Nilna Almumtazah, N. Azizah, Y. L. Putri, D. C. R. Novitasari
{"title":"Prediksi Jumlah Mahasiswa Baru Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier Sederhana","authors":"Nilna Almumtazah, N. Azizah, Y. L. Putri, D. C. R. Novitasari","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15465","url":null,"abstract":"Jumlah mahasiswa baru suatu universitas selama 5 tahun terakhir yaitu mulai tahun 2016 hingga tahun 2020 mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan. Data tersebut selanjutnya akan digunakan untuk memprediksi pada tahun mendatang. Tujuan dibuat sebuah prediksi adalah untuk mengetahui rasio dosen yang tersedia dengan jumlah mahasiswa baru, mempersiapkan ruang kuliah dan juga fasilitas lainnya. Salah satu metode dengan penggunaan data masa lampau untuk melakukan prediksi adalah dengan metode regresi linier. Pada penelitian ini yang menjadi variabel bebas adalah periode tahun akademik sedangkan yang menjadi variabel terikat adalah jumlah mahasiswa baru. Data yang akan digunakan merupakan data mahasiswa baru fakultas sains dan teknologi yang terdiri dari 6 program studi dengan nilai MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) yaitu matematika , ilmu kelautan , biologi , sistem informasi , arsitektur , dan teknik lingkungan . Berdasarkan hasil analisis data tersebut juga didapatkan prediksi jumlah mahasiswa baru 5 tahun kedepan dengan hasil cenderung turun untuk setiap program studi.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131329041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Identifikasi Model Generalized Space-time Autoregressive (GSTAR) untuk Nilai Inflasi di Pulau Sulawesi","authors":"Nur'eni, D. Lusiyanti, I. Gunawan","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15522","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to identify a forecast model for the value of inflation at seven locations on the island of Sulawesi, namely Palu, Makassar, Gorontalo, Kendari, Manado, Mamuju and Palopo. Estimation of the parameters of the GSTAR model is carried out using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method with uniform location weights. The analysis results show that the GSTAR model (1,1) can be used to predict the value of inflation in Sulawesi Island.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"2015 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114445745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dinamika Populasi Pada Ekosistem Mangrove","authors":"Hajar, J. Puspita, N. Nacong, Ridwan","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15534","url":null,"abstract":"Budidaya mangrove merupakan salah satu upaya untuk meminimalisir kerusakan ekosistem laut dan lingkungan sekitarnya saat terjadi tsunami. Eksistensi ekosistem mangrove perlu dijaga dan dilestarikan secara berkelanjutan. Kepiting Uca memiliki peranan penting pada rantai makanan yang berlangsung dalam ekosistem mangrove. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengkaji interaksi antara populasi mangrove dan populasi kepiting Uca dalam ekosistem mangrove melalui pendekatan model matematika. Kami memperoleh empat titik kritis dari model yang telah dibangun. Tiga titik kritis dari model matematika eksis tanpa syarat, namun tidak stabil. Sedangkan titik kritis keempat yang menggambarkan kondisi koeksistensi populasi mangrove dan kepiting Uca dapat dijamin kestabilan lokalnya jika syarat kestabilannya terpenuhi. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa kehadiran populasi kepiting Uca dapat menjaga kelestarian ekosistem mangrove. Simulasi numerik diberikan untuk mendukung hasil analitik. \u0000 ","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114882182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model Regresi Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB) untuk Pemodelan Konsumsi Rokok di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah","authors":"D. I. Purnama","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2021.v18.i1.15506","url":null,"abstract":"The average expenditure on cigarettes per capita in Sulawesi Tengah Province has increased in 2020. There are several factors that can affect a person's cigarette consumption including gender, age, education and health. To model cigarette consumption with several influencing factors can be use the poison regression model or the Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. However, the two regression models cannot solve the excess zero and overdispersion problems so use the Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB) regression model. The results of the analysis of cigarette consumption data in Central Sulawesi Province using the HNB model provide the best modeling results compared to the poisson regression model and the ZIP model because it has the smallest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) value. The results of testing the factors that significantly influence cigarette consumption in Central Sulawesi Province in the HNB regression model, namely the count model are gender, age and health. Whereas in the zerohurdle model, it is gender, age and education.