International Studies of Economics最新文献

{"title":"“One Belt One Road” and women development","authors":"Mingying Zhu,&nbsp;Zhiren Hu","doi":"10.1002/ise3.50","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ise3.50","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Women have become “the source of prosperity and vitality” through their active participation in national economic development. This paper provides the first study to explore the impact of the “One Belt One Road” initiative (Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]) on women's development, which is mainly indicated by gender inequality index (GII). We adopt the difference-in-difference method for Asia–Europe regions from 2010 to 2019, and the propensity score matching method is further supplemented for refining the control group. The result suggests a robust negative effect of the BRI on gender inequality, and the decrease in GII caused by the BRI accounts for 33.01%. In addition, a deeper analysis is performed on subindices from multiple dimensions. We find that there has been a significant decrease in maternal mortality due to the policy. Besides, the female population has a larger increase in secondary education compared with men. Moreover, a clear labour shift has been found from family and agricultural labour to high-value-added industries and services. The BRI also helps improve the unfavourable condition in backward countries, which is conducive to narrowing the gap in women's development among countries along the route.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 4","pages":"394-429"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.50","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81749902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of misreporting probability in corporate credit rating: A nonparametric approach","authors":"Ruichang Lu,&nbsp;Yao Luo,&nbsp;Ruli Xiao","doi":"10.1002/ise3.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.51","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been heated debate regarding credit-rating agencies' (CRAs') reporting accuracy of corporate credit ratings, which is essential for investors because they rely on those crediting ratings to make investment decisions. We estimate the reporting accuracy using the data on corporate ratings from Standard &amp; Poor from January 1986 to December 2011. First, there is a U-shape in the overall misreporting pattern: the left-hand side (the high-rating groups) has a lower misreporting probability (3%), the middle has no misreporting, and the right-hand side has a high misreporting probability (6%). Second, we find that there is a significant difference across the industries. The financial sector has the highest misreporting probability (35% in the lowest rating group) and misreporting magnitude (rating rank jump between true rating and reported rating), and the energy industry has the lowest misreporting probability. Last, when the economic condition is good, CRAs are likelier to inflate the rating.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 3","pages":"260-276"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.51","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50145679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary economy and budget deficit in endogenous growth model","authors":"Yasuhito Tanaka","doi":"10.1002/ise3.49","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ise3.49","url":null,"abstract":"<p>By an endogenous growth model with two-period overlapping generations structure and money holding of consumers, we examine the existence of budget deficit in an economy which endogenously grows by investments of firms. The main results are as follows. (1) Budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. (2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. (3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. We do not assume that budget deficit must later be made up by budget surplus. This paper is an example of an analysis using a very simple model of the following statement by John Maynard Keynes.</p><p>“Unemployment develops, that is to say, because people want the moon;—men cannot be employed when the object of desire (i.e. money) is something which cannot be produced and the demand for which cannot be readily choked off. There is no remedy but to persuade the public that green cheese is practically the same thing and to have a green cheese factory (i.e. a central bank) under public control.”</p><p>In the appendix of this paper, we show that if money as well as goods are produced by capital and labor, budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 4","pages":"454-467"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.49","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72647995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local officials' political capital and poverty alleviation","authors":"Shubin Wang,&nbsp;Qiang Li,&nbsp;Yan Gu","doi":"10.1002/ise3.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.46","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examined the effect of local officials' political capital on poverty alleviation by using a manually compiled database of county party secretaries (CPSs) in impoverished counties in China. The empirical results reveal that CPSs with political capital positively affect poverty alleviation. Mechanism tests indicated that CPSs with political capital contribute to greater agricultural and financial development, attract more enterprise investment, and increase fiscal expenditure. The promotional effect of local officials' political capital on poverty alleviation was influenced by CPSs' characteristics (e.g., tenure, education level, and age) and was less pronounced during central government inspection and when the provincial government was less concerned about local officials' poverty alleviation. Our results suggest that local officials' political capital can alleviate poverty in emerging economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 3","pages":"351-369"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.46","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50116557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Health insurance coverage and marriage behavior: Is there evidence of marriage lock?","authors":"Tianxu Chen","doi":"10.1002/ise3.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.45","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Premiums and eligibility for health insurance may cause a “marriage lock,” in which couples stay married for the sake of maintaining health insurance coverage. By using the Health and Retirement Study for adults aged 60–70, I examine whether employer-based health insurance coverage for the spouse discourages divorce for spousal health insurance coverage-dependent individuals. Diverse difference-in-difference models provide evidence of a 7 percentage points increase in the number of divorces upon achieving Medicare eligibility at age 65 for people with spousal insurance coverage relative to those without it. The estimates thus provide evidence that marriage lock exists.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 2","pages":"136-158"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.45","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50145402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Centering on economic construction to stabilize general socioeconomic conditions while fully promoting economic recovery: Outlook, policy simulations, and reform implementation—A summary of the annual SUFE macroeconomic report (2022–2023)","authors":"Kevin X. D. Huang,&nbsp;Guoqiang Tian,&nbsp;Xiaowen Wang","doi":"10.1002/ise3.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.47","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Chinese economy upheld a frail recovery in 2022 under the triple superposition of contraction of demand, disruption in supply, and weakening expectations, aggravated by unanticipated adverse shocks in the midst of global turmoil. Over the year, rising income uncertainty set off by the pandemic shock continued depressing household consumption and housing demand. Trade also saw slowing growth, along with consumption and investment, with sluggish residential investment awaiting policy stimulus to take force. Unemployment rate remained high, and was much higher for youth engendered by severe structural imbalances in the labor market. Local government debt burden worsened while revenue shrinking, only to exacerbate the local fiscal financial risk. It fared better on the price side. While growth in producer price index kept falling, consumer price index maintained steady growth. Renminbi depreciated against USD through fluctuations with larger swings, but the exchange rate remained in a manageable band. The Institute for Advanced Research-China Macroeconomic Model projects the baseline growth rate in real gross domestic product to be 5.4% in 2023. We have also used the model to conduct alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations to assess the impacts of potential downside risks or favorable situations. Our findings call for a focus on economic construction with deepening reform and opening up more comprehensively and initiatively. Only by doing so can China spur market vitality, strengthen business confidence, and forge competitive advantages.