{"title":"The A/B Test Deception: Divergent Delivery, Ad Response Heterogeneity, and Erroneous Inferences in Online Advertising Field Experiments","authors":"Michael Braun, Eric M. Schwartz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896024","url":null,"abstract":"Advertisers and researchers use tools provided by advertising platforms to conduct randomized experiments for testing user responses to creative elements in online ads. Internally valid comparisons between ads require the mix of experimental users exposed to each ad to be similar across all ads. But that internal validity is threatened when platforms' targeting algorithms deliver each ad to its own optimized mix of users, which diverges across ads. We extend the potential outcomes model of causal inference to treat random assignment of ads and the user exposure states for each ad as two separate decisions. We then demonstrate how targeting ads to users leads advertisers to incorrectly infer which ad performs better, based on aggregate test results. Through analysis and simulation, we characterize how bias in the aggregate estimate of the difference between two ads' lifts is driven by the interplay between heterogeneous responses to different ads and how platforms deliver ads to divergent subsets of users. We also identify conditions for an undetectable \"Simpson's reversal,\" in which all unobserved types of users may prefer ad A over ad B, but the advertiser mistakenly infers from aggregate experimental results that users prefer ad B over ad A.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"707 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133486622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Operations Approach For Reducing Glycemic Variability: Evidence from a Large Primary Care Setting","authors":"V. Ahuja, Carlos A. Alvarez, B. Staats","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3440355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3440355","url":null,"abstract":"Diabetes is a highly prevalent and expensive chronic disease that affects millions of Americans and is associated with multiple comorbidities. Clinical research has found long-term variation in a patient's glycated hemoglobin (A1c) levels to be linked with adverse health outcomes such as increased hospitalizations. Consequently, there is a need for innovative approaches to reduce long-term glycemic variability, and efficient ways to implement them. We draw on the management and healthcare literatures to hypothesize and then show that a key operational lever – continuity of care (CoC) – can be used to reduce glycemic variability, which in turn improves patient health. Additionally, we explore the moderating role of a key demographic characteristic – the patient's marital status – and the mediating role of medication compliance in the relationship between continuity and variability. We use a detailed and comprehensive dataset from the Veterans Health Administration, the largest integrated healthcare delivery system in the United States, which permits us to control for potential sources of heterogeneity. We analyze more than 300,000 patients – over an eleven-year period – with diabetes, a chronic disease whose successful management requires managing glycemic variability. We find that CoC is related to reductions in glycemic variability, more so for patients who are not married. However, this reduction is not linear in continuity; we find evidence of curvilinearity but with a sufficiently high stationary point so that benefits almost always accrue, albeit at a diminishing rate. Additionally, we find that an important mechanism through which CoC may reduce variability is through patients' adherence to medications. We also find evidence of partial mediation for glycemic variability in the CoC-outcomes process chain. Our counterfactual analysis reveals the extent of improvement and cost savings – in the order of tens of millions of dollars – that enhanced continuity can bring, depending on where it is targeted. Our findings are validated by extensive robustness checks and sensitivity analyses. Academically, our study adds to the understanding of the importance of managing variability (via continuity in service) in settings where customers repeatedly interact with service providers. Identifying the process measures through which continuity of care reduces variability is also of interest to practitioners and policymakers as it can help design appropriate policies and pathways, both in terms of processes and staffing/work allocation.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"594 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115428018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"M-Commerce, Sales Concentration, and Inventory Management","authors":"Nitish Jain, T. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3763707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3763707","url":null,"abstract":"Problem definition: The mobile commerce (m-commerce) channel is poised to be the future of online markets. It offers search features distinct from conventional personal computer (PC)-based e-commerce channels. Its easy accessibility extends the time available for customers to search, although its shopping environment constraints (e.g., small screen size, single-tab browsing) may inflate search costs. Collectively, these competing features cause ambiguity about the mobile channel’s true effect on sales concentration—a key criterion in managing retail operations. The focus of this study is to understand the net impact of the mobile channel on driving sales concentration. Academic/practical relevance: Our study extends the empirical literature focusing on online retailers’ channel strategies and their implication on operations practice. It examines differences in primary online channels—mobile and PC—on shaping sales concentration across products and the cost of ignoring such a difference on inventory management, a core decision for operations managers. Methodology: We collaborate with a large online apparel retailer to access customer-level transactional data. We identify the mobile channel’s effect on sales concentration using a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages a quasi-experiment stemming from the retailer’s decision to discontinue its PC sales channel. Results: We find that the mobile channel increases the share of popular products by 6.4% compared with the PC channel. We also identify scenarios where ignoring this significant sales concentration difference will yield suboptimal inventory stocking by 4.2%–12.9%. Managerial implications: Our paper highlights that the mobile and PC channels have different sales concentrations because of different search features. Ignoring this difference affects inventory decisions, such as safety and cycle inventory levels. Therefore, it is imperative for managers to revise their status quo strategies, such as on inventory procurement, assortment planning, and product display, when integrating m-commerce with e-commerce.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"142 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124543969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mattia Landoni, Winthrop H. Smith, Christopher Cameron
