THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)最新文献

{"title":"A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel room occupancy","authors":"N. M. Desa, Muzhaffar Bin Mohamad Marzuki","doi":"10.1063/1.5121114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121114","url":null,"abstract":"There are a few types of forecasting categories that have been used such as hotel room occupancy forecast. Implementation of this forecasting category can be crucial because it leads to an efficient planning for, and decision making to all the hotel departments. Thus, this study aims to compare the best forecasting method for hotel room occupancy. Therefore, Seasonal Naive, Seasonal Holt Winter’s Method and ARIMA are going to be implemented in order to determine which forecasting method is most suitable to forecast hotel room occupancy by using secondary data from year 2012 until 2017. The selection of best method is based on three error measurements which are root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE). From the analysis conducted, the results show the best method to be implemented is the Seasonal Holt Winter’s Multiplicative method since it shows the lowest error for all three measurements. Furthermore, the forecast of future hotel room occupancy for year 2018 shows similar pattern as previous years. In comparing 2018 future occupancy with 2017 actual occupancy, there are some increment and decrement in hotel room occupancy for various months.There are a few types of forecasting categories that have been used such as hotel room occupancy forecast. Implementation of this forecasting category can be crucial because it leads to an efficient planning for, and decision making to all the hotel departments. Thus, this study aims to compare the best forecasting method for hotel room occupancy. Therefore, Seasonal Naive, Seasonal Holt Winter’s Method and ARIMA are going to be implemented in order to determine which forecasting method is most suitable to forecast hotel room occupancy by using secondary data from year 2012 until 2017. The selection of best method is based on three error measurements which are root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE). From the analysis conducted, the results show the best method to be implemented is the Seasonal Holt Winter’s Multiplicative method since it shows the lowest error for all three measurements. Furthermore, the forecast of future hotel room occupancy fo...","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127838290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mangrove attribute preferences for environmental conservation: Evident from choice modeling approach","authors":"W. Ibrahim, Fatihah Mohd, S. Ismail, W. Endut, Roseliza Mat Alipiah","doi":"10.1063/1.5121058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121058","url":null,"abstract":"Mangrove forest provides a variety of service both ecologically and economically. But they are experiencing severe threats, with high annualized shrinkage rates in almost all countries. This situation emphasizes the decision maker to make efficient decision making on continuous sustainability of conservation programs by understanding the local community preferences of the mangrove attribute. To obtain this objective, this paper applies the choice modeling (CM) experiment method, which is the one of the preferred non-market valuation technique. CM is creating strong interest among researchers because of very flexible in dealing with complex models of \"trade-offs\" between attributes, so that makes it possible to model the community choices on selected mangrove attribute. To perform this technique, a series of choice card were distributed to 526 respondents from three areas around Setiu Wetlands (SW), Terengganu, Malaysia using face to face survey method. The result from multinomial logit model showed that the six attribute selected for the environmental conservation was significantly influenced community preferences. The results of this study indicate that the forest mangrove area (MANREA), water quality (WATERQ) and the price of mangrove sapling tree (PRICE) have the expected sign with higher marginality value for concerted efforts for sustainable management of the mangrove forest. The finding indicates that local communities are likely to support mangrove conservation management initiatives that promote sustainable use of the mangrove resources.Mangrove forest provides a variety of service both ecologically and economically. But they are experiencing severe threats, with high annualized shrinkage rates in almost all countries. This situation emphasizes the decision maker to make efficient decision making on continuous sustainability of conservation programs by understanding the local community preferences of the mangrove attribute. To obtain this objective, this paper applies the choice modeling (CM) experiment method, which is the one of the preferred non-market valuation technique. CM is creating strong interest among researchers because of very flexible in dealing with complex models of \"trade-offs\" between attributes, so that makes it possible to model the community choices on selected mangrove attribute. To perform this technique, a series of choice card were distributed to 526 respondents from three areas around Setiu Wetlands (SW), Terengganu, Malaysia using face to face survey method. The result from multinomial logit model showed that t...","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"178 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126071752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting a state gross domestic product with logistic growth model","authors":"R. Rahim, Mohd Aliff Zikri","doi":"10.1063/1.5121067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121067","url":null,"abstract":"Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. This study models the GDP data of the state of Johor for year 2005-2016. A mathematical model is developed for the state GDP data using Logistic Growth model. The long-term equilibrium value for GDP were estimated using data for period 2005-2016 with different parameter values. The future GDP for the state were predicted using the suitable parameter value.