{"title":"Building cyber resilience through a discursive approach to “big cyber” threat landscapes","authors":"T. Grøtan","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-390","url":null,"abstract":"Cyber safety, security and resilience of Critical Infrastructures (CI) and critical societal functions is a contemporary challenge. To understand the bigger picture, we may build composite threat landscapes in which vulnerabilities and threats combine and travel across distinct domains between which expertise, competence, experience and knowledge horizon related to safety, security and risk may differ substantially. Additional sensitization towards emerging cyber threats is however needed. Inspired by the post-normal “science of what-if”, the “BigCyber” model advance threat landscapes further into sensitivity to hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabilities. The approach is exemplified in terms of smart metering of household electricity consumption. The need for discursive support for different stakeholders relating to threat landscapes is identified, and a discursive framework for stepwise nurturing of polycentric governance is outlined. The framework can also be used to elaborate and support the idea of resilience landscapes of autonomous entities, facilitating a polycentric approach to cyber resilience. collecting extensive information from installations without the customer's consent, could be coined as the \"industrial Big Other\" In the 1990's, the prospect of \"trusted\" computer systems prevailed. Today, few if any ICT systems are delivered with assurances that support this. Practically no ICT system, including CI, may preclude the possibility of intrusion, disturbance and hacking. Big-scale consumer innovations, e.g. autonomous cars and home appliances, are seemingly always lagging in computer security. Some voices even claim that \"computer security is broken from top to bottom\" (Economist, 2017). Potential countermeasures are often invasive, e.g. on privacy, often unduly playing on strings of fear and anxiety. Public initiatives, e.g. from the EU (Galbusera and Giannopoulos, 2016) aiming for public, semantic web descriptions of critical infrastructures may also be exploited to enable sophisticated attacks. We cannot expect of holistic, cross-nation, crosssector approaches to these challenges. The obstacle is not just the tremendous information coordination challenge, but also the incommensurate and diverse motives and objectives across boundaries of private vs public, classified vs unclassified, national vs international. Information cannot be shared, nor trusted, in one \"heap\". Motives and objectives are incommensurate, increasingly located in an atmosphere of post-fact attitudes, fake news, and information warfare targeting societal trust, in which even security agencies may find it difficult to navigate.","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115262289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tor-Olav Nævestad, A. Laiou, K. Størkersen, R. Phillips, G. Yannis, T. Bjørnskau, A. Amundsen
{"title":"Maritime safety culture and safety behaviours in Greece and Norway: Comparing professional seafarers and private leisure boat users","authors":"Tor-Olav Nævestad, A. Laiou, K. Størkersen, R. Phillips, G. Yannis, T. Bjørnskau, A. Amundsen","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-364","url":null,"abstract":"The present study compares professional seafarers and private leisure boat users in Norway and Greece. The aims of the present study are to examine the safety behaviours related to personal injuries and accidents among these groups and to study the factors influencing these behaviours. This will serve as a backdrop to a general discussion of why the level of fatalities is higher among private boat users than among professional seafarers and what the former may learn from the latter. The study is based on surveys to crew members on Norwegian and Greek cargo and passenger vessels and leisure boat users in Norway and Greece. Our study indicates that while unsafe behaviours related to work pressure and risk taking are important among professional seafarers (i.e. risk acceptance and violations), unsafe behaviours related to the leisure/holiday situation was important for the leisure boat users (i.e. alcohol use while driving a boat). Additionally, we discuss how the situation of private leisure boat users is less regulated than that of professional seafarers. Our study indicates that both in the professional and the private setting, norms for interaction and conduct seem to be influenced by norms and expectations rooted in different socio-cultural groups, e.g. the national culture, the specific sector in question, the organisations and in peer groups. (e.g. safety, mobility, respect, politeness) (Nævestad & Bjørnskau, 2012). An important aspect of our approach is that overall TSC is a composite of overlapping safety cultures associated with different types of sociocultural unit. Thus, we apply the safety culture concept to the national level, to organisations and to peer groups in the present study. 1.3 Previous research There seem to be few studies examining the relationship between safety behaviours and work accidents in the maritime sector, although there are some exceptions (cf. Håvold and Nesset, 2009). The existing studies within this area do, however, indicate that demographic factors (age, nationality, position, line of work) influence work accident risk, and we should assume that this relationship is mediated by some kind of unsafe behaviour (e.g. risk taking, violations), resulting in injuries. Younger seafarers have a higher risk (Hansen et al 2002; Jensen et al 2004). Foreigners have a considerably lower accident risk than local (in the specific study, Danish) citizens (Hansen et al 2002). Previous research also indicates that alcohol consumption may be an important risk factor in the maritime sector (Akhtar & Bouwer Utne 2014, Hetherington et al 2014), and that alcohol and drug abuse are greater for seafarers compared to workers ashore (Nitka 1990; Kariris 2012 in Zhang & Zhao 2017), partly because of their working situation (e.g. social isolation). However, given the relatively unregulated character of private boat use, we may perhaps assume that alcohol consumption “boating while under the influence”, is an even more important risk fact","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115337727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Considerations related to insurance of cruise traffic in the arctic waters","authors":"K. Trantzas, O. Gudmestad, E. Abrahamsen","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-17","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116550925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling demand-caused failures. Estimation procedure","authors":"R. Mullor, A. Sánchez, P. Martorell, S. Martorell","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-74","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122345518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. D. L. Fuente, Antonio J. Guillén López, A. C. Márquez, Antonio Sola Rosique, J. F. G. Fernández, P. M. D. Leon, V. González-Prida
