2018-2019年俄罗斯经济增长率分解

ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-07 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3348339

S. Drobyshevsky, P. Pavlov

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们对俄罗斯的GDP增长率进行了分解，以评估俄罗斯经济的现状。2018年，基本生产要素(劳动力、资本、全要素生产率)对经济增长的贡献率约为1.6个百分点。全球原油价格对经济增长的贡献率约为-0.5个百分点。而商业周期和随机冲击因素总共贡献了约1.2个百分点。如果不受负面冲击，2019年年底的经济增速可能会保持在1.7-2.0%。

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Decomposition of Russia’s Economic Growth Rates 2018-2019

We have performed a decomposition of Russia’s GDP growth rates to assess the current state of the Russian economy. Basic production factors (labour, capital, total factor productivity) in 2018 contributed to the growth around 1.6 p.p. Global crude oil prices posted a negative contribution of around -0.5 .p., while the business cycle and random shocks components altogether contributed around 1.2 .p. End-of year growth for 2019 might stay at 1.7–2.0%, barring negative shocks.

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ERN: Business Fluctuations; Cycles (Topic)

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