Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)最新文献

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Diversification Across Characteristics 跨特征多样化
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1536765
Erik Hjalmarsson
{"title":"Diversification Across Characteristics","authors":"Erik Hjalmarsson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1536765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1536765","url":null,"abstract":"I study long-short portfolio strategies formed on seven different stock characteristics representing various measures of past returns, value, and size. Each individual characteristic results in a profitable portfolio strategy, but these single-characteristic strategies are all dominated by a diversified strategy that places equal weight on each of the single-characteristic strategies. The benefits of diversifying across characteristic-based long-short strategies are substantial and can be attributed to the mostly low, and sometimes substantially negative, correlation between the returns on the single-characteristic strategies.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130970578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions 面板预测回归中的斯坦博偏差
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1088784
Erik Hjalmarsson
{"title":"The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions","authors":"Erik Hjalmarsson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1088784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1088784","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in time-series predictive regressions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. A new bias-corrected estimator is proposed, which is shown to work well in finite samples and to lead to approximately normally distributed t-statistics. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"SE-4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126575382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 31
A Note on the Coefficient of Determination in Models with Infinite Variance Variables 关于无穷方差变量模型的决定系数的注记
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.996664
Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim, M. Loretan
{"title":"A Note on the Coefficient of Determination in Models with Infinite Variance Variables","authors":"Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim, M. Loretan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.996664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.996664","url":null,"abstract":"Since the seminal work of Mandelbrot (1963), alpha-stable distributions with infinite variance have been regarded as a more realistic distributional assumption than the normal distribution for some economic variables, especially financial data. After providing a brief survey of theoretical results on estimation and hypothesis testing in regression models with infinite-variance variables, we examine the statistical properties of the coefficient of determination in models with alpha-stable variables. If the regressor and error term share the same index of stability alpha","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122129867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Trade Adjustment and the Composition of Trade 贸易调整与贸易构成
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2006-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.903424
C. Erceg, L. Guerrieri, Christopher Gust
{"title":"Trade Adjustment and the Composition of Trade","authors":"C. Erceg, L. Guerrieri, Christopher Gust","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.903424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.903424","url":null,"abstract":"A striking feature of U.S. trade is that both imports and exports are heavily concentrated in capital goods and consumer durables. However, most open economy general equilibrium models ignore the marked divergence between the composition of trade flows and the sectoral composition of U.S. expenditure, and simply posit import and exports as depending on an aggregate measure of real activity (such as domestic absorption). In this paper, we use a SDGE model (SIGMA) to show that taking account of the expenditure composition of U.S. trade in an empirically-realistic way yields implications for the responses of trade to shocks that are markedly different from those of a \"standard\" framework that abstracts from such compositional differences. Overall, our analysis suggests that investment shocks, originating from either foreign or domestic sources, may serve as an important catalyst for trade adjustment, while implying a minimal depreciation of the real exchange rate. Moreover, while policy changes that boost investment abroad could serve to significantly improve the U.S. trade balance through an export channel, reforms oriented at stimulating foreign consumption would exert less of a corrective force on the trade balance, and primarily work by restraining real U.S. imports","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129794606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 77
New Methods for Inference in Long-Run Predictive Regressions 长期预测回归推理的新方法
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.894269
Erik Hjalmarsson
{"title":"New Methods for Inference in Long-Run Predictive Regressions","authors":"Erik Hjalmarsson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.894269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.894269","url":null,"abstract":"I develop new asymptotic results for long-horizon regressions with overlapping observations. I show that rather than using auto-correlation robust standard errors, the standard t-statistic can simply be divided by the square root of the forecasting horizon to correct for the effects of the overlap in the data. Further, when the regressors are persistent and endogenous, the long-run OLS estimator suffers from the same problems as does the short-run OLS estimator, and similar corrections and test procedures as those proposed for the short-run case should also be used in the long-run. In addition, I show that under an alternative of predictability, long-horizon estimators have a slower rate of convergence than short-run estimators and their limiting distributions are non-standard and fundamentally different from those under the null hypothesis. These asymptotic results are supported by simulation evidence and suggest that under standard econometric specifications, short-run inference is generally preferable to long-run inference. The theoretical results are illustrated with an application to long-run stock-return predictability.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125001166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Electronic Brokerage System Data 电子经纪系统数据中的订单流和汇率动态
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2005-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.709181
David W. Berger, A. Chaboud, S. Chernenko, E. Howorka, Raj S.K. Iyer, David Liu, Jonathan H. Wright
