Anna Cláudia De Vasconcelos, M. Tessmann, Humberto Nunes Alencar
{"title":"Economic Analysis of Judicial Conciliation in Brazilian Financial Institutions","authors":"Anna Cláudia De Vasconcelos, M. Tessmann, Humberto Nunes Alencar","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1446","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000The present work aims to analyze the economic efficiency of judicial conciliation in defaulted credit contracts, through a case study of a major Brazilian financial institution, between the years 2014 and 2019. From the perspective of the economic analysis of law, this study analyzes the efficiency of conciliation in collective settlement events organized by the Federal Court, using three methods of assessment: maximization of gains and minimization of costs, Pareto efficiency, and the Kaldor-Hicks criterion. The results indicate that conciliation, when successful, demonstrates economic efficiency; however, as a public policy, it does not achieve indices compatible with the advantages stemming from its adoption. These findings contribute to the scientific literature that studies alternative dispute-resolution methods by providing empirical evidence for financial institutions and policymakers in the sector.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: K10, K12, K15, K41.\u0000Keywords: Economic Analysis of Law, Pareto’s efficiency, Kaldor-Hicks criterion, Judicial Conciliation, Economic Efficiency.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"51 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141654810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bank Customer Churn Prediction Using Machine Learning Framework","authors":"Rasha Ashraf","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1445","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000Using real customer data from a large community bank in the South of the US, this paper analyzes the customer churn prediction problem by constructing and comparing ten machine learning classification models with five sample techniques. Our results show that Random Forest, XG Boost, AdaBoost, and Bagging Meta classifiers dominate others in terms of overall accuracy, F-score, and AUC curve for the test observations. For the four classifiers, the overall accuracy ranges from 87% to 96% across five different sampling methods explored, while the AUC values range between 0.9 to 0.93. Considering overall accuracy and F-Score, AdaBoost with original and MTDF sampling technique dominates others; however, considering the AUC measure, XG Boost and Random Forest perform similarly to AdaBoost, which slightly dominate Bagging Meta across all sampling techniques; although the performance measures for these four classifiers are comparable across all sampling techniques. The paper further presents important features of customer churn behavior as predicted by the model. The diagnostic analysis also provides an insightful comparison between churned and non-churned customers.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: C0, C5, C8, G21.\u0000Keywords: Machine learning, Big data, Sampling techniques, Customer churn, Customer retention, Financial services, Community bank.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"6 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141267234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carbon Disclosure and Information Asymmetry","authors":"Kuei Chiu Lee","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1444","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This study is investigated the influence of corporate disclosure of carbon emissions on information asymmetry. The results found that company emissions and disclosure has a positive impact on information asymmetry, but no relationship between carbon emissions and information asymmetry. This discrepancy may be attributed to the lack of carbon-related regulations on government policy during the study period, which affected investors' response to carbon information asymmetry.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: G32.\u0000Keywords: Carbon disclosure, Information Asymmetry, Sustainable Development.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"86 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141116276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring Calendar Effects in Bitcoin Returns: An Analysis of Market Efficiency","authors":"Chen-Han Liu","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1443","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This study delves into the exploration of calendar effects within Bitcoin returns to examine the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Leveraging data spanning from October 2015 to November 2021, this research employs regression analysis and power ratio analysis to investigate the presence of day-of-the-week and intraday effects on Bitcoin prices. The findings reveal statistically significant anomalies for Fridays and specific intraday periods, suggesting the potential for abnormal returns. However, these calendar effects are not pervasive enough to conclusively impact overall market efficiency. The study's results indicate that while Bitcoin's market may exhibit short-term inefficiencies, it largely conforms to the principles of market efficiency over extended periods. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on the efficiency of cryptocurrency markets and highlights the necessity for further investigation using diverse methodologies to fully understand the dynamics at play.\u0000\u0000\u0000Keywords: Calendar Effect, Bitcoin Price, Regression Analysis, Power Ratio.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"66 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140972275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring Financial Stability in Curaçao and Sint Maarten","authors":"Gavin Ooft, Monique-Thijn Baank","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1442","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000Assessing the solidity of the financial system may be cumbersome since there is no single comprehensive indicator to measure financial stability. This paper presents two aggregate measures that can be deployed as early warning measures of financial stability for the monetary union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten, mainly focusing on the banking sector. As this sector comprises most of the monetary union's assets, the constructed measures are mainly focused on this sector. Following financial stability literature, we apply empirical normalization and aggregation to construct an Aggregate Financial Stability Index (AFSI) and a Banking Stability Index (BSI). These indices have been gaining popularity among central banks to assess financial stability on top of conventional measures such as Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) and credit cycles. The AFSI comprises banking-sector indicators, macro-financial developments, and international trends, while the BSI captures dimensions of banks' financial soundness. We benchmark the AFSI and the BSI to the period of deteriorating macro-financial conditions induced by the coronavirus crisis, and the development in the indices was as expected. Based on the robustness analyses conducted, we deem the constructed indices plausible for measuring and tracking financial stability within the monetary union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: C20, C45, E58, F15, G21.\u0000Keywords: Early warning indicators, Financial stability, Financial soundness indicators.