GTAP Technical Paper Series最新文献

Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: the Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models gge模型的现代贸易理论:阿明顿、克鲁格曼和梅利茨模型

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2015-02-20 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.010101SM1F

P. Dixon, M. Jerie, Maureen T. Rimmer

{"title":"Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: the Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models","authors":"P. Dixon, M. Jerie, Maureen T. Rimmer","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.010101SM1F","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.010101SM1F","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is for CGE modelers and others interested in modern trade theory. The Armington specification of trade, assuming country-level product differentiation, has been central to CGE modelling for 40 years. Starting in the 1980s with Krugman and more recently Melitz, trade theorists have preferred specifications with firm-level product differentiation. We draw out the connections between the Armington, Krugman and Melitz models, deriving them as successively less restrictive special cases of an encompassing model. We then investigate optimality properties of the Melitz model, demonstrating that a Melitz general equilibrium is the solution to a global, cost-minimizing problem. This suggests that envelope theorems can be used in interpreting results from a Melitz model. Next we explain the Balistreri-Rutherford decomposition in which a Melitz general equilibrium model is broken into Melitz sectoral models combined with an Armington general equilibrium model. Balistreri and Rutherford see their decomposition as a basis of an iterative approach for solving Melitz general equilibrium models. We see it as a means for interpreting Melitz results as the outcome of an Armington simulation with additional shocks to productivity and preferences variables. With CGE modelers in mind, we report computational experience in solving a Melitz general equilibrium model using GEMPACK. Key words: Armington, Krugman and Melitz; CGE modelling; international trade. JEL codes: F12; D40; D58; C6","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"25 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120873310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 60

Extending the GTAP Data Base and Model to Cover Domestic Support Issues using the EU as Example 以欧盟为例，扩展GTAP数据库和模型以涵盖国内支持问题

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-06-25 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp35

Kirsten Urban, H. Jensen, M. Brockmeier

{"title":"Extending the GTAP Data Base and Model to Cover Domestic Support Issues using the EU as Example","authors":"Kirsten Urban, H. Jensen, M. Brockmeier","doi":"10.21642/gtap.tp35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/gtap.tp35","url":null,"abstract":"The EU Single Farm Payment (SFP) is currently distributed in proportion to primary factor shares in version 8 of the GTAP database. In this paper, we investigate whether this way of modeling the EU SFP makes a difference in analyzing agricultural policy reforms. To do so, we create alternative versions of the GTAP database to compare the effects with the default setting in GTAP. Employing OECD data, along with the GTAP framework, we vary the assumptions about the allocation of the SFP. In the process, we demonstrate how to alter and update the GTAP database to implement domestic support of OECD PSE tables. We provide a detailed overview supplemented with assumptions of payment allocation, shock calculations and in particular, the Altertax procedure to update value flows and price equations extended in the GTAP model. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of those assumptions by simulating a 100% removal of the SFP using the deviating versions of GTAP database. This sensitivity analysis reveals strong differences in results, but particularly in production responses of food and agricultural sectors that decrease with an increasing degree of decoupling. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the effect on welfare and the trade balance decreases with an increasing degree of decoupling. This experiment shows that the allocation of the SFP can have strong impacts on simulation results.","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"199 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124383081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

New Estimates of Soil and Biomass Carbon Stocks for Global Economic Models 全球经济模型对土壤和生物质碳储量的新估计

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-03-28 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.283432

H. Gibbs, S. Yui, R. Plevin

{"title":"New Estimates of Soil and Biomass Carbon Stocks for Global Economic Models","authors":"H. Gibbs, S. Yui, R. Plevin","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.283432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.283432","url":null,"abstract":"We synthesized a range of geographically-explicit forest, grassland and cropland biomass and soil carbon input data sources and used geographic information systems (GIS) software to calculate new estimates of soil and biomass carbon stocks for use with global economic models, particularly for the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP). Our results quantify the average amount of carbon stored in soil and biomass in each of the 246 countries, stratified by agro-ecological zones (available in the accompanying spreadsheet). We also provide the data aggregated to the 134 regions defined for the GTAP 8.1 database both in spreadsheet form and in GTAP’s native binary file format. Finally, we provide an add-on to FlexAgg2 program to further aggregate the 134 regions as desired. Our analysis makes substantial refinements to the estimates of carbon stocks used for modeling carbon emissions from indirect land use change. The spatial detail of our analysis is a major advantage over previous databases because it provides estimates tailored to the regions of interest and better accounts for the variation of carbon stocks across the landscape, and between wetland and non-wetland regions.","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126340824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 21

Agro-ecological Zone Emission Factor (AEZ-EF) Model (v47) 农业生态区排放因子模型(v47)

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-03-28 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp34

R. Plevin, H. Gibbs, J. Duffy, S. Yui, S. Yeh

引用次数: 33

Analysis of Climate Policies with GDyn-E 基于GDyn-E的气候政策分析

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2013-10-16 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp32

A. Golub

引用次数: 31

GTAP-POV: A Framework for Assessing the National Poverty Impacts of Global Economic and Environmental Policies GTAP-POV:评估全球经济和环境政策对国家贫困影响的框架

