{"title":"Policy and Corporate Responses to Climate Change: Personal Recollections - Working Paper Series No. 9","authors":"M. Jefferson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1561584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1561584","url":null,"abstract":"Paper covers personal experiences relating to the relevant science, publications, negotiations, policies, measures, business responses, and sleight-of-hand which has gone around the author over many years.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124057057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Azerbaijan Economic Trends","authors":"G. Ibadoghlu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3110212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3110212","url":null,"abstract":"The new issue of informational and analytical bulletin “Azerbaijan Economic Trends” has been published, where the dynamics, qualitative changes and tendencies that have taken place in the country’s economy during the year 2009 are analyzed. Official statistical data and ERC alternative calculation serves as the initial source of information. The review consists of four thematical chapters. The first chapter considers the main macroeconomic indicators: economic growth, investments into the economy, as well as the situation in the foreign trade. The second chapter analyzes the revenue and expense in the government budget, monetary policy of the Central Bank, banking sector, insurance market, stock market and exchange rate policy. The third chapter describes the tendencies and issues in the development of industry and agricultural sector. The forth chapter is devoted to the forecasts in state budget and inflation rate for 2010. The publication is prepared for wide range of users: employees of government agencies, business, scientific research institutes and centers, public and international organizations, embassies’ staff, university professors and students, other interested individuals. This bulletin is made possible by the support of the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs SECO within the framework of “Calculation of alternative inflations level and development of models” implemented by Economic Research Center (ERC). The content of this bulletin are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily the views of SECO or the Switzerland Government","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122384731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Labor Market Segmentation in Colombia Using Markov Chains","authors":"J. Mora","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1616361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1616361","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses regional labor segmentation using stochastic Markov chains. We present a formal model and derive preliminary results using the evolution of wages in Colombian urban areas. The results show that there was regional labor market segmentation in wages for university graduates during the period from 1993 to 2000, and corroborate the existence of structural changes in wages during the nineteen nineties.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114891772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade During the Global Financial Crisis","authors":"D. Chor, Kalina B. Manova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1502911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1502911","url":null,"abstract":"We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123097847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: The Case of Opec","authors":"A. Aflatooni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1476839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1476839","url":null,"abstract":"This paper has studied the relationship between oil price and exchange rate in OPEC members. In this paper, we investigate the long-run relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates by using monthly panel of seven countries of OPEC members from 2000:01 to 2007:12. We first test whether or not exchange rates are cointegrated with real oil prices. Stationary and cointegration tests for pooled series obviously have shown the high power of pooled tests for unit root and cointegration. It is shown that real oil prices may have been the dominant source of real exchange rate movements. Finally, the results shown that, there is a long-run linkage between real oil prices and real exchange rates.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132873825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is Monetary Condition Index an Important Indicator for Malaysia?","authors":"W. Poon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1606403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1606403","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the augmented real monetary conditions index (MCI) for Malaysia and evaluates its significance over 1980:1-2004:4 using ARDL cointegration analysis as proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The relative strength of the four monetary policy transmission channels, namely the exchange rate, interest rate, asset price and credit channels are studied. Results reveal evidence of long-run cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants (i.e., the exchange rate, short- and long-term interest rate, and claims on private sector), which implies that exchange rate, interest rate and credit channels are three key transmission mechanisms in the conduct of monetary policy in Malaysia, while asset price channel is the least relevant. Sequentially, what seem to drive changes in the real GDP is the credit channel, followed by the exchange rate channel, and interest rate channels, with short rate relatively potency than the long rate at the margin. Results demonstrate that the policy stance that implemented by the Central Bank of Malaysia are corresponding reasonably well with the movement in MCIs. Specifically, MCI confines to the changes of interest rate constructively.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"704 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126792677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Risk of International Country Relations","authors":"S. Sveshnikov, V. Bocharnikov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1419930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1419930","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131254756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument – Learning from Science and Technology Studies","authors":"P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1409750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1409750","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at contributing to theoretical aspects of Foresight from the perspective of the interdisciplinary body of knowledge that has become known as STS - Science and Technology Studies (c.f. Jasanoff 1994). Drawing in particular on STS insights on the Social Shaping of Technology (SST) we would like to investigate the possibility of Foresight to support policy makers in influencing innovation trajectories according to societal needs. In this paper, we highlight four different modes of policy support Foresight is expected to deliver: Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument fostering innovation capability, Foresight orienting innovation towards societal needs, Foresight as agenda setting process and Foresight a provider of anticipatory intelligence as a base for decision making. From these starting points, we turn to Social Shaping of Technology. Central to SST is the idea that technology co-evolves in a complex interaction with society which is reflected in both the design of individual artefacts and systems, and in the direction or trajectory of innovation programmes. Different routes are available, potentially leading to different technological outcomes. This paper discusses some relevant insights on the character of technologies, as well as their social implications, that are problematised and opened up for enquiry in SST; contingency and constraint of variation, role of expectations and visions, importance of downstream phase of innovation, importance of localisation and insights on steering possibilities for technological trajectories These insights allow us to elaborate one the concepts of Foresight as a process moderator, Foresight as expectation management, provision of anticipatory intelligence and localisation through Foresight.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134276243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Theory of Endogenous Institution and Evidence from an In-Depth Study in Indonesia","authors":"I. Azis, M. M. Wihardja","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1434765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1434765","url":null,"abstract":"We study how endogeneity between welfare and institutions recommends the efficacy of subtle institutional reforms that must be exogenous. We use evidence from a field study conducted in five Indonesian districts, and build a model that illustrates how initial socioeconomic conditions and quality of institutions generate certain institutional attributes, such as a particular level of local capture (that is, gaining of influence over institutions, and hence over policy, by local elites), local leadership and participation. These institutional attributes, which evolve with changing welfare, create self-reinforcing processes in the long run that could be either vicious, virtuous or neutral. The policy question we investigate is how to break a vicious cycle between low welfare and low institutional quality. Reform must be exogenous and multi-dimensional, requiring welfare and institutions to be mutually reinforcing. In the context of post-decentralization Indonesia, any multi-dimensional institutional reform must include not only policies to strengthen local institutions, but also policies to increase welfare","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132938041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Output Growth, Inflation and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: The Predictive Power","authors":"W. Poon, Gee-Kok Tong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1605883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1605883","url":null,"abstract":"Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (Applied Financial Economics, 13, 693-700, 2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan and Singapore) and four crisis experienced emerging markets (Malaysia, India, Korea and Philippines). Results reveal that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, has weak predictor power on stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets is not supported.","PeriodicalId":307125,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics Policy Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131398879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}