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141007166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of ESG on Corporate Financing Decisions Before and After Covid-19: Evidence from Taiwan","authors":"Ji-Ying Fang, Wen-Sheng Wang","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1441","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This study examines the differences in corporate financing decisions between companies engaged in ESG activities and those that are not during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our primary focus is on listed companies in Taiwan from 2018 to 2022 and panel regression is employed for analysis. The empirical findings show that companies during the Covid-19 pandemic raise more debt. However, the effect is offset by ESG engagement. As firms conduct more ESG activities, they will raise less debt after the pandemic. Our findings shed some lights on corporate financing decisions.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: G32.\u0000Keywords: ESG, Capital structure, Covid-19, Financing decisions.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"45 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140657228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investigating the Impact of Financial Reporting for Cryptocurrencies on Company Value","authors":"Kuo-Shing Chen","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1436","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This research focuses on investigating the impact of cryptocurrency accounting reports on company value (measured by financial performance) before and during the COVID 19 epidemic. Analyzing publicly listed companies’ data in firms’ 10-K filings, we find that there is no significant relation with the company’s profits while a company holds cryptocurrency positions. Although the issue of cryptocurrency accounting is an emerging topic, prior literature is mostly focused on cryptocurrency investment and is a rare investigation coping with the accounting treatment of crypto-assets. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge of fresh issues surrounding the accounting practices and standards tied to cryptocurrency for the company’s holding of crypto-assets. Taken together, the observed findings obtained from the test of the second hypothesis show that there is no significant relationship with the company’s stock returns while a company holds cryptocurrency positions. This result can be interpreted to determine whether the general investors take a more positive or negative attitude towards companies involved in cryptocurrency holding. Crucially, research findings unveil that cryptocurrency holdings have a significant impact on a company's liabilities. Our empirical evidence could be beneficial to public authorities and firms in decision- making situations related to cryptocurrency holdings of companies.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: G10, G18, M14, M41.\u0000Keywords: Cryptocurrency accounting reports, Crypto-asset holdings, Firm value.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"225 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140720042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sentiment-Driven Exchange Rate Forecasting: Integrating Twitter Analysis with Economic Indicators","authors":"Kazım Berk Küçüklerli, Veysel Ulusoy","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1434","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This study focuses on predicting the USD/TL exchange rate by integrating sentiment analysis from Twitter with traditional economic indicators. With the dynamic nature of global finance, accurate exchange rate forecasting is crucial for financial planning and risk management. While economic indicators have traditionally been used for this purpose, the increasing influence of public sentiment, particularly on digital platforms like Twitter, has prompted the exploration of sentiment analysis as a complementary tool. Our research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with economic indicators in predicting the USD/TL exchange rate. We employ machine learning techniques, including LSTM Neural Network, xgboost, and RNN, to analyze Twitter data containing keywords related to the Turkish economy alongside TL/USD exchange rate data. Our findings demonstrate that integrating sentiment analysis from Twitter enhances the predictive accuracy of exchange rate movements. This study contributes to the evolving landscape of financial forecasting by highlighting the significance of sentiment analysis in exchange rate prediction and providing insights into its potential applications in financial decision-making processes.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: C53, F31, E60.\u0000Keywords: Twitter narratives, LSTM, XGBoost, RNN, USD/TL FX rate, Narrative economics.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"53 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140736503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fed’s Dual Mandate: Maximum Employment and Price Stability","authors":"Ioannis N. Kallianiotis","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1433","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000In this paper, we look at the dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment) as policy objectives of the central bank (the Fed) and we test mostly the effectiveness of policy instruments on these two ultimate objectives. We start from 1978 to 2008 and then, from 2009 (the year of major changes in monetary policy) to present to measure statistically the capability of the Fed to improve the economy’s cycle and citizens’ wellbeing. OLS and VAR models and at the end some measurements of correlations and causality are used to determine the effectiveness of the policy tools on the two objective variables, price and unemployment. The empirical results show that prices have been drastically affected (inflation and bubbles) by this expansionary monetary policy for so many years, but employment has not been improved. In general, our public policies have generated a social cost that exceeds the social benefits.\u0000 \u0000JEL classification numbers: E52, E58, E4, E44, C52, D6.\u0000Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banks and Their Policies, Money and Interest Rates, Financial Markets and the Macro-economy, Model Evaluation and Testing, Social Welfare.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"11 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140745569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Causality between Analysts’ Recommendations and Corporate M&As","authors":"Ching-Chih Wu, Tung-Hsiao Yang","doi":"10.47260/jafb/1432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1432","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000\u0000This study examines the role of analysts' recommendations in mergers and acquisitions (M&As), focusing on their impact on payment methods and acquirers' long-term performance. The findings reveal that acquirers with strong buy or buy recommendations are more likely to use 100% stock payment, consistent with the overvaluation hypothesis. Conversely, those with strong sell or sell recommendations tend to prefer cash payment. Notably, acquirers with higher recommendation scores exhibit better long-term market performance. This finding suggests that analysts' recommendations before M&A announcements do not fully incorporate the deal's potential impact on long-term value creation. Moreover, acquirers with buy recommendations experience significantly lower long-term returns, highlighting the disconnect between analysts' recommendations and long-term performance. These findings contribute to understanding the information content and limitations of analysts' recommendations in the M&A context.\u0000\u0000JEL classification numbers: G34, G24, G14.\u0000Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions, Analysts' recommendations, Payment methods, Information quality, Overvaluation hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":330012,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Finance & Banking","volume":"65 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140746859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}