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2011-11-01 DOI: 10.18235/0000178

T. Hertel, M. Verma, M. Ivanic, A. Rios

引用次数: 19

Systematic Sensitivity Analysis with Respect to Correlated Variations in Parameters and Shocks 参数和冲击相关变化的系统灵敏度分析

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2011-03-25 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp30

Mark Horridge, K. Pearson

{"title":"Systematic Sensitivity Analysis with Respect to Correlated Variations in Parameters and Shocks","authors":"Mark Horridge, K. Pearson","doi":"10.21642/gtap.tp30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/gtap.tp30","url":null,"abstract":"We show how you can carry out systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to parameters and/or shocks, which vary according to a specified covariance matrix. You can use the existing SSA tools in RunGTAP or RunGEM to do this if your model is implemented in GEMPACK. Those SSA tools assume that all parameters or shocks are varying independently (i.e., the distributions of all parameters or shocks are uncorrelated) or together (i.e., are completely correlated). The techniques in this paper remove those restrictions. However, users need to make small modifications to the TAB file for the model. Different modifications are needed for different SSA scenarios. Further, the standard SSA procedure built into RunGTAP and RunGEM allows you to compute the sensitivity of model results either with respect to variations in parameter values or with respect to variations in shock values, but you cannot vary both parameters and shocks at the same time. Our discussion concentrates on the parameter case. However, we later show how shock variation may be modelled as a type of parameter variation. This opens the door to simultaneous variation of shocks and parameters. We include worked examples of the techniques described, based on the standard GTAP Model.","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127619998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 17

Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE 连接部分和一般均衡模型:使用TASTE的GTAP应用

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2010-02-12 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.283427

B. Narayanan, T. Hertel, Mark Horridge

{"title":"Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE","authors":"B. Narayanan, T. Hertel, Mark Horridge","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.283427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.283427","url":null,"abstract":"CGE models are utilized for the evaluation of trade policy reforms, yet they are typically highly aggregated, limiting their usefulness to trade negotiators interested in impacts at the tariff line. Partial Equilibrium (PE) models used for disaggregate analysis lack the benefits of an economy-wide analysis required to examine the overall impact of trade policy reforms. This suggests the need for a PE-GE, nested modeling framework to support trade policy analysis. In this paper, we develop a PE model that captures international trade, domestic consumption and output, using CET and CES structures, market clearing conditions and price linkages, nested within the standard GTAP Model. In addition, we extend the welfare decomposition of Huff and Hertel (2001) to this PE-GE model to contrast the sources of welfare gain among models. To illustrate the value-added of this model, we examine the impact of multi-lateral tariff liberalization on the Indian economy, with special focus on the auto sector, using PE, GE and PE-GE models. The PE model does not predict the change in overall size and price level for the industry well, while the GE model underestimates the aggregate welfare gain due to tariff averaging. It also fails to account for the change in industry composition resulting from trade reform. These findings are robust to wide variation in model parameters. We conclude that the linked model is superior to both the GE and PE counterparts.","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129841828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labor Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows 用双边移民流动模型衡量劳动力流动的影响

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2007-11-30 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp28

T. Walmsley, Alan Winters, S. A. Ahmed

{"title":"Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labor Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows","authors":"T. Walmsley, Alan Winters, S. A. Ahmed","doi":"10.21642/gtap.tp28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/gtap.tp28","url":null,"abstract":"The economics literature increasingly recognizes the importance of migration and its ties with many other aspects of development and policy. Examples include the role of international remittances (Harrison et al, 2003) or those immigrant-links underpinning the migration-trade nexus (Gould, 1994). More recently Walmsley and Winters (2005) utilised a Global Migration model (GMig) to demonstrate that lifting restrictions on the movement of natural persons would significantly increase global welfare with the majority of benefits accruing to developing countries. Although an important result, the lack of bilateral labor migration data forced Walmsley and Winters (2005) to make approximations in important areas and naturally precluded their tracking bilateral migration agreements. In a new technical paper, Walmsley, Winters, and Ahmed incorporate bilateral labor flows into the GMig model developed by Walmsley and Winters (2005) to examine the impact of liberalizing the temporary movement of natural persons. Quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labor in the developed economies are increased by 3% of their labor forces. This additional labor is supplied by the developing economies. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries, and that those on unskilled labor are more burdensome than those on skilled labor. Developed economies increasing their skilled and unskilled labor forces by 3% raise the real incomes of their permanent residents. Most of those gains arise from the lifting of quotas on unskilled labor. On average the permanent residents of developing countries also gain in terms of real incomes from sending unskilled and skilled labor, albeit the gains are lower for skilled labor. While results differ across developing economies, most gain as a result of the higher remittances sent home.","PeriodicalId":281904,"journal":{"name":"GTAP Technical Paper Series","volume":"365 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122342374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 61

Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners--A Mathematical Programming Approach 调和中国内地、香港及其主要贸易伙伴的贸易统计——一种数学规划方法

GTAP Technical Paper Series Pub Date : 2007-09-27 DOI: 10.21642/gtap.tp27

Zhi Wang, M. Gehlhar, S. Yao

引用次数: 7