MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"CyberIR@MIT: Exploration & Innovation in International Relations","authors":"N. Choucri, Lauren Fairman, G. Agarwal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3936863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3936863","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a brief introduction to Cyber-IR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. Cyber-IR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (MIT, 2009-2014) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The vision for Cyber-IR@MIT is shaped by the research for Cyberpolitics in International Relations, a book written by Nazli Choucri and published by MIT Press in 2012. The operational approach to the knowledge system is influenced by the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), developed earlier and focused on challenges of system sustainability. Cyber-IR@MIT gradually evolved into a knowledge-based system of human interactions in cyberspace and international relations, all embedded in the overarching natural system. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions. The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation – embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with f search and retrieval functions.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"115 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117130185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rank Deficiency? Analyzing the Costs and Benefits of Single-Winner Ranked-Choice Voting","authors":"J. Clark","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3703197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3703197","url":null,"abstract":"In the past decade, debate around the effects of the instant runoff voting (IRV) has intensified, as proponents seek to build upon a victory in Maine to expand its use to more states. However, there has relied on unsubstantiated claims from both sides, as it has only been used in a single statewide election. This lack of information around IRV is compounded by the fact that relatively little work has been done around the behavioral impacts of IRV in a multi- party setting, with most of the elections happening in cities that lean strongly Democrat. This study seeks to better understand this reform by being the first to holistically analyze both the micro-level and macro-level impacts of IRV. In doing so, I find strong experimental and observational evidence to suggest that the negative impacts of IRV outweigh any positive effects, and that elite-led opinion may serve as a mitigating factor.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132847006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The American Dream and Support for the Social Safety Net: Evidence from Experiment and Survey Data","authors":"Wei-Kang Wong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3173814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3173814","url":null,"abstract":"I propose the status quo bias hypothesis, which predicts that housing wealth increases preference for status quo arrangements with respect to Social Security. I contrast the status quo bias hypothesis with the claim that housing wealth reduces support for social insurance, and test the hypothesis in two empirical studies. A survey experiment finds that homeowners informed about high historical home price appreciation (HPA) are about 8 percentage points more likely to prefer existing Social Security arrangements to privatized retirement accounts, compared to those informed about low historical HPA. Observational data from the 2000-2004 ANES panel show that homeowners who experience higher HPA are about 11 percentage points more likely to prefer status quo levels of spending on Social Security than those in the bottom HPA quartile. No significant HPA effects are observed among renters, and for other domains of social insurance among homeowners. The evidence suggests that housing wealth's conservatizing effect should be interpreted as a status quo preference, rather than opposition to redistributive social policies.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"151 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123608109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why is New Hampshire More Competitive than Pennsylvania? Historical Electoral Competitiveness and Swing State Selection","authors":"Zachary Markovich, Dean Lacy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3168687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3168687","url":null,"abstract":"The electoral competitiveness of a geographic area, such as a US state, is usually measured as the deviation of the ex post election outcome from a tie, which assumes campaigns have perfect foresight expectations about the outcome, ignores prior election results, and does not account for over-time variation within a state. This paper introduces a measure of historical estimated electoral competitiveness that incorporates past election results and over-time volatility. The measure explains presidential campaigns’ advertising spending in 2008 and 2012 better than other frequently-used measures. Results from elections four decades past exert a significant effect on campaign expenditures in the 2008 and 2012 elections. The 1976 election appears particularly influential in recent campaign spending patterns. Historical estimated competitiveness shows that Romney’s campaign overspent in New Hampshire and Wisconsin in 2012, and both campaigns underspent in Ohio in 2008 and 2012.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126305664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inside Source: The Causes and Consequences of Intelligence Infiltration in Civil Wars","authors":"Cullen G. Nutt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3161697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3161697","url":null,"abstract":"What explains intelligence success in civil wars? Specifically, when and why do states succeed in cultivating intelligence sources within the adversary side? Such sources provide precious insight into the enemy’s thinking. I find that the dominant framework for information provision in civil war, in which controlling territory yields information, is inapplicable to intelligence infiltration of armed groups. I develop a theory that instead points to the necessity of expertise in identifying disgruntled insurgents, as well as trust on the part of prospective agents that counterinsurgents can maintain secrecy. I draw on ample documentation of U.S. and South Vietnamese intelligence efforts during three periods in the Vietnam War to probe the plausibility of these explanations. I find substantial support for my explanation. I also offer an account of the causes and consequences of the most spectacular intelligence penetration of the war for the United States. A single mid-level Viet Cong cadre spying for the CIA influenced U.S. knowledge of Communist intentions and capabilities from his formal recruitment in 1969 until the end of the war and the agent’s death in captivity in April 1975. I discuss the applicability of these findings to other civil war contexts, including contemporary U.S. interventions.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122172998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attitudes Toward Internal and Foreign Migration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in China","authors":"Davida Singer, Kai Quek","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3055221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3055221","url":null,"abstract":"We explore attitudes toward internal and foreign migration in China using an original survey experiment. If labor market competition drives attitudes, then residents will be opposed to migrants with comparable skill levels, regardless of migrant origin. If residents fear a dilution of their national identity, then they will be more opposed to foreign migration than internal migration. We test these arguments by randomly assigning respondents to answer questions about migrants with different skills levels and from either foreign countries or other provinces in China. We find that attitudes cleave universally over skill level, but the foreign-internal dimension is, on its own, not a salient cleavage in preferences. However, when considering high-skilled migrants, respondents are more supportive of foreign than internal migration; when considering low-skilled migrants, they are more opposed to foreign than internal migration. The results cast further doubt on material explanations for attitudes toward migration and suggest a reevaluation of cultural threat arguments that privilege nationality and national borders.