发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Heterogeneous Sticky-Information Economies 异质粘性信息经济
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3086347
Carlos M. Carvalho
{"title":"Heterogeneous Sticky-Information Economies","authors":"Carlos M. Carvalho","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3086347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3086347","url":null,"abstract":"The literature that emerged from Mankiw and Reis' (2002) proposal of sticky information as an alternative to sticky-price models has focused on economies populated with (ex-ante) identical firms. This paper analyzes the implications of heterogeneity in the degree of information stickiness among price-setting firms in different sectors for the dynamic response of the economy to various shocks. I compare multisector sticky-information models with otherwise identical one-sector economies that feature the same frequency of information updating. I find that the effects of such shocks on the output gap -- the difference between actual output and the output level that would prevail in the absence of information frictions -- are larger in heterogeneous economies.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"138 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121417281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty about the Length of Business Cycles 经济周期长度不一致和不确定性下的资产定价
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3038497
D. Andrei, B. Carlin, M. Hasler
{"title":"Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty about the Length of Business Cycles","authors":"D. Andrei, B. Carlin, M. Hasler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3038497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3038497","url":null,"abstract":"We study an economy with incomplete information in which two agents are uncertain and disagree about the length of business cycles. That is, the agents do not question whether the economy is growing or not, but instead continuously estimate how long economic cycles will last—i.e., they learn about the persistence of fundamentals. Learning about persistence generates high and persistent stock return volatility mostly during recessions, but also (to a smaller extent) during economic booms. Disagreement among agents fluctuates and earns a risk premium. A clear risk–return trade-off appears only when conditioning on the sign and magnitude of disagreement. We confirm these predictions empirically. This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132654849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Was Milton Friedman's Hope for Monetarism Reasonable? Optimal Wage Indexation Re-Examined. 米尔顿·弗里德曼对货币主义的希望合理吗?重新审视最优工资指数化。
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-07-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3003827
James M. Holmes, J. Holmes, Patricia A. Hutton
{"title":"Was Milton Friedman's Hope for Monetarism Reasonable? Optimal Wage Indexation Re-Examined.","authors":"James M. Holmes, J. Holmes, Patricia A. Hutton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3003827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3003827","url":null,"abstract":"Gray and Benassy analysed the optimal wage indexation choice for representative agents and labor unions when monetary or/and real shocks are generated by a symmetric distribution. Here their analysis is extended to the more relevant choice for firm owners. In general, the probability of contractionary monetary and real shocks, either alone or simultaneously, can make any degree of indexation optimal. If restricted to plausible values, a firm’s optimal choice is usually the opposite of that for representative/self-employed agents or labor unions, because it can increase the owner’s profit at the expense of worker’s income. Indexation is arguably non-optimal for firms.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115437878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disaster Management of Human Resources 人力资源灾害管理
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2971188
R. Bera, S. Raj
{"title":"Disaster Management of Human Resources","authors":"R. Bera, S. Raj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2971188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2971188","url":null,"abstract":"We present a potential global disaster scenario never witnessed in the history of mankind — a phase transition in societal structure caused by AI-powered, large scale automation and the common man’s inability to cope and align with the inevitable socio-economic forces unleashed by automation. First, we explain the inevitability of this disaster; second, we explain the magnitude of the disaster; and third, available options in managing the disaster. The principal contributors to the impending disaster is an unavoidable socio-economic phase transition that we infer from a fundamental result in graph theory in mathematics and the magnitude of the disaster is estimated based on the logistic map in chaos theory. The scope of managing the disaster will be extremely limited and restricted largely to the survival of the creatively intelligent among the human species. This disaster will be global, its scale will be massive, and human society will find itself grossly underprepared to deal with it because of its psychological reluctance to accept it as a possibility. That possibility arises because of humanity’s unrelenting march towards a technological singularity as foreseen by Ray Kurzweil, and it is expected to occur within three decades.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116770335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Opportunity versus Necessity Entrepreneurship: Two Components of Business Creation 机会与必要性创业:创业的两个组成部分
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.3386/W26377
R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen
{"title":"Opportunity versus Necessity Entrepreneurship: Two Components of Business Creation","authors":"R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen","doi":"10.3386/W26377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26377","url":null,"abstract":"A common finding in the entrepreneurship literature is that business creation increases in recessions. This counter-cyclical pattern is examined by separating business creation into two components: “opportunity” and “necessity” entrepreneurship. Although there is general agreement in the previous literature on the conceptual distinction between these two factors driving entrepreneurship, there are many challenges to creating a definition that is both objective and empirically feasible. We propose an operational definition of opportunity versus necessity entrepreneurship using readily available nationally representative data. We create a distinction between the two types of entrepreneurship based on the entrepreneur’s prior work status that is consistent with the standard theoretical economic model of entrepreneurship. Using this definition we document that “opportunity” entrepreneurship is pro-cyclical and “necessity” entrepreneurship is counter-cyclical. We also find that “opportunity” vs. “necessity” entrepreneurship is associated with the creation of more growth-oriented businesses. The operational distinction proposed here may be useful for future research in entrepreneurship.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116344092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 163
The Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from House Prices 银行流动性冲击的传导:来自房价的证据
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2163975
H. Ö. Dursun-de Neef
{"title":"The Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from House Prices","authors":"H. Ö. Dursun-de Neef","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2163975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2163975","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the 2007-2009 financial crisis as a negative liquidity shock on banks in the US and analyzes its transmission to the real economy. The ex-ante heterogeneity in the amount of long-term debt that matured during the crisis is used to measure the variation in banks' exposure to the liquidity shock. I find that banks transmitted the liquidity shock to the real economy by reducing their loan supply. The reduction was particularly strong for real estate loans. As a result, house prices declined in the MSAs where these banks have branches. Bank capital plays a significant role in the transmission: Under-capitalized banks transmitted the liquidity shock, whereas well-capitalized banks' lending did not show any decline.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128644128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Time-Varying Risk Premiums and Economic Cycles 时变风险溢价与经济周期
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2949914
Thomas Raffinot
{"title":"Time-Varying Risk Premiums and Economic Cycles","authors":"Thomas Raffinot","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2949914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2949914","url":null,"abstract":"Asset returns are not correlated with the business cycle but are primarily caused by the economic cycles. To validate this claim, economic cycles are first rigorously defined, namely the classical business cycle and the growth cycle, better known as the output gap. The description of different economic phases is refined by jointly considering both economic cycles. It improves the classical analysis of economic cycles by considering sometimes two distinct phases and sometimes four distinct phases. The theoretical influence of economic cycles on time-varying risk premiums is then explained based on two key economic concepts: nominal GDP and adaptive expectations. Simple dynamic investment strategies confirm the importance of economical cycles, especially the growth cycle, for euro and dollar-based investors. At last, this economic cyclical framework can improve strategic asset allocation choices.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131937259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Monetary Policy, Heterogeneous Expectations and Structural Uncertainty 货币政策、异质预期与结构不确定性
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-04-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3043037
Tsvetomira Tsenova
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Heterogeneous Expectations and Structural Uncertainty","authors":"Tsvetomira Tsenova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3043037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3043037","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that monetary policy does and should respond systematically to time variation in ex-ante uncertainty and heterogeneity in private sector’s views over the business cycle. Empirical tests are initially conducted on the basis of an augmented forward-looking Taylor rule framework, modified to account for learning and robustness. Normative justification is further provided by evaluating the optimal forecast-based monetary policy response under imperfect knowledge given a set of heterogeneous nested reference structural models, estimated to best fit private sector’s forecasts in addition to contemporaneous data.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127751948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information-Driven Business Cycles: A Primal Approach 信息驱动的商业周期:一种原始方法
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3135375
R. Chahrour, R. Ulbricht
{"title":"Information-Driven Business Cycles: A Primal Approach","authors":"R. Chahrour, R. Ulbricht","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3135375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3135375","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a methodology to estimate DSGE models with incomplete information, free of parametric restrictions on information structures. First, we define a “primal” economy in which deviations from full information are captured by wedges in agents' equilibrium expectations. Second, we provide implementability conditions, which ensure the existence of an information structure that implements these wedges. We apply the approach to estimate a New Keynesian model in which firms, households and the monetary authority have dispersed information about business conditions and productivity is the only aggregate fundamental. The estimated model fits the data remarkably well, with informational shocks able to account for the majority of U.S. business cycles. Output is driven mainly by household sentiments, whereas firm errors largely determine inflation. Our estimation indicates that firms and the central bank learn the aggregate state of the economy quickly, while household confusion about aggregate conditions is sizable and persistent.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127877670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Cosmetics and Toiletries Market Growth In Economic Downturn 化妆品和洗漱用品市场在经济衰退中的增长
ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2914215
Washiroporn Sosewee
{"title":"Cosmetics and Toiletries Market Growth In Economic Downturn","authors":"Washiroporn Sosewee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2914215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2914215","url":null,"abstract":"During the economic downturn, cosmetic industry has been growing heavily with a wide expansion to international market. It gives a different result from other products consumption during the economic struggle. This study reviews the demand elasticity of total cosmetic consumption in France and the Imported amount of cosmetics from the United State during the economic is in downturn. To limit effects in sociodemographic changes, the data spans the recent period of 2011 to 2015. Even though, the economy is struggling and the income per capita is decreased but the consumption of cosmetic remains growing. The cosmetic and toiletries producers has gone through so many obstacles in their expansion into international markets, which expected to be a potential market in the future. One of the main reasons behind the beauty industry is the distribution of cosmetics and toiletries to Asian economies. Online retailing is one of the distribution channels that drives the growth of cosmetic industry in Asia.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114498463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信