G. Romanin-Jacur, Giorgia Mondin, A. Liguori, F. Menegazzo
{"title":"Assistance to Palliative Pediatric Patients: Simulation Model","authors":"G. Romanin-Jacur, Giorgia Mondin, A. Liguori, F. Menegazzo","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.77","url":null,"abstract":"Pediatric Palliative Cares are an approach which improves patients' and their families' life quality in front of the problem connected with life-threatening and life-limiting diseases. The two current assistance types are Home Integrated Assistance and Hospice, while acute hospital places, in competition against ordinary patients, are required in case of more severe disease phases or lack of alternative possibilities. A stochastic model, describing pediatric palliative assistance behavior and its use by patients, has been built, in order to evidence critical points and possible deficiencies in the assistance network, to suggest remedial work and evaluate consequent effects. Different policies in addressing patients to various assistance types have been examined. The model has been simulated by tool Arena and experimentally applied to Veneto Region in Italy. The results report, for every adopted policy and different resource dimensioning: a) the average number of rejected ordinary patients and respectively palliative patients trying to enter hospital departments, b) the average number of rejected palliative patients trying to enter hospice and respectively home integrated assistance. The scope lays in finding achievable policies reducing total costs.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128965355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessment of Organization Development Speed Based on the Analysis of Standards Efficiency","authors":"Y. Klochkov, A. Gazizulina, N. Golovin","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.93","url":null,"abstract":"Standardization has proven to be an efficient regulation mechanism as well as means for storage of best experience. For instance, lean production methods developed in Japan emphasize the importance of decision standardization. In our paper we describe the method for assisting company competitiveness based on evaluation of standardization quality of processes, technologies implemented at a company and products being manufactured. Our method regards standardization as an instrument for analysis of company efficiency, rather than as a process. Indeed, production of new goods of high demand involves revision of design of these goods and technologies for their production. Therefore, the implementation dynamics of new rules, procedures and norms is increasing. Analysis of this dynamics can give us data about company development and development of some particular processes. Comparing development speed of two competing companies can help us to forecast their state of business. To illustrate the described method we give some real data of one of industrial company which produces automobile components as well as data of one of international airports in Russia.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126376511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Locally Optimal Inventory Control with Time Delay in Deliveries and Incomplete Information on Demand","authors":"V. Smagin, G. Koshkin, Konstantin S. Kim","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.99","url":null,"abstract":"Algorithm for inventory control with incomplete information about the model of demand is proposed. Algorithm is synthesized taking into account time delay. Inventory control algorithm based on local criterion with using Kalman filtering for systems with unknown input is constructed. Examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126512749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corridor Singe Window as an Innovative Instrument Ensuring Integrity of the Entire Supply Chain of the Transport Corridor","authors":"Algirdas Akalys, L. Greičiūnė, Raimondas Akalys","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.113","url":null,"abstract":"The East -- West Transport Corridor (EWTC) in the Southern part of the Baltic Sea Region is an effective testing area for the development of new business models for collaborative logistics flows fulfilling customers' needs and taking economic, social and environmental responsibility into account. Innovated ITS services are needed to support transportation activities along the corridor. This is especially important for the EWTC due to its physical nature, interchange points, multi-language and cross boarder interaction. Information on a constantly updated traffic situation and interchange status, tracking of goods, booking and confirmation services, intelligent truck parking and services opening faster border crossing routes would ensure more efficient transportation and handling thereof. One of the main EU eMAR project (the paper is based on its outcomes) findings is that the Corridor's Single Window (CSW) model will enable: transferring all information via one standard communication channel without creating integration interfaces for each separate information system along the EWTC, enhancement of the end-to-end supply chain security by ensuring integrity of the entire supply chain and prompt risk assessment through CSW as data sharing instrument between the authorities and commercial stakeholders in the EWTC, as well as facilitation of integration of long distance and last mile transportation.