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Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects 非常规货币政策冲击的公告分解及其影响
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01315
{"title":"Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects","authors":"","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01315","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks exploiting heteroskedasticity in intraday data, accommodating both changes in the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements. I compute decompositions with respect to Fed Funds, forward guidance, asset purchase, and Fed information shocks from January 1996 to December 2019. The decompositions illustrate which announcements of unconventional policy measures had significant effects during the Great Recession. Overall, forward guidance and asset purchases have significant effects on yields, spreads, equities, and uncertainty, but the effects of monetary policy vary over time, particularly asset purchases.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132240041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Trust, Happiness, and Pro-Social Behavior 信任、快乐和亲社会行为
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01303
Stefano Carattini, Matthias Roesti
{"title":"Trust, Happiness, and Pro-Social Behavior","authors":"Stefano Carattini, Matthias Roesti","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01303","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper combines several large-scale surveys and empirical strategies to shed new light on the determinants of cooperative behavior. We provide evidence indicating that the level of trust maximizing subjective well-being tends to be above the income maximizing level. Higher trust is also linked to more cooperative and pro-social behaviors, including the private provision of global public goods such as climate change mitigation. Consistent with “warm glow” theories of pro-social behavior, our results indicate that individuals may enjoy being more cooperative than what would lead them to maximize income, which can be reflected in higher levels of subjective well-being.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What Is the Active Prevalence of COVID-19? 什么是COVID-19的活跃流行率?
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01302
Mu-Jeung Yang, Marinho Bertanha, Nathan Seegert, Maclean Gaulin, Adam Looney, Brian Orleans, Andrew T. Pavia, Kristina Stratford, Matthew Samore, Steven Alder
{"title":"What Is the Active Prevalence of COVID-19?","authors":"Mu-Jeung Yang, Marinho Bertanha, Nathan Seegert, Maclean Gaulin, Adam Looney, Brian Orleans, Andrew T. Pavia, Kristina Stratford, Matthew Samore, Steven Alder","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01302","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We provide a method to track the active prevalence of COVID-19 in real time, correcting for time-varying sample selection in symptom-based testing data and incomplete tracking of recovered cases and fatalities. Our method only requires publicly available data on positive testing rates in combination with one parameter, which we estimate based on a representative randomized sample of nearly 10,000 individuals tested in Utah in May and June 2020. We validate our method using external studies in Indiana in April 2020 and two counties in Utah in March 2021. In all three locations and times, our estimates of latent prevalence are within the 95 percent confidence intervals of prevalence estimates from randomized testing. Applying our method to all 50 states, we show that true prevalence is 2-3 times higher than publicly reported.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Voice and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Field Experiment 声音和政治参与:来自实地实验的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01320
Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann
{"title":"Voice and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Field Experiment","authors":"Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01320","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We conduct a natural field experiment with a major European party to test whether giving party supporters more voice increases their engagement in the party's electoral campaign. In the experiment, the party asked a random subset of supporters for their opinions on the importance of different policy areas. Giving supporters opportunities to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the campaign as measured using behavioral data from the party's smartphone application. Survey data reveals that giving voice also increases other margins of campaign effort as well as perceived voice. Our evidence highlights the importance of voice for increasing political engagement.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124576362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-Cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes 让他们进来还是把他们赶出去?顺周期失业援助变化的劳动力市场效应
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01310
Gerard Domènech-Arumí, Silvia Vannutelli
{"title":"Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-Cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes","authors":"Gerard Domènech-Arumí, Silvia Vannutelli","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01310","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of pro-cyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (i) shorter non-employment duration, especially among younger workers; (ii) higher labor force exit and other programs' take-up, especially among older workers; (iii) lower wages upon re-employment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term benefit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Stable Income, Stable Family 收入稳定，家庭稳定
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01304