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. This study models the GDP data of the state of Johor for year 2005-2016. A mathematical model is developed for the state GDP data using Logistic Growth model. The long-term equilibrium value for GDP were estimated using data for period 2005-2016 with different parameter values. The future GDP for the state were predicted using the suitable parameter value.","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125161919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A proposed java algorithm for default-recovery rate model","authors":"N. M. Yusof, Aini Hayati Anuar, Norsyaheeda Natasya Isa, Siti Hajar Mohd Mushar, M. L. Sapini","doi":"10.1063/1.5121103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121103","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a Proposed Java Algorithm for the Default-Recovery Rates (DRR) Model. The DRR Model is the extension to the Black-Scholes-Merton Model focusing on calculating the default and re...","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133388681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A proposed framework in assessing health risks associated with jogging using the dynamics of vital signs","authors":"M. Decena, P. Aguila, Angela D. R. Estipular, Daniella Nicole C. Hernando","doi":"10.1063/1.5121033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121033","url":null,"abstract":"Over the years, several studies have been done on the benefits of jogging. Other than physical fitness, individuals who stay active in this sport get various forms of benefits. In fact, several studies have proven that jogging among men and women increase life expectancy. However, irregularities and varying frequencies in engaging in this form of physical activity may increase health risks. The study introduces a mathematical framework in assessing health risks associated in a strenuous physical activity such as jogging by testing for chaos in human vital signs. Dynamic physiological states of a jogger are interpreted whether chaotic or non-chaotic using Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) test for chaos. Likewise, demographic variables such as age and gender are correlated to the occurrence of chaotic patterns using the Chi-Square Test for Independence which are used as a guide in evaluation of health risks derived from the frequency of jogging. This framework aims to provide guidelines in the reduction of risks associated to irregularities in jogging patterns. Based on results, whether a jogger is an early rise or a late rise, their vital signs indicate chaotic behavior. Whether a jogger is a female or male and of different age range, chaotic properties of their vital signs are confirmed through jogging patterns. Though a chaotic pattern is consistently exhibited throughout the jogging condition, the degree of chaos varies as reflected in changing values of LLE over the time interval.Over the years, several studies have been done on the benefits of jogging. Other than physical fitness, individuals who stay active in this sport get various forms of benefits. In fact, several studies have proven that jogging among men and women increase life expectancy. However, irregularities and varying frequencies in engaging in this form of physical activity may increase health risks. The study introduces a mathematical framework in assessing health risks associated in a strenuous physical activity such as jogging by testing for chaos in human vital signs. Dynamic physiological states of a jogger are interpreted whether chaotic or non-chaotic using Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) test for chaos. Likewise, demographic variables such as age and gender are correlated to the occurrence of chaotic patterns using the Chi-Square Test for Independence which are used as a guide in evaluation of health risks derived from the frequency of jogging. This framework aims to provide guidelines in the reduction of r...","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115238458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"User acceptance testing (UAT) for the development and evaluation of an automated learning style detection system","authors":"Fatihah Mohd, Wan Fatin Fatihah Yahya, M. Jalil, Suryani Ismail, N. M. M. Noor, Mohamad Nor Hasan","doi":"10.1063/1.5121098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121098","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to determine the acceptable level of a proposed automated learning style detection system. This system was tested among teachers in schools based on a construct presented by the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) Model. A prototype application named VAKLeS was developed in order to evaluate user acceptance among the respondents. A combination of NeatBeans, Java, and MySQL was used to implement the learning style-based application to present the appropriate subject matter through content or activity, format, and platform type. VAKLeS was organized into two modules: the learning style module (student module) and decision support module (teacher module). The teacher acts as the decision maker while the student is the system user. The learning style of the user is evaluated based on his or her behavior when using the application. The two modules interact together to predict the user learning style. User testing was conducted for teachers to evaluate the performance of the system in detecting user learning style. VAKLeS was evaluated based on user acceptance testing (UAT). A set of questionnaires was distributed to ten respondents, who are domain expert in pre-school teaching. The questionnaire has 26 variables consisting of four core evaluation elements: performance expectations (nine variables), effort expectancy (seven variables), social influence (six variables), and facilitating conditions (three variables). These items are related to the usage of VAKLeS and are rated based on a seven-point Likert Scale. The finding of user acceptance was based on the average score of Strongly disagree (1) and Strongly agree (7). The findings of VAKLeS testing showed that the four elements evaluated was positive significantly with 5.87 for performance expectancy, 5.93 for effort expectancy, 6.03 for social influence, and 5.90 for facilitating condition. The finding of the UAT among the domain expert indicates that the proposed VAKLeS is acceptable and can be applied as an automated system for detecting VAK learning style based on the student’s behavioral pattern. Furthermore, the finding of this study also reveals that the proposed system, VAKLeS, significantly improved the ability of teachers to detect the learning style of their students.The purpose of this study is to determine the acceptable level of a proposed automated learning style detection system. This system was tested among teachers in schools based on a construct presented by the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) Model. A prototype