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Technology, Geography, and Trade Over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1304
C. Mix
{"title":"Technology, Geography, and Trade Over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy","authors":"C. Mix","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2020.1304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2020.1304","url":null,"abstract":"I study the dynamic effects of changes in trade policy in a multi-country model with firms that make durable and destination-specific investments in exporting capacity. Using Mexican exporter-level data, I show that incumbent exporters to minor trade partners account for a smaller share of bilateral exports than do incumbent exporters to major trade partners, indicating a systematic difference in the persistence of the export decision across destinations. The model is calibrated to capture the positive relationship between exporting persistence and export volume, and predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth than liberalizations with major export destinations. Panel analysis on bilateral exports after free trade agreements is consistent with these predictions, con rming that the model is a useful tool for explaining export behavior. Furthermore, I find that heterogeneity in export churning across destinations is a key driver of aggregate dynamics and welfare gains from changes in trade policy.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125793554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Oil Prices and Consumption Across Countries and U.S. States 各国和美国各州的石油价格和消费
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1263
Andrea De Michelis, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Matteo Iacoviello
{"title":"Oil Prices and Consumption Across Countries and U.S. States","authors":"Andrea De Michelis, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Matteo Iacoviello","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2019.1263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2019.1263","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of oil prices on consumption across countries and U.S. states, by exploiting the time-series and cross-sectional variation in oil dependency of these economies. We build two large datasets: one with 55 countries over the years 1975-2018, and another with all U.S. states over the period 1989-2018. We then show that oil price declines generate positive effects on consumption in oil-importing economies, while depressing consumption in oil-exporting economies. We also document that oil price increases do more harm than the good afforded by oil price decreases both in the world and U.S. aggregates.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116856396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability 方差、风险溢价成分与国际股票收益可预测性
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1247
Juan M. Londoño, Nancy R. Xu
{"title":"Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability","authors":"Juan M. Londoño, Nancy R. Xu","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2019.1247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2019.1247","url":null,"abstract":"No abstract available.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116079850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions 机构投资者、美元和美国信贷状况
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1246
Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
{"title":"Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions","authors":"Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2019.1246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2019.1246","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a reduction in the supply of commercial and industrial loans by U.S. banks. An increase in the broad dollar index by 2.5 points (one standard deviation) reduces U.S. banks' corporate loan originations by 10 percent. This decline is driven by a reduction in the demand for loans on the secondary market where prices fall and liquidity worsens when the dollar appreciates, with stronger effects for riskier loans. Today, the main buyers of U.S. corporate loans---and, hence, suppliers of funding for these loans---are institutional investors, in particular mutual funds, which experience outflows when the dollar appreciates. A shift of traditional financial intermediation to these relatively unregulated entities, which are more sensitive to global developments, has led to the emergence of this new channel through which the dollar affects the U.S. economy, which we term the secondary market channel.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"1977 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128826826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Measuring the Implementation of the Fsb Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions in the European Union 衡量欧盟金融机构有效处置机制的Fsb关键属性的执行情况
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1238
Nicholas S. Coleman, A. Georgosouli, Tara Rice
{"title":"Measuring the Implementation of the Fsb Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions in the European Union","authors":"Nicholas S. Coleman, A. Georgosouli, Tara Rice","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2018.1238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1238","url":null,"abstract":"There are lingering concerns about the health of European banks and extensive market commentary about whether post-crisis regulatory reforms in Europe have adequately addressed these concerns. In June 2012, European policymakers released the broad outlines of a proposal for a \"European banking union\" to strengthen the banking sector and help assuage concerns of investors and depositors, however, uncertainty remains regarding how the new EU bank resolution regime, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), will work in practice. This paper addresses whether the BRRD has fulfilled the requirements of the FSB Key Attributes for Resolution Regimes, which many take to be the gold standard bank resolution framework. We find that the BRRD diverges from the FSB Key Attributes or allows variation at the Member State level in multiple areas. The majority of these variations point to slight inconsistencies with the FSB recommendations. That said, some variations may have a larger impact than others.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"188 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114217694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Estimating Unequal Gains Across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data 用供应商贸易数据估计美国消费者的不平等收益
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1220
