Documentos de Trabajo最新文献

Green energy transition and vulnerability to external shocks 绿色能源转型和对外部冲击的脆弱性

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.53479/37354

Rubén Domínguez-Díaz, Samuel Hurtado

引用次数: 0

Access to credit and firm survival during a crisis: the case of zero-bank-debt firms 危机期间获得信贷与企业生存：零银行债务企业的案例

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.53479/36752

Roberto Blanco, Miguel García-Posada, Sergio Mayordomo, María Rodríguez-Moreno

{"title":"Access to credit and firm survival during a crisis: the case of zero-bank-debt firms","authors":"Roberto Blanco, Miguel García-Posada, Sergio Mayordomo, María Rodríguez-Moreno","doi":"10.53479/36752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36752","url":null,"abstract":"We study the access to credit and the propensity to exit the market of firms with no bank debt (the main funding source of Spanish non-listed firms) around the COVID-19 crisis. Our methodology allows us to disentangle credit supply from credit demand, as having no bank debt may be the result of financial constraints or a deliberate strategy. Before the COVID-19 crisis, zero-bank-debt firms, especially risky ones, faced more difficult access to bank loans than firms that had previously held bank debt owing to their lack of credit history. These credit constraints were tightened by the COVID shock, regardless of firms’ risk, arguably because of increased information asymmetries during a period of high macroeconomic uncertainty. Zero-bank-debt firms, even those with a low probability of default, were much more likely to leave the market during the COVID-19 crisis than firms with a history of bank debt. Moreover, granting new credit to zero-bank-debt firms reduced their probability of exit, which suggests a causal relationship between the two aforementioned findings. Beyond the specific setting of the pandemic, this paper adds to the broader literature on a better understanding of supply and demand-side constraints for corporate external funding, as crystalised in zero-debt firms.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":"7 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141335802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shadow seniority? Lending relationships and borrowers’ selective default 影子资历？借贷关系和借款人的选择性违约

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.53479/36695

Francisco González, José E. Gutiérrez, José María Serena

引用次数: 0

Stabilisation properties of a sure-like European unemployment insurance 欧洲失业保险的稳定特性

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.53479/36654

Daniel Alonso

{"title":"Stabilisation properties of a sure-like European unemployment insurance","authors":"Daniel Alonso","doi":"10.53479/36654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36654","url":null,"abstract":"To moderate the falls in production and income that affect certain states or regions, countries and monetary unions have risk-sharing mechanisms. These mechanisms work by stabilising household incomes such that fluctuations in production do not filter through to consumption. Almost all existing monetary unions are true insurance unions, except for the euro area. This entails lower resilience to economic shocks and, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis, implies that the ability to respond to different shocks may differ between countries and, therefore, hinder economic convergence and homogeneous operation of the euro area. In this regard, the creation of a European Unemployment Insurance (EUI) scheme is often cited as an important step towards macroeconomic smoothing within the euro area that could help mitigate the economic and social impact of large economic shocks. In this paper, I propose an EUI scheme, with partial coverage, calibrated to the characteristics of the Temporary Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE scheme) introduced during the COVID-19 crisis, and test its cyclical properties through simulation exercises, based on the payment and contribution flows in each country. This paper shows that such a transfer system with a relatively limited size could make a significant contribution to stabilising economic developments, cushioning part of the disruptions in times of crisis.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141228512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies from 2011 to 2018 on banking assets 2011 至 2018 年欧洲央行非常规货币政策对银行资产的影响

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.53479/36595

Gerald P. Dwyer, Biljana Gilevska, María J. Nieto, Margarita Samartín

{"title":"The effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies from 2011 to 2018 on banking assets","authors":"Gerald P. Dwyer, Biljana Gilevska, María J. Nieto, Margarita Samartín","doi":"10.53479/36595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36595","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effects of all three major European Central Bank (ECB) unconventional monetary policies since 2011 for euro area banks’ holdings of loans, government securities and cash deposited in central banks. The three ECB policies are longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs), the asset purchase programmes and the ECB’s interest rate on its deposit facility. We also compare the responses of non-crisis and crisis countries to these policies. Our evidence indicates that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy measures increased bank lending across the euro area countries. The second round of LTROs, also known as targeted LTROs (TLTROs), were conditional on banks increasing their lending. This change had a substantially larger effect on total lending by banks. The computed effects of the LTROs and TLTROs, based on average size, indicate that in non-crisis countries LTROs increased bank loans by 7.6% of assets and TLTROs increased bank loans by 16.4% of assets, whereas in crisis countries the increases were 8.4% and 14.6% for LTROs and TLTROs, respectively. We find that both LTROs and TLTROs were associated with decreases in government securities held by banks in non-crisis countries, while the LTROs were associated with increases in government securities held by banks in crisis countries.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141100168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Family and career: An analysis across Europe and North America 家庭与事业：对欧洲和北美的分析

