ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)最新文献_第5页

An Irrelevance Theorem for Risk Aversion and Time-Varying Risk 风险厌恶与时变风险的不相关定理

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3148254

Andrew Y. Chen, Francisco Palomino

引用次数: 2

The Effect of Tunisian Cyclical Fiscal Policy on Economic Volatility: Understanding the Role of Institutional Quality 突尼斯周期性财政政策对经济波动的影响:对制度质量作用的理解

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-08-08 DOI: 10.31014/AIOR.1992.02.03.120

Bahrini Wadiaa

{"title":"The Effect of Tunisian Cyclical Fiscal Policy on Economic Volatility: Understanding the Role of Institutional Quality","authors":"Bahrini Wadiaa","doi":"10.31014/AIOR.1992.02.03.120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31014/AIOR.1992.02.03.120","url":null,"abstract":"The recent decades have been marked by major instabilities that have increased the sensitivity of Tunisian business cycles to internal and external shocks. The economists must take this structural problem into account in their current decisions. Therefore, most institutional reforms were made in response to those instabilities after the Tunisian revolution. In addition, several fiscal indicators are partly intended to stabilize Tunisian economic fluctuations and avoid excessive government deficits. The influence of fiscal policy can be examined by distinguishing between cyclical and discretionary policies. Accordingly, it is interesting to investigate the impact of institutional quality on Tunisian fiscal policy conduct. This paper measures the effect of cyclical fiscal policy on Tunisian volatility. It analyzes the role of four fiscal indicators such as total government expenditure, administrative expenditure, capital expenditure, and loan expenditure. In addition, this paper tests the role of institutional variables on the stabilizing effect of fiscal policy. Indeed, the results are significant, and a tendency to apply a cyclical fiscal policy proved to be possible to reduce Tunisian volatility. Tunisian's experience is likely to be of interest to other developing countries.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133389307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Entrepreneurial Risk, Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations 创业风险、抵押品约束与宏观经济波动

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3432620

J. Brumm

引用次数: 0

A crise enquanto momento de um ciclo económico: As crises dos séculos XIX, XX e XXI (Crisis as a Moment of an Economic Cycle: The 19th, 20th and 21st Century Crisis) 危机是经济周期的一个时刻:19世纪、20世纪和21世纪的危机económico

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-07-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3427782

Tiago Miguel Galão Mendonça

{"title":"A crise enquanto momento de um ciclo económico: As crises dos séculos XIX, XX e XXI (Crisis as a Moment of an Economic Cycle: The 19th, 20th and 21st Century Crisis)","authors":"Tiago Miguel Galão Mendonça","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3427782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3427782","url":null,"abstract":"Portuguese Abstract: O estudo dos séculos XIX e XX evidencia o carácter cíclico da economia, isto é, a repetição constante de fases ascendentes seguidas de uma crise (um momento de inversão conjuntural no ciclo económico) e, finalmente, um período depressivo. Regista-se neste artigo as 22 crises ocorridas nos séculos XIX e XX procurando-se evidenciar o aludido carácter cíclico da economia, seja segundo a proposta de Kondratieff (ciclos de 40 a 60 anos) seja, mais decisivamente, secundando o propugnado por Juglar (ciclos médios de 7 a 11 anos). Considerou-se ainda o século XXI como sendo um observatório privilegiado sobretudo pelo facto de, provavelmente, termos experimentado na crise do século XXI (2008) a conjugação de um momento crítico Juglar com o patamar mais fundo da fase depressiva de um ciclo largo o que terá, em parte, justificado os efeitos tão perniciosos sentidos, sobretudo, na primeira metade da segunda década do século XXI. English Abstract: The study of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries emphasizes the cyclical character of the economy revealing the constant repetition of upward phases followed by a crisis (a moment of cyclical inversion in the economic cycle) and, finally, a depressive period. In this article are registered the 22 crises that occurred in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, seeking to underline the suggested cyclical character of the economy, either according to Kondratieff's proposal (cycles of 40 to 60 years) or, more decisively, supporting Juglar’s proposal (average cycles of 7 to 11 years). The 21st century is a privileged observatory, mainly because we probably experienced in the crisis of the 21st century (2008) the combination of a Juglar’s crisis with the deeper level of the depressive phase of a Kondratieff cycle which potentially justify the pernicious effects felt above all in the first half of the second decade of the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122715730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Monetary Policy and Household Deleveraging 货币政策与家庭去杠杆化