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125978776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Ideological Nationalization of Mass Partisanship: Policy Preferences and Partisan Identification in State Publics, 1946–2014","authors":"Devin Caughey, James W. Dunham, C. Warshaw","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2853674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2853674","url":null,"abstract":"Since the mid-20th century, elite political behavior has increasingly nationalized. In Congress, for example, within-party geographic cleavages have declined, roll-call voting has become increasingly one-dimensional, and Democrats and Republicans have diverged along this main dimension of national partisan conflict. The existing literature finds that citizens have displayed only a delayed and attenuated echo of elite trends. We show, however, that a very different picture emerges if we focus not on individual citizens but on the aggregate characteristics of geographic constituencies. Using estimates of the economic, racial, and social policy liberalism of the average Democrat, Independent, and Republican in each state-year 1946–2014, we demonstrate a surprisingly close correspondence between mass and elite trends. Specifically, we find that: (1) ideological divergence between Democrats and Republicans has increased dramatically within each domain, just as it has in Congress; (2) economic, racial, and social liberalism have become highly correlated across state-party publics, just as they have across members of Congress; (3) ideological variation across state-party publics is now almost completely explained by party rather than state, closely tracking trends in the Senate; and (4) senators’ liberalism is strongly predicted by the liberalism of their state-party subconstituency, even controlling for their party affiliation and their state public’s overall liberalism. Taken together, this correspondence between elite and mass patterns suggests that members of Congress are actually quite in synch with their constituencies, if not with individual citizens.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128640121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political Participation and the 'Feeling of Doing': The Causes and Consequences of Perceptions of Political Control","authors":"J. Montgomery, Nicolas K. Dumas, Michelle Torres","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2603390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2603390","url":null,"abstract":"Perceptions of political control (POPC) is a set of subjective beliefs about the effectiveness of specific actions in achieving desired political outcomes and how capable individuals feel in executing these strategies. We argue that participation in the political system, especially successful participation, fosters these control beliefs. POPC in turn affects how people understand their role in the political world and their reasoning in making political decisions. Using data from a two-wave national survey and a novel experiment, we show that the POPC is distinct from and superior to traditional measures of political efficacy and trust due to its stronger theoretical foundations. Further, as our theory suggests, we show that POPC increases with successful political participation and that individuals with higher POPC are more likely to attribute political outcomes to their personal actions and to ignore information implying that the effectiveness of their actions is conditioned by the political environment.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131439608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-Evolution of Cyberspace and International Relations: New Challenges for the Social Sciences","authors":"N. Choucri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2514532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2514532","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that the construction of cyberspace is creating new challenges for the social sciences, the full nature of which still remains to be fully understood -- perhaps even calling into question some of its most basic assumptions. We frame these challenges with reference to co-evolution of the new cyber domain and the traditional international system, and then focus more specifically on the emergent synergy between two independent features of the contemporary world order -- cyberspace (an arena of interaction) and sustainability (a policy imperative), and their convergence on the global policy agenda. It is no surprise that sustainability is closely connected to security -- or alternatively that security is contingent on sustainability. By extension, cybersecurity is derivative, in that it refers to security in the cyber domain.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125441182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategy for International Cooperation in Planning the Chinese Space Station","authors":"J. Foley","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2425862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2425862","url":null,"abstract":"The ultimate challenges facing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are how to domestically maintain the power of the state while increasing individual liberties; and facilitating its international rise while avoiding direct confrontation as it is expanding global influence. Within the past decade, China has experienced a steady progression of technology resulting in prestigious accomplishments for the manned space program. To reassure the world of its benign rise China is seeking collaboration in the exploration and utilization of outer space. This paper provides a critical examination of the technology and politics of the Chinese Space Station (CSS) endeavor and investigates areas of conflict that could potentially affect China, such as spheres of influence, status and prestige, resource competition, and fundamental disagreements over the international system. I argue that only if it can be effectively managed as a platform for international cooperation and global leadership CSS can achieve subsidiary benefits for the Chinese government in domestic and foreign policy. In building a prosperous socialist society China must use science, technology, education, and culture as means for achieving political ends. However, inviting international partners in the process of constructing and operating a space station presents an expansively demanding policy problem. China must determine if there are tangible benefits associated with different scales and scopes of space station cooperation. The key policy problem is finding a model that is effective for fair and rational cooperation based on mutual benefit, transparency, reciprocity, and cost sharing, while striking a balance with partners over ownership, intellectual property, and utilization rights. Through first hand professional and cultural experience in China and translations of various Chinese academic journals I construct an analytical assessment of PRC space activities and recommend effective strategies to support scientific and technological innovation for intentional cooperation on CSS.","PeriodicalId":289975,"journal":{"name":"MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123131205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}