratives that investors are likely to understand (information), but it does not necessarily increase obfuscation. Complementing the wider evidence around IFRS benefits, this evidence can be applied in accounting narrative complexity studies. This complexity decomposition is novel and contributes to the debate on the use of the fog index, while demonstrating the increased narrative comparability of IFRS reports.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126338896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gender Robustness of Overconfidence and Excess Entry","authors":"Katarína Danková, Maroš Servátka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3189133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3189133","url":null,"abstract":"Camerer and Lovallo (1999) present a thought-provoking experimental evidence that overconfidence might lead to excess entry into markets. As their findings are based on the majority of the sessions exclusively consisting of male participants, we replicate their experiment while including both men and women in all of our sessions. We are able to only partially replicate their main finding that the market entry decisions are driven by overconfidence. Surprisingly we also find that self-selection significantly decreases the entry rate. However, this is also where we observe gender differences in the entry rate – males who self-select into the experiment actually enter more often, which is in line with Camerer & Lovallo’s observation. Our experiment thus points out that the overconfidence effect is sensitive to the participants’ gender and experimental conditions.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129354387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reaching the Top or Falling Behind?: The Role of Occupational Segregation in Women's Chances of Finding a High-Paying Job Over the Life-Cycle","authors":"Federico H. Gutierrez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3274877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3274877","url":null,"abstract":"Using a two-stage decomposition technique, this paper analyzes the role of occupational segregation in explaining the probability of women vis-a-vis men of finding high-paying jobs over the life-cycle. Jobs are classified as highly-remunerated if their compensation exceeds a threshold, which is set at different values to span the entire wage distribution. Results obtained from pooled CPS surveys indicate that the importance of occupational segregation remains virtually unchanged over the life-cycle for low- and middle-wage workers. However, women's access to high-paying occupations becomes significantly more restricted as workers age, suggesting a previously undocumented type of `glass ceiling' in the U.S.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128328879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"News-Based Indices on Country Fundamentals","authors":"Andras Fulop, Z. Kocsis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3132278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3132278","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel method to extract information on macro fundamentals based on regular expressions and compare its performance vis-a-vis two popular alternatives in the current finance literature based on predefined dictionaries and supervised learning techniques. We create news indices about fundamentals according to these techniques on a news dataset by Reuters and compare how the techniques fare at (i) capturing observed economic surprises (macro announcements compared to Bloomberg survey expectations) and (ii) correctly predicting labels on a manually classified test sample of the news text corpus. We demonstrate that our methodology is better able to identify and discriminate among fundamentals than the alternative techniques. We further show the benefit of our fundamental news indices in an econometric application that investigates the fundamental content of asset prices in the sovereign credit risk arena.","PeriodicalId":331527,"journal":{"name":"WGSRN: Data Collection & Empirical Methods (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126429549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}