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.53479/36575

Luis Guirola, Laura Hospido, Andrea Weber

引用次数: 0

Should macroprudential policy target corporate lending? Evidence from credit standards and defaults 宏观审慎政策是否应以企业贷款为目标？来自信贷标准和违约的证据

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.53479/36477

Luis Gonzalo Fernandez Lafuerza, Jorge E. Galán

{"title":"Should macroprudential policy target corporate lending? Evidence from credit standards and defaults","authors":"Luis Gonzalo Fernandez Lafuerza, Jorge E. Galán","doi":"10.53479/36477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36477","url":null,"abstract":"We provide compelling evidence of the association between credit standards at loan origination in the corporate sector and default risk, a topic that has received little attention in the literature in comparison to the study of this relationship in the mortgage market. Using data from the Spanish credit register merged with corporate balance sheet information spanning the last financial cycle, we demonstrate that leverage and debt burden ratios at loan origination are key predictors of future corporate loan defaults. We also show that the deterioration in lending standards is strongly correlated to the build-up of cyclical systemic risk during periods of financial expansions. Specifically, limits on the debt-to-assets ratio and the interest coverage ratio could serve as effective tools to mitigate credit risk during economic expansions. We identify that the strength of these associations varies significantly across different sectors and is dependent on firms’ size, age and the existence of prior relationships with the bank. Real estate firms and small and medium-sized enterprises exhibit the strongest relationship between credit standards and future default. Overall, our findings provide strong support for the effectiveness of macroprudential measures targeting the corporate sector and contribute to providing guidance for the implementation of borrower-based measures in key segments of corporate credit.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":"144 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141015221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Staggered contracts and unemployment during recessions 经济衰退期间的交错合同和失业问题

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.53479/36474

Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Luis Díez-Catalán, Ernesto Villanueva

引用次数: 1

The impact of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer on credit: Evidence from its accumulation and release before and during COVID-19 反周期资本缓冲对信贷的影响：从其在 COVID-19 之前和期间的积累和释放中获得的证据

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.53479/36312

Mikel Bedayo, Jorge E. Galán

{"title":"The impact of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer on credit: Evidence from its accumulation and release before and during COVID-19","authors":"Mikel Bedayo, Jorge E. Galán","doi":"10.53479/36312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36312","url":null,"abstract":"The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) has become a very important macroprudential tool to strengthen banks’ resilience. However, there is still limited evidence of its impact on lending over the cycle. Using data of 170 banks in 25 European Union countries, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how the CCyB release during the pandemic and its earlier accumulation impacted lending activity. We find that the CCyB has significant effects on lending, but that these effects are highly dependent on banks’ capitalization levels and, more importantly, on their headroom over regulatory requirements. We show that the release of the CCyB in response to the pandemic had a positive impact on lending, especially for banks with the lowest headroom over requirements, and that this effect was larger than the negative impact of its previous accumulation. While the CCyB accumulation had a short-term negative impact on lending for the most capital-constrained banks, this effect quickly diluted due to their enhanced solvency position, potentially allowing them to lower their cost of equity. Our results provide evidence of the benefits of the CCyB, especially in supporting lending during adverse events, while emphasising the need for policymakers to consider the heterogeneous effects across banks when deploying this tool.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140747300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The bright side of the doom loop: banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives 厄运循环的光明面：银行的主权风险和违约诱因

Documentos de Trabajo Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.53479/36258

Luis E. Rojas, Dominik Thaler

{"title":"The bright side of the doom loop: banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives","authors":"Luis E. Rojas, Dominik Thaler","doi":"10.53479/36258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/36258","url":null,"abstract":"The feedback loop between sovereign and financial sector insolvency has been identified as a key driver of the European debt crisis and has motivated an array of policy proposals. We revisit this “doom loop” focusing on governments’ incentives to default. To this end, we present a simple 3-period model with strategic sovereign default, where debt is held by domestic banks and foreign investors. The government maximizes domestic welfare, and thus the temptation to default increases with externally-held debt. Importantly, the costs of default arise endogenously from the damage that default causes to domestic banks’ balance sheets. Domestically-held debt thus serves as a commitment device for the government. We show that two prominent policy prescriptions – lower exposure of banks to domestic sovereign debt or a commitment not to bailout banks – can backfire, since default incentives depend not only on the quantity of debt, but also on who holds it. Conversely, allowing banks to buy additional sovereign debt in times of sovereign distress can avert the doom loop. In an extension we show that in the context of a monetary union (such as the euro area) similar unintended negative consequences may arise from the pooling of debt (such as European safe bonds (ESBies)). A central bank backstop (such as the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument) can successfully disable the loop if precisely calibrated.","PeriodicalId":296461,"journal":{"name":"Documentos de Trabajo","volume":" 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140210252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0