Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan最新文献

{"title":"TREN PRODUKSI DAN PERDAGANGAN NEGARA-NEGARA PRODUSEN KOPI TERBESAR DI DUNIA DAN IMPLIKASINYA BAGI INDONESIA","authors":"Muhammad Ibnu, Novi Rosanti","doi":"10.55981/bilp.2022.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.55981/bilp.2022.5","url":null,"abstract":"Sistem produksi dan perdagangan kopi di dunia telah berubah dalam dua dekade terakhir. Namun, jarang studi yang mengaitkan perubahan tersebut secara langsung dengan tren produksi dan perdagangan negara-negara penghasil kopi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) memprediksi tren produksi dan perdagangan di sepuluh negara produsen kopi terbesar di dunia, dan (2) mengidentifikasi jalan (pathway) yang berpotensi meningkatkan keberlanjutan (sustainability) produksi dan perdagangan kopi Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series FAOSTAT (1993 - 2020) yang diproyeksikan 10 tahun (sampai 2030) dengan metode double exponential smoothing. Penelitian ini memprediksi bahwa produksi dan perdagangan kopi dunia akan semakin dinamis. Beberapa negara (seperti Guatemala, Brazil, dan Ethiopia) diprediksi akan memperluas areal kopinya dengan tingkat pertumbuhan yang cukup signifikan, sementara negara lain (seperti Vietnam dan Kolombia) diprediksi akan mengejar pertumbuhan yang tinggi dalam hal nilai ekspor biji kopi olahannya. Selain itu, beberapa negara (seperti Meksiko, Peru, dan Indonesia) diprediksi akan lebih fokus pada konsumsi domestik dalam negerinya. Dinamika tersebut memiliki implikasi pada produksi dan perdagangan kopi Indonesia. Namun, Indonesia secara makro memiliki modal institusional yang relatif baik, yaitu lingkungan pendukung untuk investasi (misalnya dalam hal ukuran pasar, ketersediaan infrastruktur, dan keterbukaan perdagangan) yang berpotensi mendukung keberlanjutan produksi dan perdagangan kopinya.","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133897812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"STRUKTUR PASAR DAN DAYA SAING KARET ALAM INDONESIA DI AMERIKA SERIKAT","authors":"Birka Septy Sembiring, Yusman Syaukat, Hastuti","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.623","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Karet alam Indonesia berperan penting dalam meningkatkan perekonomian nasional melalui ekspor karet alam ke berbagai negara, termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Dalam upaya mengembangkan ekspor karet alamnya, Indonesia perlu melakukan kalkulasi posisi dan daya saing karet alam di antara negara-negara pesaing serta peluang pasarnya ke Amerika Serikat yang memiliki permintaan impor relatif tinggi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis struktur pasar, serta keunggulan komparatif dan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di pasar Amerika Serikat. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 2008-2019 menggunakan metode Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), dan Diamond’s Porter. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa struktur pasar karet alam Indonesia cenderung oligopoli. Dibandingkan dengan negara-negara eksportir lainnya, karet alam Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif di pasar Amerika Serikat. Keunggulan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di Amerika Serikat mengalami penurunan dari posisi lost opportunity pada periode pertama (2008-2011) menjadi retreat pada periode ketiga (2016-2019). Hasil dari Diamond’s Porter menunjukkan bahwa terdapat tujuh faktor keunggulan kompetitif dan tiga faktor kelemahan dalam industri karet alam di Indonesia. \u0000Kata Kunci: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA \u0000Abstract \u0000Indonesian natural rubber plays a significant role in improving the national economy through exports of natural rubber to various countries, including the United States. In an effort to develop its natural rubber exports, Indonesia needs to calculate the position and competitiveness of natural rubber among competing countries and its market opportunities to the United States, which has a relatively high import demand. The purpose of this study is to analyze the market structure, as well as the comparative and competitive advantages of Indonesian natural rubber in the United States market. The analysis was carried out during the period 2008-2019 using the methods Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and Diamond's Porter. The results of the analysis show that the structure of the Indonesian natural rubber market tends to be an oligopoly. Compared to other exporting countries, Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the United States market. The competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber in the US decline over time from the lost opportunity position in the first period (2008-2011) to retreat in the third period (2016-2019). The Diamond's Porter results show that there are seven competitive advantage factors and three weakness factors in Indonesia's natural rubber industry. \u0000Keywords: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA \u0000JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124809139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK","authors":"Najia