{"title":"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Electronic Brokerage System Data","authors":"David W. Berger, A. Chaboud, S. Chernenko, E. Howorka, Raj S.K. Iyer, David Liu, Jonathan H. Wright","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.709181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.709181","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the association between order flow and exchange rates using a new dataset representing a majority of global interdealer transactions in the two most-traded currency pairs at the one minute frequency over a six-year time period. This long span of high-frequency data allows us to gain new insights about the joint behavior of these series. We first confirm the presence of a substantial association between interdealer order flow and exchange rate returns at horizons ranging from 1Â min to two weeks, but find that the association is substantially weaker at longer horizons. We study the time-variation of the association between exchange rate returns and order flow both intradaily and over the long term, and show that the relationship appears to be stronger when market liquidity is lower. Overall, our study supports the view that liquidity effects play an important role in the relationship between order flow and exchange rate changes. This by no means rules out a role for order flow as a channel by which fundamental information is transmitted to the market, as we show that our findings are quite consistent with a recent model by Bacchetta and Van Wincoop (2006: Can information heterogeneity explain the exchange rate determination puzzle? American Economic Review, 96, pp. 552-576.) that combines both liquidity and information effects.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130319921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 207
What Makes Investors Over or Underweight? Explaining International Appetites for Foreign Equities 投资者为何增持或减持?解释国际投资者对外国股票的兴趣
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2004-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.600587
Carol C. Bertaut, Linda S. Kole
{"title":"What Makes Investors Over or Underweight? Explaining International Appetites for Foreign Equities","authors":"Carol C. Bertaut, Linda S. Kole","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.600587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.600587","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Surveys conducted in 2001, we analyze the determinants of 31 countries' international equity holdings. We show that investors in all countries underweight U.S. equities in their portfolios, many by more than they underweight foreign equities in general. Such behavior is surprising given the common perception of the United States as a desirable investment destination due to its well-developed legal and regulatory environment. Instead we find that investors in some countries are overweight in equities from other countries with which they have close regional or political ties. Such ties, along with distance, trade, issuance of U.S. ADRs or cross-listing on the London Stock exchange, market concentration, and estimated betas, help explain patterns of diversification. However, even when all these variables are included, we find significant fixed effects for most countries, suggesting that a considerable amount of cross-country variation in investment positions and in home bias remains to be explained. Our work confirms previous findings and extends results most completely documented for the United States to other major investor countries. But it also suggests caution should be used when interpreting results derived from studies of one or a few countries.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115531294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 44
Consumption, Durable Goods, and Transaction Costs 消费、耐用品和交易成本
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2003-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.382061
Robert F. Martin
{"title":"Consumption, Durable Goods, and Transaction Costs","authors":"Robert F. Martin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.382061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.382061","url":null,"abstract":"We study consumption of durable and nondurable goods when the durable good is subject to transaction costs. In the model, agents derive utility from a service flow of a durable good and a consumption flow of a nondurable good. The key feature of the model is the existence of a fixed transaction cost in the durable good market. The fixed cost induces an inaction region in the purchase of the durable good. More importantly, the inability to adjust the durable stock induces variation in consumption of the nondurable good over the inaction region. The variation is a function of the degree of complementarity between durable and nondurable goods in the period utility function, the rate of intertemporal substitution, and a precautionary motive induced by incomplete markets. We test the model using the PSID. Housing serves as the durable good. The data indicate an increase in consumption before moving to a smaller house and a decrease in consumption before moving to a larger house. This result is consistent with the model when there exists complementarity between the durable and nondurable good or when there is a strong precautionary effect.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"208 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115745140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 53
'Big Bang' Deregulation and Japanese Corporate Governance: A Survey of the Issues “大爆炸”式的放松管制与日本公司治理:问题综述
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 1998-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.133552
Michael S. Gibson
{"title":"'Big Bang' Deregulation and Japanese Corporate Governance: A Survey of the Issues","authors":"Michael S. Gibson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.133552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.133552","url":null,"abstract":"In November 1996, Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto announced a Big Bang policy to deregulate Japanese financial markets. Following a period of planning, implementation of the Big Bang began in April 1998 when all remaining restrictions on foreign exchange transactions were removed. It is scheduled to continue through March 2001. A listing of the deregulation agenda is dominated by measures to remove restrictions on how banks and securities firms do business and allow cross-entry of banks, securities firms, and insurers into each others’ businesses (Table 12.1).","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130709208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Raising an Inflation Target: The Japanese Experience with Abenomics 提高通胀目标:日本的安倍经济学经验
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2016.1168
Andrea De Michelis, Matteo Iacoviello
{"title":"Raising an Inflation Target: The Japanese Experience with Abenomics","authors":"Andrea De Michelis, Matteo Iacoviello","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2016.1168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2016.1168","url":null,"abstract":"This paper draws from Japan’s recent monetary experiment to examine the effects of an increase in the inflation target during a liquidity trap. We review Japanese data and examine through a VAR model how macroeconomic variables respond to an identified inflation target shock. We apply these findings to calibrate the effect of a shock to the inflation target in a new-Keynesian DSGE model of the Japanese economy. We argue that imperfect observability of the inflation target and a separate exchange rate shock are needed to successfully account for the behavior of nominal and real variables in Japan since late 2012. Our analysis indicates that Japan has made some progress towards overcoming deflation, but further measures are needed to raise inflation to 2 percent in a stable manner.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132509425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
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