{"title":"Strategic view of an assets health index for making long-term decisions in different industries","authors":"A. D. L. Fuente, Antonio J. Guillén López, A. C. Márquez, Antonio Sola Rosique, J. F. G. Fernández, P. M. D. Leon, V. González-Prida","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-146","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122548324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Leva, A. Caimo, R. Duane, M. Demichela, Lorenzo Comberti
{"title":"Task complexity, and operators’ capabilities as predictor of human error: Modeling framework and an example of application","authors":"M. Leva, A. Caimo, R. Duane, M. Demichela, Lorenzo Comberti","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-61","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the initial framework adopted to assess human error in assembly tasks at a large manufacturing company in Ireland. The model to characterize and predict human error presented in this paper is linked conceptually to the model introduced by Rasch (1980), where the probability of a specified outcome is modelled as a logistic function of the difference between the person capacity and item difficulty. The model needs to be modified to take into account an outcome that is not dichotomous and feed into the interaction between two macro factors: (a) Task complexity: that summarises all factors contributing to physical and mental workload requirements for execution of a given operative task & (b) Human capability: that considered the skills, training and experience of the people facing the tasks, representing a synthesis of their physical and cognitive abilities to verify whether or not they are matching the task requirements. Task complexity can be evaluated as a mathematical construct considering the compound effects of Mental Workload Demands and Physical Workload Demands associated to an operator task. Similarly, operator capability can be estimated on the basis of the operators’ set of cognitive capabilities and physical conditions. A linear regression model was used to fit a dataset collected in R. The estimation of task complexity and operator skills was used to estimate human performance in a Poisson regression model. The preliminary results suggest that both elements are significant in predicting error occurrence. human nature (characteristics, feelings, and behavioural traits) and the impact of the features of the workstation on human nature (typology of activities, working load, anxiety induced, environmental factors etc.) was required to holistically determine the performance shaping factors for the workstations under examination. The focus is on the role of operator’s capability to complete tasks and the means to reduce human errors whilst retraining product quality. Changes were proposed for the assembly lines at the dispatching stations, including changes in the procedures and training to employ an understanding of human performance and improvements to safety, with an overall beneficial impact on both productivity and quality. The researcher conducted a task analysis of the critical activities completed by operators when packing out the variety of product units at two primary workstations. Questionnaires were prepared examining the skills requirements, skills rating of operators, mental workload requirements, physical workload requirements, perceived task complexity and motivation. Finally, the implementation of an applied model Task Execution Reliability Model (TERM) was used to identify the main fac","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114388248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability modeling for dependent competing failure processes between component degradation and system performance deterioration","authors":"Yugang Zhang, Jingyi Liu, Bifeng Song, T. Yu","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-311","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"265 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129876661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk assessment in military transport—human factor in estimation of risk","authors":"J. Ryczyński, M. Nowakowska","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-43","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129958357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Maintenance resources allocation for the profit maximization of a park of identical systems","authors":"W. Zhu, B. Castanier","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-79","url":null,"abstract":"For the park (system of systems) consisting of a set of identical systems, the mission of each time unit is shared by all the survival systems which could be overexploited to achieve the global park objective. This overexploitation is stressful for each individual system and increases its respective degradation. This leads to increase the probability of failure of the system before the next planned maintenance. Otherwise, the system can be subject to operational constraints such as the reduction of exploitation because of an excessive degradation. Such constraint could affect the overall objective. We propose in this study to analyze the problem of the maintenance resource allocation on a park of n identical systems for ensuring a given production goal on a two successive maintenance period. Each system is degrading due to cumulative load and can be totally or partially renewed only during planned maintenance. We propose to construct a simulation-based model for the profit assessment of the whole park on a given time horizon for different maintenance allocation policies given the different assumptions described above.","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126800276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Brück, G. Gänssmantel, A. Kreuser, C. Müller, E. Piljugin, J. Stiller
{"title":"Probabilistic analysis of faults affecting multiple trains of the electrical power supply system of nuclear power plants","authors":"B. Brück, G. Gänssmantel, A. Kreuser, C. Müller, E. Piljugin, J. Stiller","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-170","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124033532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}