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116133636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Penyelesaian Vehicle Routing Problem Untuk Efisiensi Rute Pendistribusian Produk Minuman Teh Pucuk Harum Menggunakan metode Saving Matriks Studi Kasus (PT. Cipta Niaga Semesta Palu)","authors":"R. Putrafi, A. Sahari","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15164","url":null,"abstract":"Vehicle Routing Problem Is a Problem related to the route of product distribution to the consumers. With the existence of these problems a company is expected to seek away a way so that the distribution process can arrive on time to scattered consumers and obtain more efficient routes and costs. Therefore a method which can help the process of scheduling a good route and obtaining optimum costs and efficient delivery was used. One of the methods used was Saving Matrix, which in its operation could efficient the delivery route so that the minimum total distance was obtained. The company's actual mileage was greater than the distance travelled by the route after using the Saving Matrix method. The total difference in distance produced was 106,35 km or more saving 41,2 % from the actual distance of the company and using Saving Matrix could save the distribution costs of Rp. 5.687.640 or save 33,8 % of the cost before applying the method.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123035141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model Matematika Pengendalian Penyebaran Penyakit Schistosomiasis Menggunakan Itik Sebagai Musuh Alami Bagi Keong Perantara Schistosomiasis","authors":"I. Karini, R. Ratianingsih","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15163","url":null,"abstract":"In Indonesia Schistosomiasis is only found in Central Sulawesi Province, in the highlands of Lindu, the Napu plateau and the Bada plateau, Poso Regency. The disease is caused by the Schistosoma japonicum worm which requires an intermediary host, namely the Oncomelania hupensis lindoensis snail, which is an endemic animal in the area. This study examined mathematically the control of the spread of Schistosomiasis by using ducks as natural enemies for intermediate snails. The human population is divided into vulnerable human subpopulations and a subpopulation of infected humans. Interactions between snail populations and duck populations are expressed as interactions between Predator and Prey. The Schistosoma japonicum worm population is seen as a population growth cycle model. The stability of the model is analyzed using the Jacobi matrix, which is evaluated at a critical point. The model has two critical points 𝑇1 and 𝑇2 which represent a disease-free conditions, while 𝑇3 represents endemic point. Mathematical model simulations controlling the spread of Schistosomiasis. The simulation is using ducks with early populations indicate that disease control by using ducks is less effective because it takes a very long time to be estimated at 55 years. Keywords : Conch Oncomelania Hupensis Lindoensis, Duck, Schistosomiasis, Schistosoma Japonicum Worm.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125045941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimalisasi Persediaan Bahan Bakar Solar Pada PT. Macindo Mitra Raya Dengan Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)","authors":"M. Rizanjani, A. Sahari, D. Lusiyanti","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15172","url":null,"abstract":"PT. Macindo Mitra Raya is a type of diesel oil (BBM) industrial company that supplies diesel fuel to full fill industrial nesercity, where one of the prices of diesel is the cost of inventory that needs to be managed. This study aims to determine the total cost of diesel fuel type inventories and determine the amount of stock of diesel fuel that is economical at PT. MACINDO MITRA RAYA through the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method. To calculation the number of economical orders, the formula √ 2𝐷𝑆 𝐻 is used. Then to determine the total fuel inventory cost, the formula √2𝐷𝑆𝐻 is used where D is the annual fuel order, S as the order ordering cost and H as the total ordering cost per message. From the results of the study indicate that the economical order for PT.Macindo Mitra Raya is 48,814.07 liters and the amount of inventory costs is Rp. 1,199,039,533. From the results obtained from the research conducted it has implications for the greatest efficiency in the cost of inventory of PT. Macindo Mitra Raya.