Colin J. Hottman, R. Monarch
{"title":"Estimating Unequal Gains Across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data","authors":"Colin J. Hottman, R. Monarch","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2018.1220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1220","url":null,"abstract":"Using supplier-level trade data, we estimate the effect on consumer welfare from changes in U.S. imports both in the aggregate and for different household income groups from 1998 to 2014. To do this, we use consumer preferences which feature non-homotheticity both within sectors and across sectors. After structurally estimating the parameters of the model, using the universe of U.S. goods imports, we construct import price indexes in which a variety is defined as a foreign establishment producing an HS10 product that is exported to the United States. We find that lower income households experienced the most import price inflation, while higher income households experienced the least import price inflation during our time period. Thus, we do not find evidence that the consumption channel has mitigated the distributional effects of trade that have occurred through the nominal income channel in the United States over the past two decades.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114814763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Structural Change and Global Trade 结构变化与全球贸易
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1225
Logan Lewis, R. Monarch, Michael J. Sposi, Jing Zhang
{"title":"Structural Change and Global Trade","authors":"Logan Lewis, R. Monarch, Michael J. Sposi, Jing Zhang","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2018.1225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1225","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 55% of world expenditure in 1970 to 75% in 2015. Using a Ricardian trade model incorporating endogenous structural change, we quantify how this substantial shift in consumption has affected trade. Without structural change, we find that the world trade to GDP ratio would be 13 percentage points higher by 2015, about half the boost delivered from declining trade costs. In addition, a world without structural change would have had about 40% greater welfare gains from the trade integration over the past four decades. Absent further reductions in trade costs, ongoing structural change implies that world trade as a share of GDP would eventually decline. Going forward, higher income countries gain relatively more from reducing services trade costs than from reducing goods trade costs.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124367937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 30
Monetary Policy Uncertainty 货币政策的不确定性
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1215
Lucas Husted, J. Rogers, Bo Sun
{"title":"Monetary Policy Uncertainty","authors":"Lucas Husted, J. Rogers, Bo Sun","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2017.1215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2017.1215","url":null,"abstract":"We construct new measures of uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences - monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) indexes. We show that, under a variety of VAR identification schemes, positive shocks to uncertainty about monetary policy robustly raise credit spreads and reduce output. The effects are of comparable magnitude to those of conventional monetary policy shocks. We evaluate the usefulness of our MPU indexes, and examine the influence of Fed communication. Our analysis suggests that policy rate normalization that is accompanied by reduced uncertainty can help neutralize the contractionary effects of the rate increases themselves.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130933405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 206
Finance and Inequality: The Distributional Impacts of Bank Credit Rationing 金融与不平等:银行信贷配给的分配影响
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-08-31 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1211
M. A. Choudhary, Anil Jain
{"title":"Finance and Inequality: The Distributional Impacts of Bank Credit Rationing","authors":"M. A. Choudhary, Anil Jain","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2017.1211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2017.1211","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze reductions in bank credit using a natural experiment where unprecedented flooding differentially affected banks that were more exposed to flooded regions in Pakistan. Using a unique dataset that covers the universe of consumer loans in Pakistan and this exogenous shock to bank funding, we find two key results. First, banks disproportionately reduce credit to new and less-educated borrowers, following an increase in their funding costs. Second, the credit reduction is not compensated by relatively more lending by less-affected banks. The empirical evidence suggests that adverse selection is the primary cause for banks disproportionately reducing credit to new borrowers.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131391522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies 非常规货币和汇率政策
Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1194
Joseph E. Gagnon, Tamim A. Bayoumi, Juan M. Londoño, Christian Saborowski, Horacio. Sapriza
{"title":"Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies","authors":"Joseph E. Gagnon, Tamim A. Bayoumi, Juan M. Londoño, Christian Saborowski, Horacio. Sapriza","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2017.1194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2017.1194","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country's current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country's current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The effects of purchases of foreign assets spill over to other countries in proportion to their degree of international financial integration. We also find that increases in US bond yields are associated with increases in foreign bond yields and in stock prices, as well as with depreciations of foreign currencies, but that all of these effects are smaller on days of US unconventional monetary policy announcements. We develop a theoretical model that is broadly consistent with our empirical results and that highlights the potential usefulness of domestic unconventional policies as responses to the effects of foreign policies of a similar type.","PeriodicalId":287856,"journal":{"name":"Board of Governors: International Finance Discussion Papers (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125132165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
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