Jason M. Lindo, Krishna Regmi, Isaac D. Swensen
{"title":"Stable Income, Stable Family","authors":"Jason M. Lindo, Krishna Regmi, Isaac D. Swensen","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01304","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We document the effect of unemployment insurance generosity on divorce and fertility using an identification strategy that leverages state-level changes in maximum benefits over time and comparisons across workers who have been laid off and those that have not been laid off. The results indicate that higher maximum benefit levels mitigate the effects of layoffs. In particular, they mitigate increases in divorce associated with men's layoffs; increases in separations associated with women's layoffs; reductions in fertility associated with men's layoffs; and increases in fertility associated with women's layoffs.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wealth-Income Ratios in Free Market Capitalism: Switzerland, 1900-2020 自由市场资本主义的财富收入比:瑞士，1900-2020
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01313
Enea Baselgia, Isabel Z. Martínez
{"title":"Wealth-Income Ratios in Free Market Capitalism: Switzerland, 1900-2020","authors":"Enea Baselgia, Isabel Z. Martínez","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01313","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We show that over the 20th century, in Switzerland the ratio of private wealth to national income, βpt, did not follow a U-shaped pattern, thereby contrasting the evolution in most European countries. Instead, the ratio was exceptionally stable at around 500%. We argue that this consistently high βpt was the result of geopolitical factors combined with Switzerland's capital friendly policy-making. Since the turn of the century, however, βpt has been on a rapid rise to reach 793% in 2020. This exceptionally fast increase is mainly driven by large capital gains, especially in housing wealth.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving Estimates of Transitions from Satellite Data: A Hidden Markov Model Approach 改进卫星数据过渡估计:一种隐马尔可夫模型方法
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01301
Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Adrian L. Torchiana, Ted Rosenbaum, Paul Scott
{"title":"Improving Estimates of Transitions from Satellite Data: A Hidden Markov Model Approach","authors":"Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Adrian L. Torchiana, Ted Rosenbaum, Paul Scott","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01301","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Satellite-based image classification facilitates low-cost measurement of the Earth's surface composition. However, misclassified imagery can lead to misleading conclusions about transition processes. We propose a correction for transition rate estimates based on the econometric measurement error literature to extract the signal (truth) from its noisy measurement (satellite-based classifications). No ground-truth data is required in the implementation. Our proposed correction produces consistent estimates of transition rates, confirmed by longitudinal validation data, while transition rates without correction are severely biased. Using our approach, we show how eliminating deforestation in Brazil's Atlantic forest region through 2040 could save $100 billion in CO2 emissions.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125842150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Influence-Seeking in U.S. Corporate Elites' Campaign Contribution Behavior 美国企业精英竞选献金行为中的影响力寻求
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01321
Edoardo Teso
{"title":"Influence-Seeking in U.S. Corporate Elites' Campaign Contribution Behavior","authors":"Edoardo Teso","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01321","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I show that U.S. corporate elites use contributions to political campaigns as a tool of political influence by leveraging a new panel on the contributions to members of U.S. Congress (MCs) from 401,557 corporate leaders of 14,807 U.S. corporations over 1999-2018. Donations increase by 11% when a politician is assigned to a committee dealing with policy issues relevant to a corporate leader's company. The effect is driven by donations to MCs with the greatest power in the committees. I estimate that, absent an influence motive, donations from corporate leaders during this period would have been lower by $20 million.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115786210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Challenging Encounters and Within-Physician Practice Variability 具有挑战性的遭遇和医生实践的可变性
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01314
Gabriel Chodick, Yoav Goldstein, Ity Shurtz, Dan Zeltzer
{"title":"Challenging Encounters and Within-Physician Practice Variability","authors":"Gabriel Chodick, Yoav Goldstein, Ity Shurtz, Dan Zeltzer","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01314","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine how physician decisions are impacted by difficult cases—encounters with newly diagnosed cancer patients. Using detailed administrative data, we compare primary care physicians' decisions in visits that occurred before and after difficult cases and matched comparison cases by the same physicians on other dates. Immediately following a difficult case, physicians increase referrals for common tests, including diagnostic tests unrelated to cancer. The effect lasts only for about an hour and is not driven by patient selection or schedule disruption. The results highlight difficult encounters as a source of variability in physician practice.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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