Helmiah, Nasrudin","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari  IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. \u0000Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. \u0000Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market  \u0000JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"232 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127727005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ECO-LABELING AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: THE CASE OF MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL CERTIFICATION FOR INDONESIA'S SHRIMP POTENTIAL MARKET","authors":"Umi Karomah Yaumidin, Oman Zuas","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.539","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Artikel ini membahas analisis biaya dan manfaat dari Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) untuk ekspor udang putih (Litopenaeus vannamei) dan udang windu (Penaeus monodon) dari Indonesia. Penerapan MSC pada produk perikanan memang tidak wajib, tetapi dapat mempengaruhi kinerja eskpor Indonesia. Perhitungan analisa biaya dan manfaat untuk proyek MSC menggunakan beberapa pilihan yang dihitung ke dalam empat komponen analysis yang terpisah (Proyek, Privat, Efisiensi, dan kelompok penerima manfaat). Dengan menggunakan data tahun 2018 dan jangka waktu investasi selama 20 tahun, kajian ini membandingkan hasil investasi yang menerapkan standard MSC dengan hasil investasi yang tidak menerapkan standard MSC dengan mempertimbangkan hambatan dari biaya perdagangan internasional. Secara keselurahan, studi ini menunjukkan bahwa the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) bersifat konsisten untuk semua pilihan analysis. Studi ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa berdasarkan hasil dari analisis pasar, Amerika Serikat adalah pasar yang menjanjikan bagi produk udang Indonesia yang berlabelkan MSC. Pemerintah Indonesia akan menikmati 13% kenaikan pendapatan dari pajak keuntungan bisnis tersebut, meskipun proyek ini tidak memberikan dampak perubahan kepada tenaga kerja tidak terampil. Oleh karena itu, studi ini merekomendasikan pemerintah Indonesia untuk mempromosikan program MSC untuk perikanan berkelanjutan, terutama bagi peningkatan kinerja eskpor udang Indonesia. \u0000Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Perdagangan, Perikanan Tangkap, Keberlanjutan, Cost-Benefit Analysis \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000This paper discusses the cost and benefits analysis of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) for Indonesia's exports of white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) and tiger prawns (Penaeus monodon). The MSC adoption is voluntary, but it is likely to affect the performance of Indonesia's exports. We use several options applied separately in four components analysis in performing the social cost and benefit analysis (Project, Private, Efficiency, and Referral Group). Using the 2018 data and a 20-year investment period, this study compares the investment results applying the MSC standard with the results without investing in the MSC procedures concerning the trade cost barriers. Overall, the results reveal that the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) are consistent for all options in all feasibility component analyses. It concludes that based on market analysis, the US market is the promising market as a primary export destination for Indonesian shrimp products with MSC label. The government will benefit by 13% from profit taxes, while this project does not affect unskilled labor benefits. Therefore, it recommends that the Indonesian government take more action to promote the MSC program for sustainable fisheries and boost shrimp export performance. \u0000Keywords: Trade Policy, Capture Fisheries, Sustainability, Cost-Benefit Analysis \u0000JEL Classification: F13, Q22, Q56, ","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122961403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"PENGARUH KUOTA EKSPOR TERHADAP HARGA KARET DOMESTIK INDONESIA","authors":"Alfi Nurdina, Harmini, Amzu Rifin","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.609","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme merupakan kebijakan pembatasan kuota ekspor karet alam oleh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Kebijakan ini diduga memengaruhi harga karet alam di tingkat petani. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan kuota ekspor terhadap harga karet alam domestik Indonesia di tingkat petani. Penelitian menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2019 menggunakan Error Correction Model. Dalam jangka panjang, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, konsumsi, produksi dan harga karet alam dunia signifikan. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, dan harga karet alam dunia juga signifikan. Variabel total ekspor dan dummy kebijakan tidak signifikan baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Hal ini diduga karena harga karet alam tidak lagi bergantung pada faktor fundamental tetapi disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal lainnya. Perbaikan diperlukan, termasuk desain kebijakan yang komprehensif, implementasi dan evaluasi teknis yang jelas, serta kolaborasi tambahan dengan produsen karet alam lainnya. Selain itu, sejalan dengan kebijakan pembatasan ekspor, Indonesia perlu mendorong pertumbuhan industri pengolahan karet alam menjadi produk hilir. \u0000Kata Kunci: ECM, Karet Alam, Harga Domestik, AETS \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme is a policy of limiting natural rubber export quotas by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This policy is suspected to affect the price of natural rubber at the farm level. This study aims to analyze the effect of the export quota policy on Indonesia's domestic natural rubber prices at the farm level. The study uses monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 used Error Correction Model. In the long term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rate, consumption, production, and world natural rubber prices are significant. Meanwhile, in the short term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rates, and world price natural rubber were significant. The variable total exports and the policy dummy are not significant both in the long and short term. This is presumably because natural rubber prices no longer depend on fundamental factors but are caused by other external factors. Improvements are needed, including comprehensive policy design, clear technical implementation, and evaluation, as well as additional collaboration with other natural rubber producers. In addition, in line with the export restriction policy, Indonesia needs to encourage the growth of the natural rubber processing industry into downstream products \u0000Keywords: ECM, Natural Rubber, Domestic Price, AETS \u0000JEL Classification: Q17, Q18, Q21","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129683650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN","authors":"Rahmatika Putri, Amzu Rifin, Erwidodo","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.570","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. \u0000Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classifie","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124522988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"IDENTIFIKASI KENDALA PEMBIAYAAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN SISTEM RESI GUDANG DI INDONESIA","authors":"Karmex Siadari, M. Maarif, Bustanul Arifin, Zulkifli Rangkuti","doi":"10.30908/bilp.v15i2.555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.555","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang belum berlangsung sesuai harapan di Indonesia. Hal tersebut menurut beberapa studi karena masih banyak permasalahan penghambat. Studi ini mengidentifikasi kendala pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan melalui wawancara mendalam terhadap responden tertentu yang memiliki pengetahuan atau pengalaman pada pembiayaan komoditas pertanian berbasis sistem resi gudang yang diimplentasikan terhadap komoditas pertanian seperti kopi, lada, beras dan jagung. Data yang dikumpulkan diidentifikasi, dikelompokkan dan diklasifikasikan secara terstruktur di dalam pola berfikir strategis dan dianalisa secara analisa deskriptif. Penelitian ini berhasil menemukan faktor penghambat pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia antara lain: ketidaksesuaian nilai manfaat yang dibangun dengan karakteristik petani di Indonesia khususnya petani kecil; keterbatasan sumber layanan, ketidakcocokan skema dan fitur pembiayaan, harga pembiayaan dan skala ekonomi petani, suplai informasi yang memengaruhi kesadaran pada pembiayaannya. Permasalahan tersebut harus dapat diminimalisasi sehingga meningkatkan aksesibilitas dan kelangsungan pembiayaan sistem SRG pada petani di Indonesia. \u0000Kata kunci: Pembiayaan Komoditas Pertanian, Kendala, Sistem Resi Gudang \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Agricultural commodity financing in the warehouse receipt system has not performed as expected in Indonesia. According to several studies, it is due to many obstacles hindering the system to grow. This study identifies the constraints on agricultural commodities financing on the warehouse receipt system. The research was conducted through in-depth interviews with certain respondents who have knowledge or experience in agricultural commodities financing based on a warehouse receipt system implemented on agricultural commodities such as coffee, pepper, rice, and maize. The collected data are identified, grouped, and classified in a structured manner in the pattern of strategic thinking and analyzed by descriptive analysis. The study succeeded to identify the barriers that hindering agricultural commodities financing in warehouse receipt system to grow in Indonesia: the incompatibility of the value built with the characteristics of agriculture business, especially for small farmers; limited financing sources, incompatibility of financing schemes and features, financing prices and farmer economies of scale and supply of information that affects awareness of financing. These problems must be minimized to encourage