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116134472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Use of Stochastic Models for Operational Efficiency Analysis of Multi Power Source Traction Drives","authors":"I. Bolvashenkov, H. Herzog","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.30","url":null,"abstract":"Modern development of new technologies, equipment and materials in the field of electric power engineering has allowed a fresh look at the problem of increasing economic efficiency, environmental performance and reliability of electric propulsion for different types of the vehicle drive trains. Considering the higher requirements regarding reliability and fault tolerance, efficiency, ecological parameters and limitations on the installation space and weight of the all traction equipment, the correct choice of type and design features of the electric propulsion drive is extremely important carry out on the basis of a system approach. This paper describes the experience of using stochastic models to assess the operational efficiency of the vehicle electric propulsion systems, consisting of a few generating elements, and one or more traction motors. This type of propulsion system is typical for the icebreakers, arctic cargo ships, diesel-electric locomotives, hybrid cars and aircraft. The deterministic approach does not allow evaluate probabilistic character of operational processes, such as energy output of thermal engines, operational fuel consumption, load modes of traction electric motors, as well as a large number of random factors affecting the accuracy of the simulation results.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130193100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shay Toledano, Inna Gartsman, Guy Avitan, I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin
{"title":"On Markov Reward Approach to Failure Criticality Importance Assessment for Aging Multi-state System","authors":"Shay Toledano, Inna Gartsman, Guy Avitan, I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.66","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the Markov Reward approach to failure critical importance assessment for the aging multi-state system. Aging is treated as increasing failure rate. Failure criticality importance for multi-state system is directly calculated via calculation of mean number of system failures. The suggested approach presents the non-homogeneous Markov reward model for computation of this importance measure for aging multi-state system under minimal repair. The model incorporates time-varying failure rates into ordinary Markov reward model. Corresponding procedures for reward matrix definition are suggested for this importance measure. A numerical example is presented in order to illustrate the approach.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"174 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134011335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Phase-Type Models for Competing Risks","authors":"B. Lindqvist","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.17","url":null,"abstract":"We extend the phase-type methodology for modeling of lifetime distributions to the case of competing risks. This is done by considering finite state Markov chains in continuous time with more than one absorbing state, letting each absorbing state correspond to a particular risk. We study statistical estimation from (possibly censored) competing risks data modeled by the phase-type approach. Using results from the literature we consider estimation via the EM algorithm as well as Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Treatment of covariates in competing risks data is also be discussed.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"84 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133072771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of the Present Values of Life Annuities for the Different Actuarial Models","authors":"G. Koshkin, O. Gubina","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.89","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with the problem of estimating the actuarial present value of the continuous whole life and n-year term life annuities. We synthesize nonparametric estimators of these statuses of life annuity. The main parts of their asymptotic mean square errors for these estimators and their limit distributions are found. By individuals' death moments, both parametric and nonparametric estimates are constructed for the models of the whole and n-year term life insurance. The asymptotic normality and mean square convergence of the proposed estimators are proved. The simulations show that the empirical mean square errors of life annuity estimates decrease when the sample size increases. Also, when the model distribution is changed, the nonparametric estimates are more adaptable in comparison with parametric estimates, oriented on the best results only for the given distributions.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132408683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonparametric Algorithms of Identification and Prediction in the ARX-Models","authors":"G. Koshkin, Vadim Yu. Lukov, I. G. Piven","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.109","url":null,"abstract":"To identify an unknown function defining of a nonlinear ARX-process, we use kernel regression estimators. The principal parts of mean square errors for these estimators are found. The proposed algorithms are applied to the real data processing.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131303870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Trujillo Diaz, Javier Dario Vallejo Cubillos, H. Bolívar
{"title":"Application for Decision-Making in Transportation Logistics Function: Supply Chain Colombian Green Coffee","authors":"J. Trujillo Diaz, Javier Dario Vallejo Cubillos, H. Bolívar","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.100","url":null,"abstract":"The following article presents a review on the state of the art five basic criteria that a decision maker in the Supply Chain (SC) should consider in selecting carriers for the supply channel with suppliers and for channel distribution with distributors: opportunity, flexibility, cost savings, efficiency / productivity and technology. These are validated to a case study of SC Colombian green coffee, through the technical outranking multicriteria decision (ELECTRE), which seeks Carriers Selection (CS) under criteria. One of the contributions of this research is the methodology for decision making from building criteria from the literature to the application of ELECTRE technique. The second contribution to the decision maker in any SC is that he could take the code developed in Matlab and run at any time as making support organizational, logistical or production decisions, for any problem of selection, classification and prioritization.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132340632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}