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122400398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Kestabilan Model Matematika Infeksi Primer Penyakit Varicella Dan Infeksi Rekuren Penyakit Herpes Zoster Oleh Virus Varicella Zoster","authors":"Hardiyanti, R. Ratianingsih, Hajar","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2020.v17.i1.15180","url":null,"abstract":"Varicella and herpes zoster are two infectious skin diseases of human that caused by varicella zoster virus, where varicella disease is a primary infection that often infected younger people while herpes zoster disease is a recurrent disease that often infected older people because of reactivation of latent varicella-zoster virus. If the pain caused by herpes zoster after recurrent phase is a appeared then the condition is known as postherpetic neuralgia. This study builds a mathematical model of primary infection (varicella disease) and recurrent infection (herpes zoster disease) developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). The human population is divided into seven subpopulations, namely susceptible, infection, recovered of varicella, herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia subpopulation. Stability analysis at the critical point by linearization method gives a critical point 𝑇1 that guaranted to exist and unstable if 𝛼 𝜇(𝛽1+𝜇) 𝐴 , while the critical point 𝑇1 does not have any reqruitment. Stability analysis at the endemic disease-free critical point is represented 𝑇1 that will be unstable if 𝑇2 exist and stable 𝑇1 if 𝑇2 exist. Numerical simulations by simulated to describe such temporary disease-free conditions and an endemic stable conditions.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122577974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Bakteri Pumbuluh Kayu Cengkeh (BPKC)","authors":"Chijra, R. Ratianingsih, Hajar","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2019.v16.i2.14985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2019.v16.i2.14985","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTClove wood vessels is one of the most damaging diseases of clove plants. This disease is caused by the bacterial Ralstonia Syzygii. the bacterial Rasltonia Syzygii lives in clove wood vessels. The bacterial Ralstonia Syzygii ispread through the Hindola Spp vector. The matemathical model that represents the spread of the disease isdeveloped from the SEI model (Suspectible, Exposed, Infected). The model gives 4 critical points 𝑇1, 𝑇2, 𝑇3 and 𝑇4 exist interaction between bacterial population Ralstonia Syzygii and Hindola Spp vector is less than the level of vulnerable clove recruitman divided by carrying capacity of Ralstonia Syzygii bacterial multiplied by Hindola Spp carrying capacity. The results of system stability analysis at the critical point using linearization give unstable three critical points 𝑇1, 𝑇2, 𝑇3which describes equilibrium conditions and a stable 𝑇4 critical point which describes endemic conditions. Numerical simulations are carried out to describe temporary disease-free conditions, and stable endemic conditionsKeywords : Clove Wood vessel Disease, Linierization Method, SEI Model","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127345262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"KONDISI MINIMAL IDEAL KIRI TERURUT PADA SEMIGRUP TERNER TERURUT PARSIAL","authors":"A. Andri, N. Nacong","doi":"10.22487/2540766x.2018.v15.i2.13225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22487/2540766x.2018.v15.i2.13225","url":null,"abstract":"Ternary semigroups 𝑇 is obtained from a nonempty set 𝑇 that given a mapping with a multiplication operation ternary that satisfied closed and associative properties. So, generally a ternary semigroup is an abstraction of a semigroup structure. Meanwhile, partially ordered ternary semigroups 𝑇 is an ordered semigroup 𝑇 that satisfies the properties for each 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑 ∈ 𝑇 if 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏 then (𝑎𝑐𝑑) ≤ (𝑏𝑐𝑑) and (𝑑𝑐𝑎) ≤ (𝑑𝑐𝑏). In a ternary semigroups there is also concept of left ideals. This study was conducted to examine the characteristics of ordered left ideals on partially ordered ternary semigroups. Furthermore, it will be discussed about the characteristics of minimal ordered left ideals on partially ordered semigroups.Keywords : Ternary Semigroups, Ordered Ternary Semigroups, Left Ideals, Ordered Left Ideals, Minimal of Ordered Left Ideals.","PeriodicalId":259622,"journal":{"name":"JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114464736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}