{"title":"Import Response to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Micro-Level Investigation","authors":"Y. Li, Juanyi Xu, C. Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2580225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2580225","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents theory and evidence on firms' import responses to exchange rate fluctuations using disaggregated Chinese imports data. The paper develops a heterogeneous-firm trade model that predicts import responses at both extensive and intensive margins as well as the more profound adjustment under ordinary trade than processing trade. Next, the paper empirically investigates import responses to exchange rate fluctuations at extensive and intensive margins in both the short run and the long run, and confirms the model predictions. We also find variations among import responses under different exchange rate regimes, including fixed exchange rate, expected appreciation, and confirmed appreciation.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131623952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Changes in China's Bond and Foreign Exchange Market and Their Effects on Korea","authors":"I. Moon, Da Young Yang, In Huh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2770204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2770204","url":null,"abstract":"This report focuses on analyzing the changes in China's bond and foreign exchange market and their effects on South Korea. This study outlines the Chinese government's bonds policy, status of the bond market, direction of future development and et cetera. It examines the changes, status and outlook of the Chinese exchange rates system. It contains an empirical analysis on the effects of the fluctuation of Chinese bond interest rates on South Korea's bond interest rates, and on factors determining the Won-RMB exchange rates.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133364497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects","authors":"D. He, Paul Luk, Wenlang Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2550713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550713","url":null,"abstract":"The use of international currencies in the global financial system is not symmetric: while a few currencies have been primarily used as investing currencies, a few others have mostly served as funding currencies; only a handful have a better balance functioning as both investing and funding currencies. This paper develops a three-currency model to study the determinants of the demand for assets and liabilities denominated in an international currency, and attempts to shed light on the prospects for the renminbi as a budding international currency. We show that interest rate differentials would be only one of the factors shaping the renminbi's position, while other factors, including the correlation between foreign countries' economic growth and their bilateral exchange rates against the renminbi, and the correlation between exchange rates of the renminbi with other international currencies, would also be important. A broad interpretation of these findings is that the renminbi will likely be very attractive to investors from high-income economies and fund-raisers from emerging market economies.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133317664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Exchange Derivatives and Bank Lending in China","authors":"Wen Si","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2490362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2490362","url":null,"abstract":"With the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, China’s banks expose to more exchange rate risks and use foreign exchange derivatives to manage these risks. This paper develops a theoretical model to examine the relationship between foreign exchange derivatives and the foreign currency lending in China’s banking sector. In our model, banks choose lending activities in a way analogous to Cournot competition commonly described in industrial organization. We find there is the positive effect of the derivatives position on the total loan volumes under the condition that the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function of bank using derivatives displays either constant or decreasing absolute risk aversion. In the empirical section, we use Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with China’s monthly data over the period from Jan 2007 to Jun 2014. Based on techniques commonly used in the VAR literature, the main results suggest that the foreign exchange derivatives transaction has bi-directional Granger causality with bank’s foreign currency loan volume, and derivatives transaction has a significantly and persistently positive effect on bank lending. Furthermore, we find that derivatives transaction accounts for over 40 percent of variations in loan volume in the long run.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131617377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the Contemporary Globalized World: Should They Be Still Treated Separately?","authors":"Marcin Humanicki, R. Kelm, K. Olszewski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2369231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2369231","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) have been long considered as distinct and independent forms of international capital flows, but in the globalized world there are reasons to treat them as interconnected phenomena. This paper analyzes the mutual relationship between FDI and FPI and attempts to answer the question whether they complement or substitute for each other from a foreign investor’s point of view. Firstly, the paper describes the main characteristics of FDI and FPI in terms of a trade-off between their volatility and profitability. Secondly, it provides a literature review on the determinants of these two types of foreign investment. Finally, we analyse the long-run and short-run relationships between FDI and FPI running VECM regressions on data for Poland. Our research suggests that these two forms of foreign investment are substitutes. To be more specific, in economically stable periods FDI tends to dominate over FPI, but during insecurity and economic distress, both in source and host countries, FPI starts to gain importance.