the accessibility and continuity of financing on WRS for farmers in Indonesia. \u0000Keywords: Agricultural Commodity Financing, Contraints, Warehouse Receipt System \u0000JEL Classification: D46, F6, F61, F65, Q14","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127031832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TRADE REMEDY TERHADAP EKSPOR COATED PAPER INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMA INTERVENSI","authors":"Diva Amadea, Siskarossa Ika Oktora","doi":"10.30908/BILP.V15I1.454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/BILP.V15I1.454","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan hutan tropis terluas di dunia yang memiliki kekayaan sumber daya hutan dan keanekaragaman hayati di dalamnya. Salah satu komoditas ekspor unggulan Indonesia yang merupakan hasil hutan adalah kertas. Pada periode 2006-2018, volume ekspor kertas ke beberapa negara tujuan utama ekspor menunjukkan tren yang terus menurun termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Penurunan volume ekspor kertas di beberapa negara tersebut terkait dengan masalah yang dihadapi industri kertas Indonesia, yakni pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terkait praktik dumping dan subsidi produk coated paper Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dan besarnya dampak dari pengenaan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan model ARIMA Intervensi. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah volume ekspor kertas (coated paper) bulanan (kg) dari Januari 2006 hingga Desember 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat berpengaruh signifikan menurunkan volume ekspor kertas Indonesia ke negara tersebut.  Dampak pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terhadap produk ekspor coated paper Indonesia langsung dirasakan saat kebijakan diberlakukan yaitu pada bulan Januari 2010. Dampak penurunan terbesar terjadi pada bulan Maret 2010, dengan penurunan sebesar 5.015 ton atau mencapai 91,07%. Dampak negatif dari kebijakan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat berlangsung sepanjang waktu penelitian dan dapat menjadi permanen jika tidak dilakukan intervensi kebijakan. Kebijakan yang direkomendasikan diantaranya adalah penguatan Portal Satu Data Perdagangan sebagai bagian dari penguatan administrasi bukti-bukti khususnya substansi dari sisi hukum untuk membantah tuduhan yang diberikan. Peningkatan performa ekspor coated paper Indonesia juga dapat disiasati dengan mencari pasar ekspor nontradisional.   \u0000Kata Kunci: Trade Remedy, Ekspor Kertas, Model ARIMA Intervensi \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Indonesia is one of the countries with the largest tropical forest in the world, which has a wealth of forest resources and biodiversity. One of the main Indonesia export from forest products is paper. In 2006-2018, the paper volume export to several main export destination countries showed a downward trend, including the United States. The decline in the paper volume export in several countries is related to problems facing the Indonesian paper industry, which imposes a trade remedy policy by the United States regarding dumping practices and subsidies for Indonesian coated paper products. This study aims to analyze the effect and magnitude of the imposition of trade remedy on Indonesian paper exports using the ARIMA Intervention model. The data used in this study is the volume of monthly coated paper exports (kg) from January 2006 to December 2018. The results show that the imposition of a trade remedy policy has a s","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130170018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"EXCHANGE RATES ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS IN ASEAN: THE ROLE OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS","authors":"Defy Oktaviani, Nagendra Shrestha","doi":"10.30908/BILP.V15I1.538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/BILP.V15I1.538","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000Perdebatan tentang pelemahan hubungan antara nilai tukar dan ekspor telah meningkat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dan meningkatnya tren perdagangan terkait rantai nilai global (Global Value Chain/GVC) diasumsikan menjadi sumber melemahnya hubungan di antara keduanya. Dengan menggunakan data spesifik industri manufaktur, studi ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki dampak GVC pada hubungan Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil (Real Effective Exchange Rate/REER) dan ekspor di empat negara ASEAN. Estimasi dilakukan menggunakan regresi Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) untuk periode sampel dari tahun 2009 hingga 2015. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa di Filipina, koefisien elastisitas nilai tukar ekspor dan partisipasi ke GVC tidak signifikan secara statistik. Sebaliknya di Indonesia dan Malaysia, secara rata-rata, integrasi ke GVC dengan berbagai pengukuran akan menurunkan elastisitas ekspor terhadap perubahan REER sekitar 70% sampai 89%. Lebih lanjut, estimasi terhadap data Thailand dan kelompok empat negara ASEAN menunjukkan bahwa partisipasi pada GVC mengubah nilai dan tanda elastisitas ekspor terhadap REER. \u0000Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Rantai Nilai Global \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000The debate on the issue of the disconnected relationship between exchange rates and exports has risen in recent years, with the growing trend of Global Value Chain (GVC)-related trade assumed to be the source of the weakening link between them. By employing manufacturing industry-specific data, this study aims to investigate the impact of GVC on the nexus of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and exports in four ASEAN countries. The estimations are conducted using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) regression for the sample period from 2009 to 2015. The findings of this study suggest that for the Philippines, the coefficients of exchange rate elasticity of export and participation to GVC are not statistically significant. Conversely, in the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, integration to GVC, with various measurements, will reduce the REER elasticity of exports by around 70% to 89% on average. Furthermore, the estimation data on Thailand and a group of four countries implies that the presence of GVC changes both the value and the sign of REER elasticity of exports. \u0000Keywords: Export, Exchange Rates, Global Value Chain \u0000JEL Classification: F14, F15, F31","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130036291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DAMPAK PERUBAHAN PAJAK IMPOR INDIA DAN KAPASITAS PRODUKSI INDUSTRI HILIR MINYAK SAWIT MENTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP DAYA SAING DAN PENERIMAAN DEVISA INDONESIA","authors":"Novindra, B. M. Sinaga, S. Hartoyo, Erwidodo","doi":"10.30908/BILP.V15I1.415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30908/BILP.V15I1.415","url":null,"abstract":"Abstrak \u0000India meningkatkan pajak impor CPO menyebabkan ekspor CPO Indonesia turun sehingga penerimaan devisa dari ekspor CPO juga menurun. Indonesia seharusnya tidak terus bergantung pada devisa dari ekspor CPO, apalagi Indonesia masih mengimpor produk turunan CPO. Indonesia harus terus menumbuhkembangkan industri hilir CPO yang lebih besar menghasilkan nilai tambah dan devisa. Oleh karena itu, perlu kebijakan pemerintah yang tepat guna mendukung hilirisasi industri CPO. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor CPO India; harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India; harga domestik CPO dan permintaan CPO oleh industri minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun; dan (2) mengevaluasi dampak peningkatan pajak impor CPO India dan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO terhadap daya saing ekspor CPO Indonesia-Malaysia, minyak goreng sawit, margarin dan sabun Indonesia serta penerimaan devisa ekspor CPO, minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun Indonesia periode 2015-2017. Artikel ini merupakan bagian dari penelitian tentang penawaran dan permintaan minyak sawit dan produk turunan yang menggunakan model ekonometrika yaitu: sistem persamaan simultan dinamis. Peningkatan harga CPO dunia akan berpengaruh besar terhadap harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India. Peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO akan berpengaruh besar terhadap permintaan CPO dan produksi produk turunannya. Untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan nilai penerimaan devisa ekspor produk turunan CPO Indonesia, pada kondisi India atau negara importir utama lainnya meningkatan pajak impor CPO maka pemerintah perlu memfasilitasi peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO dan produksi produk turunan CPO di Indonesia. \u0000Kata Kunci: Pajak Impor CPO, Permintaan CPO, Devisa, Ekonometrika, Simulasi \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000India increased the CPO import tax rate causing Indonesia's CPO exports to fall so that foreign exchange revenues from CPO exports also declined. Indonesia should not continue to depend on these, especially since Indonesia still imports CPO-derived products. Indonesia must continue to develop CPO downstream industries that larger producing added value and foreign exchange revenues. The right government policies are needed to support development the CPO downstreaming industries. This article aims to: (1) analyze the factors affecting Indian CPO imports; Indonesian CPO export prices to India; CPO domestic prices and CPO demand by the palm cooking oil, margarine, and soap industries; and (2) evaluating the impact of an increase in Indian CPO import tax rate and production capacity of CPO downstream industries on the competitiveness of Indonesia-Malaysia CPO exports, Indonesian exports of palm cooking oil, margarine and soap as well as Indonesian foreign exchange revenues in 2015-2017 period. This article is part of a research on the supply and demand of palm oil and its derivatives using the econometric model: dynamic simultaneous equation systems. The incre","PeriodicalId":300100,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125396811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}