Decision-WashingtonPub Date : 2024-04-01Epub Date: 2023-06-29DOI: 10.1037/dec0000219
G W Story, Z Kurth-Nelson, M Moutoussis, K Iigaya, G-J Will, T U Hauser, B Blain, I Vlaev, R J Dolan
{"title":"Discounting Future Reward in an Uncertain World.","authors":"G W Story, Z Kurth-Nelson, M Moutoussis, K Iigaya, G-J Will, T U Hauser, B Blain, I Vlaev, R J Dolan","doi":"10.1037/dec0000219","DOIUrl":"10.1037/dec0000219","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Humans discount delayed relative to more immediate reward. A plausible explanation is that impatience arises partly from uncertainty, or risk, implicit in delayed reward. Existing theories of discounting-as-risk focus on a probability that delayed reward will not materialize. By contrast, we examine how uncertainty in the magnitude of delayed reward contributes to delay discounting. We propose a model wherein reward is discounted proportional to the rate of random change in its magnitude across time, termed <i>volatility</i>. We find evidence to support this model across three experiments (total <i>N</i> = 158). First, using a task where participants chose when to sell products, whose price dynamics they previously learned, we show discounting increases in line with price volatility. Second, we show that this effect pertains over naturalistic delays of up to 4 months. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we observe a volatility-dependent decrease in functional hippocampal-prefrontal coupling during intertemporal choice. Third, we replicate these effects in a larger online sample, finding that volatility discounting within each task correlates with baseline discounting outside of the task. We conclude that delay discounting partly reflects time-dependent uncertainty about reward magnitude, that is volatility. Our model captures how discounting adapts to volatility, thereby partly accounting for individual differences in impatience. Our imaging findings suggest a putative mechanism whereby uncertainty reduces prospective simulation of future outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":"1 1","pages":"255-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11949085/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41740821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to Lee and Holyoak (2023).","authors":"","doi":"10.1037/dec0000222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000222","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46978403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Huizenga, J. Zadelaar, A. V. van Duijvenvoorde, Brenda R. J. Jansen, Bernd Figner, J. A. Agelink van Rentergem
{"title":"Differential framing effects: 11 more ways to study them.","authors":"H. Huizenga, J. Zadelaar, A. V. van Duijvenvoorde, Brenda R. J. Jansen, Bernd Figner, J. A. Agelink van Rentergem","doi":"10.1037/dec0000216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000216","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47350013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Subjective equivalence: A basic requirement for strict framing effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023).","authors":"D. Mandel","doi":"10.1037/dec0000206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000206","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45431427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Models of risky choice across ages, frames, and individuals: The fuzzy frontier.","authors":"V. Reyna","doi":"10.1037/dec0000209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000209","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43441036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Supplemental Material for Discounting Future Reward in an Uncertain World","authors":"","doi":"10.1037/dec0000219.supp","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000219.supp","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47115044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anna Walaszczyk, Aleksandra Kowalska, Iwona Staniec
{"title":"A survey on willingness-to-pay for food quality and safety cues on packaging of meat: a case of Poland","authors":"Anna Walaszczyk, Aleksandra Kowalska, Iwona Staniec","doi":"10.1007/s40622-023-00352-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40622-023-00352-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":"50 1","pages":"233 - 249"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43719990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The determinants of board size in Italian State-owned enterprises operating in water industry","authors":"Cristina Cersosimo","doi":"10.1007/s40622-023-00347-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40622-023-00347-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":"50 1","pages":"169 - 182"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49394185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Implications of (un)awareness for decision-making in strategic interaction: another take on the Prisoner’s dilemma","authors":"Katarina Kostelić","doi":"10.1007/s40622-023-00354-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40622-023-00354-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":"50 1","pages":"251-268"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44968096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do coopetition and cohesion of business groups stimulate their innovation performance?","authors":"W. Mierzejewska, M. Aluchna, Emilia Tomczyk","doi":"10.1007/s40622-023-00346-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40622-023-00346-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":29935,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Washington","volume":"50 1","pages":"153 - 168"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47263260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}