ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)最新文献_第2页

Regional Economic Impact of COVID-19: The Role of Sectoral Structure and Trade Linkages 2019冠状病毒病的区域经济影响:部门结构和贸易联系的作用

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797148

Philipp Meinen, Roberta Serafini, Ottavia Papagalli

引用次数: 12

Global Impacts of Us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks 美国货币政策不确定性冲击的全球影响

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797133

Povilas Lastauskas, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

引用次数: 6

Statistical Decision Functions with Judgment 具有判断的统计决策函数

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797131

S. Manganelli

引用次数: 0

Text-Based Recession Probabilities 基于文本的衰退概率

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797136

Helena Le Mezo, M. Ferrari

引用次数: 1

The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries COVID-19危机与消费:来自六个欧盟国家的调查证据

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3751097

Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, T. Jappelli, G. Kenny

{"title":"The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries","authors":"Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, T. Jappelli, G. Kenny","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3751097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3751097","url":null,"abstract":"Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first peak of the pandemic until October 2020. The results show that this concern causes a significant reduction in non-durable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios that involve positive and negative income shocks. Fears of the financial consequences of the pandemic induce a significant reduction in the marginal propensity to consume, an effect consistent with models of precautionary saving and liquidity constraints. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns through use of panel fixed effects and partial identification methods, which account also for time-varying unobservable variables, and provide informative identification regions of the average treatment effect of the concern for Covid-19 under weak assumptions.","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"142 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122671868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 36

Whatever it Takes to Save the Planet? Central Banks and Unconventional Green Policy 不惜一切代价拯救地球?中央银行和非常规绿色政策

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3827496

A. Ferrari, Valerio Nispi Landi

引用次数: 66

Reversal Interest Rate and Macroprudential Policy 逆转利率与宏观审慎政策

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2866/907199

Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Christoffer Kok

引用次数: 11

Borrowing Constraints, Own Labour and Homeownership: Does it Pay to Paint Your Walls? 借贷限制、自有劳动力和房屋所有权:粉刷墙壁值得吗?

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3703657

P. Lindner, Thomas Y. Mathä, Giuseppe Pulina, Michael Ziegelmeyer

引用次数: 2

The Wage-Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Does the Growth Regime Matter? 欧元区的工资-价格传递:增长机制重要吗?

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3721989

E. Hahn

{"title":"The Wage-Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Does the Growth Regime Matter?","authors":"E. Hahn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3721989","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3721989","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores whether the transmission mechanism between wages and prices in the euro area is affected by the growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation declined by less than was widely expected during the past recessions and rose by less during the subsequent recoveries. This paper analyses whether the wage-price pass-through may have contributed to these inflation puzzles. Applying the Threshold VAR model proposed by Alessandri and Mumtaz (2017) to the analysis of the wage-price pass-through, the paper examines whether the transmission mechanim of different types of shocks differs between recessions and expansions. The results point to differences in the wage-price pass-through between growth regimes for demand shocks but not for wage mark-up shocks. They show a much smaller response of prices relative to wages, i.e. a smaller wage-price pass-through, for demand shocks in recessions than in expansions. This is accounted for by a smaller relative response of profit margins. More generally, the results suggest that the slope of the price Phillips curve flattens in recessions on account of the lower wage-price pass-through, while the wage Phillips curve appears to be broadly stable across growth regimes. Overall, the results contribute to solve or diminish the puzzle of the missing disinflation of the past two recessions suggesting that inflation should be expected to recede by less during recessions than indicated by standard linear models.","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127352749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Spillover Effects in International Business Cycles 国际经济周期的溢出效应

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3729957

Máximo Camacho, Matías Pacce, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

{"title":"Spillover Effects in International Business Cycles","authors":"Máximo Camacho, Matías Pacce, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3729957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3729957","url":null,"abstract":"To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we show the high performance of the model in computing inferences of the unobserved factors, accounting for the spillover effects, and estimating the model's parameters. We apply our proposal to data from the G7 economies by analyzing the responses of national factors to shocks in foreign factors and by quantifying the changes in national GDP expectations in response to unexpected positive changes in foreign GDPs. Although the share of the world factor as a source of the international transmission of fluctuations is still significant, this is partially absorbed by the spillover transmissions. In addition, we document a pro-cyclical channel of international transmission of output growth expectations, with the US and UK being the countries that generate the greatest spillovers and Germany and Japan being the countries that generate the smallest spillovers. Therefore, policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of foreign business cycle expectations. JEL Classification: E32, C22, F42, F41","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132662130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0