{"title":"Online Appendix to 'Linking Policy to Outcomes: A Simple Framework for Debt Maturity Management'","authors":"Mattia Landoni, Winthrop H. Smith, Christopher Cameron","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3547079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547079","url":null,"abstract":"We characterize the long-run stable maturity distribution induced by a fixed issuance policy, defined as the maturity mix of new issues, thereby providing a method to link issuance policies with their long-run consequences. We derive closed-form expressions for a new class of forward-looking stable metrics, including per-period refinancing need, debt service cost, and average maturity — an indicator of the supply of long-term bonds. We use these metrics to provide a normative analysis of the classical debt-management trade-off between refinancing risk and debt service cost. Our results indicate that the US Treasury could move closer to the “efficient frontier” by tilting its issuance towards notes.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126041081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Slow and Steady, or Fast and Furious? An Empirical Study about Omnichannel Demand Sensitivity to Fulfillment Lead Time","authors":"S. Lim, Fei Gao, T. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3544824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3544824","url":null,"abstract":"We examine a large transaction-level data set of an Italian omnichannel furniture retailer to study channel-specific effects of fulfillment lead time on demand. This omnichannel retailer sells the same products and has the same product fulfillment across three channels – showroom, online and catalog. A showroom channel carries no inventory but allows customers to touch and feel the products. An online channel provides a website for consumers to browse and order the products. A catalog channel sends a product catalog to all the households in Italy for them to place an order over the phone. We find that the showroom channel makes consumers less sensitive to fulfillment lead time than both online and catalog channels. In particular, a 10% increase in lead time (1.84 days from the sample mean of 18.35 days) causes a 0.85% reduction in the sales per order (~ EUR 7.6 from the sample mean of EUR 889.94) at the showroom, less than the reduction of 1.14% and 1.23% in the online and the catalog channels, respectively. This finding contradicts the common practical and theoretical assumption about homogeneous lead time sensitivity across channels. In addition, we find that niche products and experience goods accentuate the difference of lead time sensitivity between showroom and non-physical channels. We further develop a stylized model to study the implications of our empirical findings for the design of an omnichannel retailer’s facility network. Given our finding that shows the showroom wait sensitivity is smaller than online wait sensitivity, retailers should build fewer but larger showrooms than the homogeneous wait sensitivity suggests.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127232197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tricks of the Trade? Pre-Issuance Price Maneuvers by Underwriter-Dealers","authors":"J. Auh, You Suk Kim, Mattia Landoni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3132177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3132177","url":null,"abstract":"We study the trading of dealers around new bond issues underwritten by their affiliates using a complete matched record of U.S. bond market transactions, bond issue deals, and underwriter ownership structure from 2005 to 2015. Compared to dealers unaffiliated with the lead underwriter, affiliated dealers pay up to 54 basis points more for the issuer's preexisting bonds—prior to, during, and after the issuance event. We interpret this phenomenon as cross-security price support and, prior to the event, price maneuvers aimed at lowering the reference yield for new issue investors. By examining dealer inventories and profits, we find no support for alternative explanations such as hedging, informed trading, or competitive advantage in market-making.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125120197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brian R. Dineen, D. Vandewalle, R. Noe, Lusi Wu, Daniel E. Lockhart
{"title":"Who Cares About Demands–Abilities Fit? Moderating Effects of Goal Orientation on Recruitment and Organizational Entry Outcomes","authors":"Brian R. Dineen, D. Vandewalle, R. Noe, Lusi Wu, Daniel E. Lockhart","doi":"10.1111/PEPS.12252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/PEPS.12252","url":null,"abstract":"The authors conduct three studies to systematically examine how avoiding and learning goal orientation (AGO and LGO) influence relationships between perceived demands-abilities (DA) fit and critical outcomes during three organizational entry stages. Study 1, a multilevel study using a series of mock job advertisements, shows that participant likelihood of applying for jobs for which they perceive higher DA fit increases when AGO is stronger. Study 2 finds a stronger positive relationship between perceived DA fit and internship satisfaction among interns with a stronger AGO. Study 3 finds a stronger positive relationship between perceived DA fit and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) among new organizational entrants with a stronger AGO. Implications and future research directions regarding the importance of goal orientation during job search and organizational entry are discussed. \u0000 \u0000This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115596368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social Connections within Executive Teams and Management Forecasts","authors":"Ruihao Ke, Meng Li, Zhejia Ling, Y. Zhang","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2017.2925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2925","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the role of teamwork within the top executive teams in generating management forecasts. Using social connections within the executive team to capture the team’s interaction, cooperation, and teamwork, we find that social connections among team members are associated with higher management forecast accuracy, consistent with economic theories that information is dispersed within a firm and with sociology insights that social connections facilitate information sharing. Further analyses show that the association between social connections and forecast accuracy is stronger when the teams are just beginning to work together, when their firms face more uncertainty or adversity, and when the CEOs are less powerful. Our results hold for a subsample of executive teams that experience pseudo exogenous shocks to their social connectedness. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of teamwork among executives in the forecast generation process. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accou...","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131411189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Samaritan's Dilemmas, Wealth Redistribution, and Polycentricity","authors":"M. Tuszynski, R. Wagner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2734725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2734725","url":null,"abstract":"It is nearly universally presumed that redistribution can be carried out effectively only at the national or even global level, because local redistribution will be negated through personal mobility: recipients will move to high-paying jurisdictions while taxpayers will move away from those jurisdictions. To avoid this situation requires redistribution to be concentrated at national and not at local levels. In contrast to this standard line of argument, we explain how it is that redistribution is more effectively pursued at local than at national levels. To explain this reversal from standard analytical implications, we integrate three concepts that are not present in the standard analysis. These concepts are the Samaritan’s dilemma, co-production, and polycentricity. It is interaction among these three concepts that reverses the implications of the standard analysis of redistribution.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132112351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Guesstimating is Superior to Omitting: A Better Way of Addressing Sparse Data in Economic Freedom of the World","authors":"Ryan H. Murphy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2491378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2491378","url":null,"abstract":"Economic Freedom of the World, an economic index published by the Fraser Institute, has seen wide use inside and outside academia. Certain data issues arise, however, when complete data are unavailable. This paper proposes to mitigate or eliminate many of these issues by filling in the missing values using estimates derived from four regression models.","PeriodicalId":254025,"journal":{"name":"SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127955055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}