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132797087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Russia and the Global Financial Crisis","authors":"A. Kudrin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2383189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2383189","url":null,"abstract":"The present financial crisis is a further link in the chain of crises widely described in economics literature. As recently as in the 1990s the global economy was affected by a number of crises which had an impact on several whole groups of countries. In 1992-1993 several countries of the European Union (United Kingdom, Italy, Sweden, Norway and Finland) suffered currency crises. In 1994-1995 a severe crisis which had started in Mexico expanded to other countries in Latin America. In 1997-1998 a global financial crisis began in the countries of Southeast Asia (Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines), and then spread to Eastern Europe (Russia and several countries of the former USSR) and Latin America (Brazil).","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125983485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economic Consequences of China-Africa Relations: Debunking Myths in the Debate","authors":"S. Asongu, Gilbert Aminkeng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2493358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2493358","url":null,"abstract":"This study dissects with great acuteness some of the big questions on China-Africa relations in order to debunk burgeoning myths surrounding the nexus. It reviews a wealth of recent literature and presents the debate in three schools of thought. No substantial empirical evidence is found to back-up sinister prophesies of coming catastrophe from critics of the direction of China-Africa relations. In the mean, the relationship from an economic standpoint is promising and encouraging but more needs to be done regarding multilateral relations, improvement of institutions and sustainability of resources management. A number of positive signs suggest that China is heading toward the direction which would provide openings for a multipolar dialogue. While benefiting in the short-run, African governments have the capacity to tailor this relationship and address some socio-economic matters arising that may negatively affect the nexus in the long-term. Policy implications are discussed.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116431833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"AZƏRBAYCANIN XARİCİ TİCARƏTİNİN NƏZƏRİ BAZASI VE MODERNLƏŞMƏ ZƏRURİLİYİ (The Theoretical Basis of Azerbaijan's Foreign Trade and the Need for Modernization)","authors":"Berrin Bolek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2390742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390742","url":null,"abstract":"<b> Azerbaijani Abstract:</b> Bugün dünya böyük bir bazar halına gelmiştir və bu bazarda hər gün böyük dəyişikliklər gədir, beynəlxalq iqtisadi əlaqələr və elmi-texniki əməkdaşlıq artır, inkişaf edir. Оdur ki, bu gün хаrici ticаrətinin inkişаf səviyyəsi ölkələrin iqtisаdi inkişаf səviyyəsini müəyyən еdən ən mühüm göstəricilərdən biridir. Аzərbаycаn Rеspublikаsındа аpаrılаn аrdıcıl islаhаtlаr nəticəsində iqtisаdiyyаtın bütün sаhələrində sürətli inkişаfа nаil оlunmuşdur. Ölkənin dünyаnın inkişаf еtmiş dövlətlərinin inkişаf səviyyəsinə çаtmаsı üçün аrdıcıl və sistеmli şəkildə islаhаtlаr həyаtа kеçirilməkdədir. 2012-ci ildə 150-dən artıq ölkə ilə ticari əməkdaşlıq əden Azərbaycan bir çox beynəlxalq iqtisadi və maliyyə qurumlarının da üzvüdür. <b>English Abstract:</b> Nowadays, the world has become a large market and big changes are coming in every day. International economic relations are growing, scientific and technical cooperation is increasing. Foreign trade, which is one of the most important indicators, is determining the level of economic development of countries. As a result of swift reforms in the Republic of Azerbaijan has been supplying the rapid development in all areas of the economy. Azerbaijan has systematic and continuous innovation to achieve the level of developed countries. Azerbaijan is a member of many international economic and financial institutions and entered into trade relations with more than 150 countries in 2012.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115642402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Market in April 2013","authors":"Nikita Andrievskiy, E. Khudko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2271036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2271036","url":null,"abstract":"The stock market’s behavior was influenced in the main by the declining oil futures prices. The negative dynamics of stock indexes resulted in a drop of the stock market’s capitalization over the month by 3.71%; however, Blue Chips demonstrated growth to 9.07% per month and to 13.81% per annum. The situation on Russia’s domestic corporate bond market remained stable. On the whole, in April both the market volume and market index were on the rise; investor activity on the primary and secondary market segments continued to be high. The emitters were punctually fulfilling their obligations to their bond holders.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"21 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120857009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Current Account Dynamics in Selected Transition Economies","authors":"Aleksander Aristovnik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2239663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2239663","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the question of whether the current account deficits seen in selected transition economies in recent years mainly as a symptom of the dynamic economic activity of the catching-up process are a source of potential macroeconomic destabilisation. Given the significant reduction of capital flows, as well as restrictions and lessons from recent financial crises, current account deficits must be closely monitored in the region. In this respect, the issue of ‘current account sustainability’ in seventeen transition economies is investigated. For this purpose, two accounting frameworks (Milesi-Ferreti, Razin (1996) and Reisen (1998)) based on certain strict assumptions are employed. The results show that if the observed level of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is kept in the medium run almost all countries could optimally have a higher level of external deficit, with the exception of countries such as Baltic States, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova and Romania. Accordingly, the maintenance of relatively large FDI inflows to national economies is a key priority in securing future external sustainability. In the end, the results indicate that current account deficits of transition economies that exceed 5 percent of GDP generally involve problems of their external sustainability.","PeriodicalId":259955,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Transition Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129030662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}