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"2-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.47","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50153020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"It pays to have guanxi: How social capital affects household income in China","authors":"Kai Wu,&nbsp;Yi Liu,&nbsp;Yifan Xu,&nbsp;He Sun","doi":"10.1002/ise3.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.43","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The association between social capital and household income has received inadequate attention over the past decade. We examine the role of social capital in household income using three waves of household surveys from 2011 to 2015 in China. Using “local big surname or not” as the instrumental variable, we find that gift expenditure as a proxy for social capital is positively associated with total household income. In addition, social capital mainly affects income sources through improved financial sophistication, higher job position levels, closer government connections, and greater accessibility to operating loans. The results are robust to alternative social capital measures. The findings highlight the importance of social capital in household economic welfare in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 3","pages":"370-392"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.43","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50145471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supply chains and risk premia in Chinese stock market: A sorted-portfolio approach","authors":"Chao Yang,&nbsp;Yajun Zhao","doi":"10.1002/ise3.44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.44","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the recent literature, increasing attention has been paid to cases when the shocks to a small number of firms would lead to large volatility in many sectors. Theorists find that supply chains play a role, as the shocks to a firm or a sector may propagate through the input–output linkages and form risks in the whole network. In this paper, we investigate the impact of risks from supply-chain variations on risk premia of the A-listed firms in the Chinese stock market from 2007 to 2021. Based on network statistics, we measure a firm's local status in the supply chains by the customer- and supplier-concentration, and its global position by the centrality. We then construct corresponding risk factors using diversified portfolios sorted according to these indices. It is found that the supply-chain positions are related to risk exposure. Firms with de-concentrated customers/suppliers have larger risk premia than concentrated firms. Moreover, with Size controlled, the firms in the center of cross-sector trade have higher risk premia than the peripheral ones. When these supply-chain factors are added to Fama and French's five-factor model with Market, Size, B/M ratio, Operating profitability, and Investment, the proportion of return variances that could be explained would increase from 51.1% to 54.9% on average.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 3","pages":"277-305"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.44","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50152350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the Special Issue on the Economics of the Belt and Road Initiative","authors":"Ding Lu","doi":"10.1002/ise3.40","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ise3.40","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been China's flagship foreign policy since 2013. Perceived as an emblem of China's rising soft power, the BRI has aroused widespread research interest among academics of various disciplines. To facilitate economic studies of the BRI, the Editorial Board of this journal made a Call for Papers a year ago for a symposium on the economics of the BRI. The manuscripts finally published in this Special Issue were selected by an expedited review process from dozens of the works submitted.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;According to the Chinese government's official manifesto of the BRI, the initiative “is designed to uphold the global free trade regime and the open world economy in the spirit of open regional cooperation” (National Development and Reform Commission, &lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;). The tenet is seeking mutual benefit and a conjunction of interests for cooperating partners. The Initiative is claimed to be “a global public good,” built in line with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter; open for cooperation to all countries, and international/regional organizations; harmonious and inclusive for different civilizations and nations; and abiding by market rules and international norms. It covers vast areas along Eurasian trade routes between the East Asia economic circle at one end and the European economic circle at the other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Since its inception, the BRI has become an integral part of China's national plan for economic and social development. The 13th Five-year Plan (2016–2020) includes in it a chapter on the BRI, which specifies policies about cooperation mechanisms, economic corridors, and open and inclusive cultural exchanges (State Council, &lt;span&gt;2016&lt;/span&gt;). The 14th Five-year Plan (2021–2025) also has a chapter on the BRI, which describes policies to strengthen the linkage of development strategies and policies, promote interconnectivity and interoperability of infrastructure, deepen pragmatic economic, trade, and investment cooperation, and build a bridge for mutual learning among civilizations (State Council, &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Garlick (&lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;) also concedes in his book, &lt;i&gt;The Impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative&lt;/i&gt;, that “the BRI, despite its material real-world impacts such as investments and infrastructure projects, is wide open to a range of possible understandings. In fact, in a very important sense, the BRI is not one thing but is a matter of perception” (Garlick, &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;, p. 14).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is nevertheless evident that the BRI is first and foremost an initiative for international economic cooperation launched and led by China. For us economists, the most relevant research topics are, mainly, what the economic purposes of this Initiative are, how the BRI works, and what effects it has on international trade and investment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The leading article in this Special Issue, “Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for the BRI Success” (Chen and Guo), presents a framework for unders","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"17 4","pages":"412-416"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.40","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75786368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Group lying with negative externality","authors":"Lan Yao,&nbsp;Chong Zhou","doi":"10.1002/ise3.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.37","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use a modified die-rolling experiment to study whether negative externality affects a group's decisions about whether to cheat. Our results show that group members are less likely to lie when faced with a passive out-group player only if two members of the group share an unequal payment for lying. The less-paid party in the group plays a dominant role in the honest decision by proposing the true number more frequently in arguments for group coordination.</p>","PeriodicalId":29662,"journal":{"name":"International Studies of Economics","volume":"18 2","pages":"184-192"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ise3.37","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50124448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}