application named VAKLeS was developed in order to evaluate user acceptance among the respondents. A combination of NeatBeans, Java, and MySQL was used to implement the learning style-based application to present the appropriate subject matter through content or activity, format, and platform type. VAKLeS was organized into two modules: the learning style module (student module) and decision supp","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122469813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal diet selection for university students using integer linear programming","authors":"Norazura Ahmad, Nurul Syazwanie Abdullah Sani, Noorsyazmira Mohamed Zaidi","doi":"10.1063/1.5121081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121081","url":null,"abstract":"The human diet selection is conducted by choosing the appropriate food items that fulfil the nutritional requirements into the diet formulation. This paper discusses the application of integer linear programming (ILP) to develop the mathematical model of diet selection for students in Universiti Utara Malaysia. The developed model is used to solve the diet problem of the students with lowest possible cost. The ILP model is formulated to select suitable food items, which seeks to minimize the costs under conditions of meeting desired nutrient quantities for a healthy student. The optimal result obtained from the ILP model revealed that the minimum cost of a healthy diet is RM10.50 per day.The human diet selection is conducted by choosing the appropriate food items that fulfil the nutritional requirements into the diet formulation. This paper discusses the application of integer linear programming (ILP) to develop the mathematical model of diet selection for students in Universiti Utara Malaysia. The developed model is used to solve the diet problem of the students with lowest possible cost. The ILP model is formulated to select suitable food items, which seeks to minimize the costs under conditions of meeting desired nutrient quantities for a healthy student. The optimal result obtained from the ILP model revealed that the minimum cost of a healthy diet is RM10.50 per day.","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123312326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining features and critical success factors of shared services in higher learning institutions","authors":"J. Jais, Prashalini Naidu Raventhran","doi":"10.1063/1.5121119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121119","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121879823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The application of system thinking in solving complex problem: A case study of dengue transmission control policy","authors":"N. Z. Abidin, Ibnu Affan Jaafar, Azatuliffah Alwi","doi":"10.1063/1.5121080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121080","url":null,"abstract":"System thinking is a potential approach in solving a complex problems that is hard to solve using a conventional approach. At its core, systems thinking is aimed at seeing how things are connected to each other within the notion of a whole entity. This paper explains the use of system thinking in the dengue problem. As we know, the rapid growth of the dengue virus had led to a ride in public concern to the increase in cost burden, reported death and hospitalization cases. Therefore, providing an effective dengue control strategy is essential for reducing the dengue infected people in a cost effective manner. This paper discusses how a system thinking tool, named causal loop diagram tool was applied to the dengue control policy issue. A causal loop diagram is a development that contains major variables, cause-effect relations and feedback loops in dengue transmission, and a step by step guideline for the causal loop diagram development is provided.System thinking is a potential approach in solving a complex problems that is hard to solve using a conventional approach. At its core, systems thinking is aimed at seeing how things are connected to each other within the notion of a whole entity. This paper explains the use of system thinking in the dengue problem. As we know, the rapid growth of the dengue virus had led to a ride in public concern to the increase in cost burden, reported death and hospitalization cases. Therefore, providing an effective dengue control strategy is essential for reducing the dengue infected people in a cost effective manner. This paper discusses how a system thinking tool, named causal loop diagram tool was applied to the dengue control policy issue. A causal loop diagram is a development that contains major variables, cause-effect relations and feedback loops in dengue transmission, and a step by step guideline for the causal loop diagram development is provided.","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125957118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Solving heat equations using extended B-spline alternating group explicit","authors":"Nur Aliah Izzati Rosman, N. Hamid, Ahmad Abd. Majid, A. Ismail","doi":"10.1063/1.5121070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5121070","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, Extended B-Spline Alternating Group Explicit (ExtBSPAGE) iterative method is proposed to solve one- dimensional diffusion equation which is the heat conduction equation. The Alternating Group Explicit (AGE) iterative method is derived from the cubic Extended B-Spline collocation technique. We only consider the stationary case with odd number of points with even number of interval for both time and space dimension. The comparison will be made based on AGE, Cubic B-Spline Alternating Group Explicit (BSPAGE), ExtBSPAGE iterative method and the exact solution.In this paper, Extended B-Spline Alternating Group Explicit (ExtBSPAGE) iterative method is proposed to solve one- dimensional diffusion equation which is the heat conduction equation. The Alternating Group Explicit (AGE) iterative method is derived from the cubic Extended B-Spline collocation technique. We only consider the stationary case with odd number of points with even number of interval for both time and space dimension. The comparison will be made based on AGE, Cubic B-Spline Alternating Group Explicit (BSPAGE), ExtBSPAGE iterative method and the exact solution.","PeriodicalId":325925,"journal":{"name":"THE 4TH INNOVATION AND ANALYTICS CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION (IACE 2019)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128874305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}