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3417568

Martín Harding, Mathias Klein

{"title":"Monetary Policy and Household Deleveraging","authors":"Martín Harding, Mathias Klein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3417568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3417568","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the interrelation between the household leverage cycle, collateral constraints, and monetary policy. Using data on the U.S. economy, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to a large and significant fall in economic activity during periods of household deleveraging. In contrast, monetary policy shocks only have insignificant effects during a household leveraging state. These results are robust to alternative definitions of leveraging and deleveraging periods, different ways of identifying monetary policy shocks, controlling for the state of the business cycle, the level of households debt, and financial stress. To provide a structural interpretation for these empirical findings, we estimate a monetary DSGE model with financial frictions and occasionally binding collateral constraints. The model estimates reveal that household deleveraging periods in the data on average coincide with periods of binding collateral constraints whereas constraints tend to turn slack during leveraging episodes. Moreover, the model produces an amplification of monetary policy shocks that is quantitatively comparable to our empirical estimates. These findings indicate that the state-dependent tightness of collateral constraints accounts for the asymmetric effects of monetary policy across the household leverage cycle as found in the data.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124373953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

中国影子银行的经济学分析：发展驱动因素 (Economics of China’s Shadow Banking: Driving Growth Factors) 中国影子银行的经济学分析：发展驱动因素 (Economics of China’s Shadow Banking: Driving Growth Factors)

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3629003

Wenzhe Li

{"title":"中国影子银行的经济学分析：发展驱动因素 (Economics of China’s Shadow Banking: Driving Growth Factors)","authors":"Wenzhe Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3629003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3629003","url":null,"abstract":"Chinese Abstract: 近年来，中国影子银行的迅速发展吸引了学术界和政策制订者的广泛关注。在传统的银行表内贷款和债券投资之外，存量高达50万亿元的影子银行如何发展起来？本文系统性回顾了影子银行自2002年以来的发展历程，认为其本质上是地方政府融资平台和房地产企业的融资工具，来自这两类企业的旺盛融资需求为影子银行发展提供了根本动力。为影子银行发展助力的是商业银行降低交易费用的动机，把表内业务挪到表外、内部交易外部化，资金成本高了一些，但显著降低了制度成本，从而降低了总交易费用。此外，监管政策对影子银行的发展也有影响。我们据此建立了局部均衡理论模型，并解出影子银行的存量方程和价格方程，首次采用李文喆（2019）测算的翔实的影子银行总量数据进行了实证检验。经工具变量法、广义矩估计、向量自回归等方法检验，发现本文的解释框架在较高的显著性下成立，模型解释力较强。 English Abstract: In recent years, the spectacular expansion of China’s shadow banking attracts broad attention from both academia and policy makers. Beyond traditional on-balance sheet bank loans and bond investment, how did shadow banking develop to a scale as high as RMB 5 trillion yuan? This paper systematically reviews development of shadow banking since 2002, and comes to conclude that shadow banking essentially is the financing vehicle of local government and real estate enterprises. Financing needs of these two types of enterprises are the essential driving factor of shadow banking growth. Incentive of commercial banks to lower transaction costs is also very important. Although shifting business off balance sheet, and externalizing internal transactions elevate funding cost, they substantially lower institutional cost and reduce total transaction cost. Besides, during this process, regulation policy also exerts influences. Based on the above analysis, we build partial equilibrium theoretical model and solve to obtain stock and price equations of shadow banking. For the first time, we utilize detailed aggregate data of China’s shadow banking from Li (2019) to conduct empirical tests of above analysis. The results from Instrumental Variable method, Generalized Method of Moments, and Vector Autoregression show that this explanatory framework stands at high significance level, and has strong explanatory power. Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese. An updated version of this paper was published in Chinese academic journal 'Economist' in March 2021.","PeriodicalId":291048,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133092150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Does the Number of Countries in an International Business Cycle Model Matter? 国际经济周期模型中的国家数量重要吗?

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3371975

Myunghyun Kim

引用次数: 9

Debt and Depth of Recessions 债务和衰退的深度

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.22617/WPS190126-2

Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin, Grace Tian

引用次数: 1

Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment 信贷周期、预期和企业投资

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3369295

Stefano Rossi, Huseyin Gulen, Mihai Ion

引用次数: 11

Decomposition of Russia’s Economic Growth Rates 2018-2019 2018-2019年俄罗斯经济增长率分解

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3348339

S. Drobyshevsky, P. Pavlov

引用次数: 0