Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World最新文献

{"title":"Towards a model based asset deterioration framework represented by probabilistic relational models","authors":"Haoyuan Zhang, D. Marsh","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-83","url":null,"abstract":"Most asset deterioration tools are designed for a specific application, as a consequence, a small change of the specification may result in a complete change of the tool. Inspired by the model-based approach of separating problem specification from analysis technique, we propose a model-based asset deterioration assessment framework using probabilistic relational models. The probabilistic relational models express abstract probabilistic dependency covers a range of deterioration modelling assumptions. An expert in the domain of asset deterioration can then use his knowledge of the factors that affect deterioration to customise the abstract models to a specific application, without requiring a detailed understanding the underlying computational framework. We illustrate the use of the framework with multiple variants of deterioration models. can be adapted when there is insufficient data, both with expert knowledge (Frangopol et al., 2004, Zhang and Marsh, 2018), or by learning from similar groups (Memarzadeh et al., 2016, Zhang and Marsh, 2018). In the work of Zhang and Marsh (2018), six generic BN models for asset deterioration were developed, which both provides us the possibility of adopt different deterioration models, but also enables us to include alternative data and unused expert knowledge. These model variants cannot yet be presented to an asset deterioration domain expert in a unified framework: adapting the underlying concepts to a particular context requires a deep understanding of their implementation as BNs. In model-based machine learning (MBML) (see Bishop (2013) and Ghahramani (2015)), models and problem specifications are defined in a compact language, while inference or machine learning algorithm codes are generated automatically. Bayesian networks are such a language, though they lack structure. More recently, probabilistic programming languages such as Figaro (Pfeffer, 2009), has been developed which could also be used in our framework. Model-based approaches, both in MBML and MBSA, often use the object-oriented paradigm to provide a library of generalized models for reuse. This is not provided by traditional BNs, with a fixed set of variables and relationships. This issue has been widely researched for BNs, with proposals including idioms in Neil et al. (2000) and fragments in Laskey and Mahoney (2000). Probabilistic relational models (PRM), developed by Koller (1999) combines relational structure with probabilistic graphical models (i.e. BNs). A PRM combines probabilistic dependencies with a relational schema that describes the entities in the problem domain. This representation provides a separation between model library and structure relationships. Therefore, we propose to develop a model-based framework for asset deterioration assessment in the spirit of MBSA. The framework separates reusable low-level models from modelling choices and asset descriptions. The framework is encoded with a PRM representation of a hierarchica","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131303288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A PMS-MMDD model for reliability assessment of multi-state phased-mission system","authors":"L. Xiangyu, Li Yan-feng, Hongzhong Huang, Junyu Guo, E. Zio","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-310","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130210795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modular global uncertainty analysis of event-driven indicators of system’s availability","authors":"P. Stano, M. Spirzewski","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-331","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128912162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Air traffic safety in relation to visualization systems reliability","authors":"J. Skorupski, P. Ferduła","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-168","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122829227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications from major accident causation theories to activity-related risk analysis – an application to the Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming industry","authors":"Xue Yang, I. Utne, S. M. Holen, I. Holmen","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-232","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120890636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fault diagnosis and remaining useful life prediction of multiple deteriorating components in hybrid dynamical system","authors":"Om Prakash, A. Samantaray, R. Bhattacharyya","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-123","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116495694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advances in component fault trees","authors":"Bernhard Kaiser, D. Schneider, R. Adler, D. Domis, Felix Möhrle, A. Berres, M. Zeller, K. Höfig, M. Rothfelder","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-103","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125455126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of human factors on threats in sewage treatment plants","authors":"Magdalena Łój-Pilch, A. Zakrzewska, E. Zielewicz","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-242","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124092247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic safety assessment and state prediction of cranes based on fuzzy theory","authors":"G. Shen, X. Zhang, X. Tang, S. Wang, D. Xiang","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-119","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120958314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reviewing macro level factors as a foundation for understanding quality and patient safety improvement efforts across countries","authors":"Terese Johannessen, E. Ree, S. Wiig, H. Bovenkamp, R. Bal","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-26","url":null,"abstract":"This paper takes a macro perspective on quality and safety in elderly care, focusing on the role of the macro level context in two European countries; Norway and the Netherlands. The aim is to conduct a comparison of the healthcare systems as a foundation to understand quality and patient safety improvement efforts in elderly care across the two countries. Our methodological approach is to conduct a review of macro level factors as suggested by previous studies such as governance and financing structure, role of different actors, and types of initiatives taken. Data was collected from open sources such as national statistics, governmental reports, and web pages of key actors at the macro level. The similarities and differences are discussed to highlight the main areas where improvement efforts need to take country-specific factors into account when learning across countries.","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127828410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}