Economics and Finance in Indonesia最新文献

{"title":"Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast","authors":"Faisal Rachman","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I2.539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I2.539","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates whether following Bank Indonesia’s explicit inflation targets (forward-looking) is a more accurate method of predicting inflation rate in Indonesia than forecast methods utilizing past information of macroeconomic data (backward-looking). The analysis is conducted by performing naive, univariate, and multivariate time-series models with an out-of-sample forecast evaluation period of January 2014–December 2016. It is found that the backward-looking approach outperforms the forward-looking approach at all forecast horizons, indicating that Bank Indonesia still does not succeed to anchor inflation expectation towards the desired level.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"98-120"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Portfolio Flows into Indonesia: Push or Pull?","authors":"C. Nuryakin, E. Yuan, I. P. Arsana","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I2.550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I2.550","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the dynamic of the portfolio flows into Indonesia. The result of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model reveals that push factors is more dominant than pull factors in explaining portfolio flows into Indonesia. Portfolio flows into Indonesia are positively correlated with regional’s stock market performance and negatively correlated to the federal funds rate. On the pull factors, domestic risk (the Credit Default Swap spread) is more dominant than domestic return (the BI rate) in explaining the flows.Thus, it is important for authorities to have more focus on domestic risk–relative to rate of return–in managing portfolio flows. In addition, the negative impact of the lagged Indonesia stock market index to the capital flowsindicates a counter cyclical investment behavior of global investors.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"121-126"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pengentasan Kemiskinan Melalui Pembangunan Jaringan Ekonomi Perdesaan (Sebagai Suatu Strategi)","authors":"Prijono Tjiptoherijanto","doi":"10.22146/JP.11583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22146/JP.11583","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents strategies taken by the office of the Minister of Population to alleviate poverty in villages not eligible for IDT (Inpres Desa Tertinggal-Poor Villages Grant). These strategis which is complententory to the IDT program, operates at the micro level as opposed to the IDT program which operates at the macro level. The strategies is built an assumption that hidden unemployment, underemployment and low quality of human resources are the salient features of the rural areas. In part, these drawback were caused by lack of economic network, especially in marketing of rural products, and some previous policies which were urban biased. Strategies taken, is to build economic tietworking between and amongst rural people.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"27 1","pages":"457-480"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68039082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Middle Class and Democracy: An Assessment on the 2014 Indonesian’s Presidential Election","authors":"M. Sambodo","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I1.519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I1.519","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to assess the role of middle class in Indonesia’s democracy, with the particular focus of the last Indonesian Presidential election. This study uses econometric analyses to assess preferences of middle class in presidential election by exploring data at district/city and provincial. The main finding in this study strongly suggests that religious and personality are still important elements under the race of Indonesia president. This study also found that different group of middle class has different attitudes in selecting the presidential candidate and the upper group of middle class is more likely to select Joko Widodo. Finally, a fragile middle class and a relatively high number of abstainers could be a barrier toward more substantive democracy. Abstrak Makalah ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran kelompok kelas menengah dalam proses demokrasi di Indonesia, secara khusus peran mereka difokuskan pada hasil pemilihan presiden yang terakhir. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrik untuk mengalisis preferensi kelompok kelas menengah dalam memilih calon presiden, dengan melakukan eksplorasi data pada tingkat kabupaten/kota dan provinsi. Hasil studi menunjukkan, agama dan personalitas calon presiden menjadi faktor penting dalam pertarungan pemilihan presiden. Studi ini juga menunjukkan, berbagai kelompok dalam kelas menengah memiliki preferensi yang berbeda dalam memilih kandidat presiden dan kelompok kelas menengah atas cenderung memilih Joko Widodo. Akhirnya, kelas menengah yang rentan dan tingginya kelompok yang abstain, akan menjadi hambatan untuk menuju demokrasi yang lebih substantif. Kata kunci: Kelas Menengah; Demokrasi; Pemilihan Presiden; Indonesia JEL classifications: A12; C33","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What are the Challenges in Designing An Effective Personal Income Tax System","authors":"Raeni Raeni, Astika Sari","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I1.523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I1.523","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to examine the challenges of designing individual’s income tax systems in general and particularly to observe taxpayers’ behaviour in developing countries. This study used case study approach to gain in depth understanding type of taxpayers’ attitude towards personal income tax systems. Based on the analyses, tax behaviour, which comprises the perception of fairness and motivation to comply, attracts urgent challenges in designing effective tax on personal income in every country and mainly underdeveloped countries. Every human being in each country has their social pattern towards tax policy. When the individual perception of fairness is significant, it will harmonise the ’client and service approach’ between taxpayers and governments. This condition would influence tax morale of individuals to comply with the policy and achieve high compliance rate. Therefore, it has argued that personal view of fairness and their motivation to comply with tax systems are becoming vital challenges in designing the tax policy on individual income. Abstrak Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi tantangan-tantangan yang dihadapi dalam merancang sistem perpajakan untuk wajib pajak orang pribadi dan secara khusus menganalisa perilaku wajib pajak di negara-negara berkembang. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan studi literatur untuk mendapatkan secara mendalam jenis perilaku wajib pajak penghasilan orang pribadi. Berdasarkan hasil analisis terkait perilaku pajak, yang terdiri dari persepsi keadilan dan motivasi untuk mematuhi memberikan tantangan tersendiri dalam merancang pajak yang berlaku atas penghasilan pribadi di setiap negara dan terutama negara-negara berkembang. Setiap individu memiliki pola yang berbeda ketika berinteraksi terhadap kebijakan pajak. Ketika persepsi individu terhadap keadilan adalah signifikan, hal itu akan menyelaraskan pendekatan ’client and service’ antara pembayar pajak dan pemerintah. Kondisi ini akan memengaruhi semangat individu untuk mematuhi kebijakan dan mencapai tingkat kepatuhan yang tinggi. Oleh karena itu, asumsi bahwa pandangan individu terhadap keadilan dan motivasi untuk mematuhi sistem pajak menjadi tantangan penting dalam merancang kebijakan terhadap wajib pajak orang pribadi. Kata kunci: Pajak Penghasilan Orang Pribadi; Prinsip Keadilan; Moral Wajib Pajak JEL classifications: E63","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"59-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Integration in ASEAN-5","authors":"Laura Grace Gabriella, R. Suryanarayana, Vania Esady","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I1.522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I1.522","url":null,"abstract":"The financial integration in South East Asia has varied over time. This paper focuses on three periods: before, during, and after the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper finds that ASEAN-5 countries have indeed taken a step towards financial integration. While we do not observe any (cointegrating) long-run relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries, we find that there has been a significant increase in the volatility spillovers between them. This is particularly true in the recovery period following the global financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"44-58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determination of Competition Conventional Bank in Banking Industry in Indonesia","authors":"C. G. Qori’ah, M. Ridwan, A. Wardhono, Ika Nurjannah","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I1.520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I1.520","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to determine the level of concentration and competition behavior of conventional commercial banks in the national banking industry. This study focuses on descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using panel data regression for 9 conventional commercial banks during 2003–2014. Results of eclectic analysis are supposed that behavior of banks is less competitive due to high levels of concentration in the banking industry. While the results of panel data regression show that the variables of bank interest expense, operating expense, other operating incomes and variable of loanable funds significantly affect the income of conventional banks.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"17-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Lagging-Region Status on District Poverty in Indonesia","authors":"Rus’an Nasrudin","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V62I1.521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V62I1.521","url":null,"abstract":"Reducing imbalances of development progress across regions is one of important policy agenda Indonesia. This paper examines the impact of policy that assign lagging-region status namely status daerah tertinggal (DT) on poverty rate and poverty gap among districts in Indonesia in the two period of SBY presidency. The panel data fixed effect combined with propensity score matching is used to tackle the selection bias due to the nature of the policy, unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias. The results show that the lagging-region status that was aimed to mainstream central and district’s budget toward lagging regions statistically significant reduces poverty rate and poverty gap in the period. The DT status, on average is associated with 0.75 percentage point of reduction in the poverty rate and 7% reduction in the poverty gap index.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"62 1","pages":"30-43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia","authors":"Rulyusa Pratikto, M. Ikhsan, B. Mahi","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V61I3.511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V61I3.511","url":null,"abstract":"The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"28 1","pages":"180-195"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of Firm Innovation in Indonesia: The Role of Institutions and Access to Finance","authors":"Edo Mahendra, U. Zuhdi, R. Muyanto","doi":"10.7454/EFI.V61I3.512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7454/EFI.V61I3.512","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the determinants of firm innovation in Indonesia. Using quality of local regulations index constructed by the Indonesia’s Regional Autonomy Watch (KPPOD) as measure of institutions, We found that better institutional quality at the local level was associated with more innovation and that firms experiencing major obstacle in access to finance were less likely to innovate. Access to finance is more critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) whereas institutional quality is more important for large firms. The positive impact of better institutions on innovation is asymmetrically distributed. Better local institutional quality disproportionately benefited non-constrained firms.","PeriodicalId":31064,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Finance in Indonesia","volume":"32 1","pages":"149-179"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71340261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}